Hoosier

I recognize where pic 2 was taken.

Nice

New thread

Yeah. The ENSO is not going to do any favors as a forecasting tool for this upcoming winter, imo.

Last 30 days

July more or less evened out the temp anomalies from June.

That would be quite problematic in a major urban area.

5th time this year that ORD has been 89'd. Record is 11.

Been a little boring recently.

I understand not living life paralyzed by fear but yeah, I'd be a little nervous to get into one of those.

I flipped on the Cubs game and the crowd broke out into a cheer when it hit there. Seriously.

The names are out now. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5217557 The sons and I went to the same school. I didn't know the older one much but I knew Matt. I haven't seen him since high school so it would be stretching it to say friend but our social circles overlapped. Tragedy for the mom to have so much of the family wiped out.

OT but I know the people killed in this plane crash. Identities haven't been released yet but the last name is Weaver. The dad and sons were killed. Very sad. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/07/16/americas/canada-plane-crash-missing-people/index.html

LOT did issue an excessive heat watch for Chicago. I can't remember what Cook county criteria is but I know it is different than the rest of the cwa.

A trace? Maps must be deceiving because I was just looking at a July precip map and nobody in N IL was that dry.

Never heard that term either. I like this Carlaw person. They usually have pretty decent afds. 98/79 in the forecast for ORD on Friday. Getting close to the magic numbers.

I don't think that works for central IN. The hottest days are going to tend to have west or southwest flow, and there are no large lakes in those directions.

Yeah it's interesting. I think being a bit farther away from the source region of these airmasses plays a role. This upcoming heatwave doesn't really strike me as one of those where everybody between Moline and Chicago is going to reach 100. I think it's a bit too marginal. The UHI around Chicago could give enough of a boost to reach triple digits.

This is the Barry remnant. Although wind fields aloft are weakening, could have just enough shear for something. Wouldn't be shocked as it doesn't take much in these situations.

Another thing to watch... can the rare 100/80 day be pulled off? Not temp/dewpoint, but high/low. There have only been 8 days with a high of 100+ and a low of 80+ on the same day, with the most recent occurrence for that being July 6, 2012 (hi 103, low 82). 7 out of the 8 occurrences have been in July, so this would be the time for it.

With Chicago looking to at least get close to 100 if not make it later this week and weekend, here are some stats. Officially, Chicago has reached 100+ a total of 65 times, with the last occurrence on July 6, 2012. On average, that is almost 1 day every 2 years, but it is a bit misleading. The 65 days of 100+ have occurred in just 33 years, suggesting that it is not all that rare to get multiple such days in a year when it does happen. Several year gaps between 100 degree days are not uncommon. 43 out of 65 days have been 100 or 101, so roughly 2/3 of the time. It is much more unusual to get to 103+ To weave some cold talk into this and throw beavis a bone... the largest spread in temperatures in the same year is 126 degrees, which happened in 1985 (-27 for lowest temp, 99 for highest temp). Chicago reached -23 at the end of January, so in order to achieve a 126 degree spread, Chicago would have to hit 103. Might be tough to do but may at least get kind of close.

I am buying into the idea of at least 1 day of 100 at ORD late week/weekend. Thursday gets pretty warm aloft but with it being sort of the transition day of the really hot airmass coming in, I could see it falling short. Friday looks like a bit better shot to me at this time... it should still be quite warm aloft and the starting point on Friday morning should be very warm (80 ish). Not really going to focus too much on Sat/Sun yet.

GFS flipped a little for Saturday over the past 3 runs

I am curious if an actual 100 degree streak will materialize and not just a one off. Just thinking back on past 100 degree streaks for Chicago, I am having a hard time remembering one happening when there's not a drought. It has dried out recently but not a prolonged thing going back months. Not saying it couldn't happen but being in a drought certainly would make it easier.

Thanks guys. Believe it or not this is not the first time I have a head injury from a car accident. Got a pretty big bump on the head when I was a little kid (t-boned), though that one was more of a superficial injury with no concussion. Just taking it a day at a time.