Hoosier

Scary stuff. Glad things turned out relatively ok.

Don't forget that we all used to be in the Central/Western subforum prior to the creation of the Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum. I don't think the admins would be too keen on adding additional subforums at this point. Besides, the issue of Ohio and other areas fighting over storms has largely been resolved since the creation of the separate regional threads. Of course the folks who are in these threads are welcome to participate in the main storm threads too. Almost all of us are adults here and there's no reason that people from Wisconsin can't have productive storm discussion with people from Ohio without feeling like somebody is trying to take the storm away from them (as if that's possible, lol)

NAM isn't really 15"... that is TT nonsense due to awful algorithm. That being said, curious to see how this plays out for you guys. Front end snow on an unfavorable track isn't unusual but a warning criteria snowfall is, though it can happen as has been mentioned earlier.

He is either extrapolating or has top secret access.

The sampling thing has some validity but it can be overblown. You're not going to suddenly see a storm go from hitting Wisconsin/Michigan to hitting Kentucky, but changes can and do occur (and they are really significant if you are near a gradient!).

To be fair, every setup is different, this one will have a sub 1000 mb low approaching from the sw with a strong LLJ trying to pump in warmth. Being that I don't live anywhere near Columbus and I really don't care how it turns out, my honest opinion is that there will be mixing issues there... maybe more than what the ECMWF suggests. Doesn't preclude the possibility of significant snow, but I'd be nervous. Good luck.

Hi-res version of the RGEM.

Deep Thunder

Go with your experience buckeye. Columbus taints at least excuse imaginable.

It's actually below freezing at the surface. ICON doesn't plot mixed precip for some reason.

Euro verbatim, that is possibly the most disruptive storm in Ohio since 1978. Only thing is it's a weekend.

I am interested in the 12/21-12/25 timeframe, but interest doesn't guarantee results. If something does happen, maybe we'll call it Jeblizzard.

Hopefully it's stronger than 1978.

I am becoming the same way. Funny how preferences can evolve. Doubt I'll ever lose the desire for cold and snow around the holidays. Growing up in this type of climate, you associate that with the holidays.

I wonder if buckeye still reads JB. Who am I kidding?

That looks like the old school TWC graphics. Who knew that they're still in use.

I doubt it. Of course it gets crazy hot there but the dews aren't high enough. My guess for highest heat index would be somewhere in the Midwest, which has the benefit of extra evapotranspiration from the crops.

Agree... go with the reliable info when you have it. I just meant that the data to pick from is a bit limited by not having public access to the intrahour obs from many years back.

Looks like that was intrahour. That's the thing... these wind chill records are almost always going to be hourly readings since I don't think it's possible to find intrahour observation archives from long ago.

I was in Lafayette, IN back then. Looks like the wind chill bottomed out at -40

1/6/2014 was quite an experience. Besides the extreme cold, the fact that the temperature dropped to those levels so soon after the snowstorm meant that the roads were a mess. Even the main roads had that layer of hardened snow that wouldn't come off.

The Kansas/Missouri records being colder is a little surprising, but there could be various reasons. Even could be some microclimate thing.

Congrats on the job. Sucks that another poster is moving out of the region though.

All that is is modeled precip amounts from the moment the temp drops to 32 or below, with no consideration for rates (heavier rates tend to have more runoff) or whether temps are more like 31-32 or in the 20s. They give an idea of where icing may occur but otherwise I would not take them literally.