Hoosier

Still have poor agreement on the 12z runs. I hope the 12z Euro looks like the 6z run.

Happy happy new year

Can't believe the 00z Euro came in even more jacked for the weekend.

18z NAM looks pretty bad. Maybe where we want it at this point though lol?

Significant change from 00z. It is in the better window in terms of skill scoring but would still like to see another run or two of this.

Sort of a questionable evolution with bouncing around between more of a coastal or inland low for a while, but we'll take it.

12z Euro coming in with a decent storm this weekend.

Check your barometer, cyclone

Lake Michigan causing rain 75 miles inland in January would be something I don't remember seeing before.

I refuse to believe there would be marine influence to that extent in January. I mean come on.

That is a bad look for the east. Might be ok for the Midwest, at least parts of it.

That's the control, right?

This is some large coverage of N. Usually above or below will dominate.

Yeah, it's a risky pattern for the heart of the sub. Could pay off but I'd be very guarded. Not a chronic torch at least.

I think it depends on whose temps you are talking about. What happens globally may not be reflected regionally or locally. We can still get colder than average winters in the Midwest no matter what is going on elsewhere. But for the sake of argument, let's say Detroit starts seeing a significant warming trend in winter temps. Snowfall is fickle but that would probably start to eat into the snowfall average eventually. Josh or someone can check it out but if you look at Detroit's snowiest 10 or 20 winters, I bet you aren't going to find that many warmer than average ones in there... especially more than 1F above avg. And the warmer than average winters probably lean toward mediocrity or worse for total snowfall. Of course the farther north you are, the more you can get away with warming.

Pretty crappy overall though as it kind of gets sheared out.

Fantasy range storm is going to be farther north on the 12z Euro.

At least we'll be dead by then.

Yes, it can and has happened. Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago. More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

Shouldn't be hard to get more snow than December. Shouldn't be.

I'm focused on my inch man.

Too early for Ron Paul?

Yeah, Isotherm is off to a decent start. December is going to end up being colder than what he had in the upper Midwest and Northeast but the general warmer than average almost everywhere idea was pretty good. His December and DJF temp and snow maps are below.