Hoosier

Don S winter thoughts. Don't read if you like snowy winters

Thanks for your thoughts, Don. Chicago had its 2nd snowiest start to the season when looking at snow amounts through November 15. I ran the numbers on the 10 snowiest starts for Chicago (through Nov 15) and guess what, 5 years finished snowier than average and 5 had less snow than average. Given where ORD is at right now, it will likely be hard to hold them down in the low end of that range but certainly a mediocre season is not only conceivable, but well within the realm of possibility.

Warm holidays are the worst. Thankfully the Euro weeklies are pretty hit or miss that far out.

See my above post. Wow. Lol

Just waiting for the first "see, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter."

If you're in northern IL you look at this and think hey, maybe a decent snow on the way. Nope

Agree. Not warm in the means but looks like a table scraps pattern for much of the central/southern sub for a while. Not so unusual I guess for late November/early December.

Sad to watch the moisture coming out of Texas go poof

The revenge of Minneapolis.

I think it's always a concern in a progression like this that the snow threats will sort of skip over. Locally I am not expecting much for the next week or two (would love to be wrong about that). 2 snows have my seasonal total at 3.5"... above average to date but it feels a little underwhelming compared to what other areas in the region have received. I have to keep reminding myself that we aren't even into December yet.

Probably want less longitudinal distance between the Canadian low and the system emerging into the Plains if you want a farther south track. Compare where these features were on yesterday's 12z GFS and now.

Where'd everybody go?

The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right.

Handling of the features for early to midweek has changed on recent runs. There is more emphasis on a northern stream wave in the northern US/Canada which then allows for the subsequent energy to be somewhat suppressed, at least compared to previous runs which had it going through IA/WI. Here is Tuesday's Euro vs the Euro from today for comparison. It is an energetic pattern so it's hard to have much confidence in the details yet.

As far as the system this weekend, much of the uncertainty lies with the northern stream piece of energy and the timing of it and how it interacts with the closed low ejecting eastward. Assuming there is indeed an organized band of snow that materializes, thermal profiles look a bit cruddy. Cold enough to snow but should be of the wetter variety, especially during the daylight hours.

Haven't seen the >400 hr CFS in a while. Nice change of pace.

Call me crazy but I'm still thinking the weekend system has a shot to do something around here.

12z Euro actually did miss Chicago to the southeast with that, but not by much.

Gonna be tough to get significant snow this far east I think. Don't really see how we can finagle it to happen. Maybe if there is some follow up piece of energy. As currently modeled, it is reminiscent of some of the classic fall storms of years past. Similarly deep and similar track.

12z Euro and GFS both going big time with the low next week.

Indeed. Not the greatest inter/intra model consistency. Still has my eye though in case of a late northward adjustment.

This would be kind of a big deal in almost any other November. Now it's like so what lol

00z GFS with a hard shift toward the Euro for the weekend system. And this just in from the GEM

12z Euro is still on the more bullish end with the weekend system.

Yeah, that system next weekend could do a little something. We'll see. Does seem like the Thanksgiving storm is poised to be the bigger ticket item one way or another (rain/snow/wind).