Hoosier

And there was the recent OV storm. The thing about Nino/Ninoish Decembers is that the snow works out sometimes but it's harder to pull off a cold and snow combination in December... there are exceptions of course.

Wasn't that long ago that storminess was showing up around/after Christmas. Perhaps we are in the lose the storm(s) phase of the modeling. Action either way would be nice.

True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4"

The problem with a winter like 2014-15 and even 1998-99 is that if you take away the huge storm from each, you are left with a fairly mediocre winter overall. Sure, I would sign up for a repeat if it meant getting the huge storm, but there are no guarantees that happens even if the progression is similar.

Happy days are here again

This upcoming stretch looks pretty annoying tbh. Mild/warm but not particularly warm/record breaking and lack of storminess. Looking at record highs for Chicago for the stretch leading up to and just beyond Christmas, the record highs generally look safe. There are a couple somewhat vulnerable days in there with lower record highs but not sure the timing of the warmest days will be right.

It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case.

You are probably going to want to be north for what happens around the 25th-26th. Hopefully it gets better for more of the region after that.

There is a good storm signal about a week and a half from now. Could be pretty big for somebody. Whether it happens in time for Christmas is questionable.

This is it Chicago. You can feel it right? I am lit right now btw. Not a usual occurrence. I rarely drink.

*clears throat* So after this upcoming storm, almost no location north of I-70 (and maybe even a little south of there) will have less snow than me.

Can we time a warm-up any worse? Hopefully we lay down a nice snow field in the coming days to maybe slow down/mitigate to some extent.

Didn't you call it garbage like a week ago?

The low end scenario for this seems like a modest event in the OV, while the higher end scenario is a stronger storm a bit farther north.

00z GFS is coming in hot.

Almost all of the 18z GEFS members have a decent storm and a majority of them are on the northern side, which is kind of interesting because as RC mentioned, the GEFS isn't running with the upgrade of the op GFS.

GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south.

That's true... they have trended colder. Doesn't negate the concern though. And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough.

Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday. Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?

At least some improvement on the 00z Euro.

Yeah it would've been interesting to do composite snowfall maps for each of those months, but not sure how to do that. Despite the December temp composite running on the warm side (around/over 1F warmer than 1981-2010 averages in much of the Midwest for a 20 year composite is actually kinda noteworthy), I suspect a December snow composite over the same period would be closer to if not a bit snowier than average in some areas as there has been a wildly snowy December or two... 2000 immediately comes to mind.

Most of the central-southern sub is going to have more snow in the October 16-November 15 period than in the November 16-December 15 period. With any luck, things will turn right after December 15.

Fine with me at this point. Some of the northern solutions that have been flashed off and on have been a little uncomfortably north.

December has sort of developed a reputation for sucking, or at least not being as good as other winter months. Is there any truth to that? Well, here are composite temperature maps of the last 20 Decembers, Januaries and Februaries. 1999-2018 was used for December since December 2019 is obviously ongoing.