Hoosier

The last system was relatively easy to make a general long range call on. This one is a more convoluted setup with marginal boundary layer conditions. I do think a band of sig snow is possible somewhere. As for here, it appears that rain, snow, and possibly even a little ice could all occur during the period.

Hey hey Band creeping up the IL shore toward the end so the Chi guys may want to keep an eye out

Indeed Do you have any thoughts on this one? The parameters look ok, and there is a decent amount of omega in the DGZ. Looks like it may tend to hug the shore with time. May be going out on a limb but would not be shocked at a localized 3-6" within a few miles of the shore somewhere in Lake/Porter.

Don't do it Hoosier. Don't start to believe you will get enough snow to cover the grass

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

Yeah, I need northerly flow or at least some minor variation of that to have a shot. So not a common occurrence but not very rare either. Just haven't had a setup where that wind direction and good parameters and long enough residence time have come together.

About 2" It is pretty incredible. I mean, I'm near I-80 and close to Lake Michigan, not in the south. Even if synoptic isn't going favorably, there is a backup option in the form of a decent lake effect band making it here, but nope.

That looks a lot like it does here. Well, I have a little more snow. Still waiting on a 3" snowfall. I don't really keep records and trying to remember your first 3" snowfall each winter is sort of an odd thing, but this has to be among the longest it has taken. And there really isn't one in sight. Some models are trying to tease the lake effect band this far west on Monday, but even if it does make it this far west, I'm not expecting much. Yesterday's storm was made worse by the fact that a number of models (granted not unanimous) were suggesting 3-5" here, which of course didn't pan out.

That was 01-02 when he had that infamous line I think.

Best climo

Cold air? How dare winter pull a stunt like that.

Using the 16 day op GFS as a counterargument Come on, man

Fantastic post OHweather. Thanks.

Hey, not gonna make the list. ORD is up to 4.8" since November 15.

Where'd this go?

I was thinking over.

Wow, lol

I browse these threads sometimes and have seen Tip mention the 588 over Miami thing or something like that as having a deleterious effect on shortwaves. Tip, would it make something as amped up as this rolling through the Plains-Lakes less likely to verify or am I misunderstanding?

Looking at Thu-Fri to really start refining the details. With any luck the rug won't get pulled out (if not imby then overall) before then.

I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come.

Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something. The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that.

Usual caveat about the GEFS not being upgraded but virtually all of them have something.

A second ice storm in the same area out around day 10.

Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing.