Hoosier

Might be a record early start for the med/long range thread.

This thread is for systems showing up in the medium-long range. Have already been talking about it a bit in the seasonal thread, but the extended looks to have some unusually cold air to tap into with even some model/ensemble suggestion of a wintry system or two. Nothing set in stone of course.

Models are muddled on the details of course but I really think something anomalous could happen in the final week of the month. The amount of cold air that is available to be tapped into looks quite impressive for this time of year. It's possible that nothing really happens and it ends up being a dry chill but the foundation is there.

System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution. Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winterish look at times in the extended.

Maybe it's just me but the pattern has the feel of something that could produce an unseasonably far south October snowfall. There looks to be some decent cold (by Oct standards) to play with at times.

Some of the latest info does suggest a possible weak Nino for winter. May fall a bit short. It could end up being a case of Ninoish but not meeting the technical criteria of 5 consecutive trimonthly readings.

Gotta admit, an open voting system would be better than a cabal being "outraged" for an audience of one.

If there were a vote on whether you or Akeem stays, I'm not sure you'd win. Just calling it like I see it. No hard feelings.

You would've definitely dropped a "what a way to spend a Saturday night"

Somebody finally got too fed up with twitter embed not working.

Have been going back and forth in my mind about whether we may get an early onset/frontloaded winter or more of a backloaded one. A little early to tell but we are at least seeing some early cold punches.

Hoping for a big snowstorm here. Last winter didn't deliver in that regard. The most memorable snow for me was actually the mid April storm, which didn't produce a huge amount of snow imby but had some intense blizzard like conditions.

Here's the latest DJF outlook from CPC. I think most winter lovers in the Midwest would roll the dice with this, especially considering the well-known reluctance to depict blue on seasonal outlooks at this distance.

This thread is for the seasonal outlooks and general discussion. Looks like ENSO may tend to be around neutral on the warm or cool side. Certainly not seeing any indication of a well defined warm or cold event. Going out on a limb but I predict there will be cold and snow.

As someone who is familiar with the staff there (all of them are on the staff here too), I can say that they are good people generally speaking. Most of them are indeed Democrats/left leaning, but there is no conscious effort to treat right leaning posters any differently. Trust me. Your experience should not dissuade any right leaning people from signing up there (if the sign up actually works now lol). As far as threatening to ban you for being a sock, that is something that has been peddled by an individual with no investigative capabilities into the matter. What else can be said?

People like making fun of your weight too much to ban you. Hopefully Luc1f3r got the link.

Footage of Dorian's approach and landfall in NC

Leave it to you to nitpick over corner vs corners.

Some of the Trump posts have been removed. It is one thing to talk about his statements regarding Dorian but this board is not the place for broader political discussions. It is mind boggling and embarrassing that anybody at this board or any wx enthusiast in general would try to explain away the cone comment. People are too quick to reflexively fall back into their corners.

It is just part of a pattern with Trump. He is an oversensitive baby who has an extraordinarily hard time handling criticism. We have known for a long time that Alabama was out of the game. Just get your info right to begin with and then the NWS wouldn't have had to come out and correct you, etc.

So do you think Dorian will have an official landfall in the southeast US? Remember that landfall is defined as the center of the eye encountering land.

This would be a good time for Heidi the Horrible to swoop in and remind everyone not to underestimate the will to survive.

dfuzz too