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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Hoosier
    00z GFS is coming in hot.
  2. Hoosier
    Almost all of the 18z GEFS members have a decent storm and a majority of them are on the northern side, which is kind of interesting because as RC mentioned, the GEFS isn't running with the upgrade of the op GFS.
  3. Hoosier
    GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south.
  4. Hoosier
    That's true... they have trended colder. Doesn't negate the concern though. And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough.
  5. Hoosier
    Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday. Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?
  6. Hoosier
    At least some improvement on the 00z Euro.
  7. Hoosier
    Yeah it would've been interesting to do composite snowfall maps for each of those months, but not sure how to do that. Despite the December temp composite running on the warm side (around/over 1F warmer than 1981-2010 averages in much of the Midwest for a 20 year composite is actually kinda noteworthy), I suspect a December snow composite over the same period would be closer to if not a bit snowier than average in some areas as there has been a wildly snowy December or two... 2000 immediately comes to mind.
  8. Hoosier
    Most of the central-southern sub is going to have more snow in the October 16-November 15 period than in the November 16-December 15 period. With any luck, things will turn right after December 15.
  9. Hoosier
    Fine with me at this point. Some of the northern solutions that have been flashed off and on have been a little uncomfortably north.
  10. Hoosier
    December has sort of developed a reputation for sucking, or at least not being as good as other winter months. Is there any truth to that? Well, here are composite temperature maps of the last 20 Decembers, Januaries and Februaries. 1999-2018 was used for December since December 2019 is obviously ongoing.
  11. Hoosier
    Don't know why somebody doesn't fix those maps. Practically all that stuff down south is sleet/freezing rain.
  12. Hoosier
    Widespread pre Xmas winter storm on the GFS. First things first though.
  13. Hoosier
    I am on board with that threat, which makes it like legally bound to happen. In all seriousness, at least it looks like we are entering a pattern with more chances to snow.
  14. Hoosier
    A rather exciting 00z Euro run tonight. Too bad it's so far out.
  15. Hoosier
    Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track. Models have been flip flopping on track though.
  16. Hoosier
    Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.
  17. Hoosier
    Had a feeling you might say something like that, but wasn't sure. There are definitely people who are in the camp of "if it's not going to snow it might as well torch"
  18. Hoosier
    A. Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction B. Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.
  19. Hoosier
    Serious question for a die hard winter guy like yourself. Which would you rather have, the type of regime we've been in lately or something really torchy like a run of 10-15+ above average? Have to pick one.
  20. Hoosier
    Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch. I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?
  21. Hoosier
    Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th. 00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.
  22. Hoosier
    I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.
  23. Hoosier
    Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north. The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.
  24. Hoosier
    Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week. Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution.
  25. Hoosier
    I mean, it has been warmer than average recently, but this is kind of cheap for Indian summer . Departures like this are pretty useless at this time of year -- still cool
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