Hoosier

There has been a noticeable trend toward secondary low development late weekend/early next week across the guidance. Unfortunately cold air doesn't get in very quickly as currently modeled.

If you're farther southeast, the only hope for this upcoming storm is if some additional energy can come around and sort of force the surface low to redevelop farther south/east. There are suggestions of it on some models so I guess we'll see.

Figures. Remember my comment about the GFS tending to overamp but probably nailing this one.

At least the near shore temps should come up a bit. Probably not major though. I think there would have to be a real junk airmass to still be causing issues near the lake in January.

Yeah that was quite a shift. Just when you think you know the models. And the end of the 00z Euro has a major bomb in the making. Would've been nice to see that go out another 12-24 hours lol

One of these is gonna be way off

LC actually seems like one of the better long range guys over the years. At least he doesn't try to spin toward cold/snow on a regular basis, so this is more encouraging than somebody like JB saying it.

Agreed... the seasonal futility records are already out of play in some areas, such as IND.

12z Euro is a good case of a model almost going out of its way to drum up among the most boring outcomes possible.

Seriously though, cold air does look iffy no matter where it goes. Maybe there will be just enough for a band of snow.

ICON flips to snow too. Guys, I'm optimistic again.

Delayed timing compared to GFS but of course we get a cutter on the 12z Euro.

I don't know if it's seeing all this bare ground or what but the month seems milder than it has been to date. Will be accelerating the positive departures for sure.

Don't mind me. Been a tough month locally. Optimism hasn't worked so...

GFS has had an issue with overamping some storms in the long range but watch it nail this one

Good point. No guarantees on how individual storms work out, but if it does end up near/colder than average and wetter than average, you'd take your chances with that combination.

I'll take action of any kind at this point. Been unbelievably boring locally.

Wasn't that long ago that storminess was showing up around/after Christmas. Perhaps we are in the lose the storm(s) phase of the modeling. Action either way would be nice.

True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4"

The problem with a winter like 2014-15 and even 1998-99 is that if you take away the huge storm from each, you are left with a fairly mediocre winter overall. Sure, I would sign up for a repeat if it meant getting the huge storm, but there are no guarantees that happens even if the progression is similar.

This upcoming stretch looks pretty annoying tbh. Mild/warm but not particularly warm/record breaking and lack of storminess. Looking at record highs for Chicago for the stretch leading up to and just beyond Christmas, the record highs generally look safe. There are a couple somewhat vulnerable days in there with lower record highs but not sure the timing of the warmest days will be right.

It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case.

You are probably going to want to be north for what happens around the 25th-26th. Hopefully it gets better for more of the region after that.

There is a good storm signal about a week and a half from now. Could be pretty big for somebody. Whether it happens in time for Christmas is questionable.