Hoosier

IIRC, I think he has said that he has bad allergies.

I guess it depends how you grade. I think the elite forecasters do hit the general character of the winter more often than not. If somebody goes warmer than average, say +1 to +3 for DJF and it ends up +4, I count that as a success because of the long lead time involved.

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year. The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

Even more bizarre is that the only measurable snow for Paducah and Evansville so far in 2019-20 came outside of meteorological winter in November. That November snow (1.2" for Paducah and 1.1" for Evansville) will prevent it from being the least snowy first to last flake season. Paducah has actually had a few years when only a trace fell in the entire snow season.

It is actually kind of impressive that the final total should even end up within shouting distance of average given how mild of a winter it has been and the lack of any big individual snow. No doubt helped out by the early snows as pointed out.

Guess the outbreak Time's up. March 28, 1920. That means it will be 100 years. The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence. This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak. Geographic area affected is remarkably similar. 7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

Our usual thread for small/non thread worthy severe and also for longer range severe discussion. Nothing imminent but there are some signs in the long range that the large scale pattern may become more favorable toward mid March. Could end up not leading to anything but remember I am the guy who started the winter thread a couple weeks before the halloween storm. In the meantime, since nothing is going on, feel free to post thoughts on the upcoming season or talk about past events, etc.

Euro Shmuro. Big flip flop from 00z. Setup is a bit unclear but it should snow somewhere one way or another.

So who's got the thread for next week?

Accuweather or the forecast?

Is this bad?

Let's do it

Trending toward the more northerly solution that the Euro has been showing.

"Ride the euro"

And yet, my prediction is that February will come out at/above average for snow at ORD. It's a problem from a sustained deep winter point of view but it looks cold/active enough to not be a total wipeout.

Usual caveat about models out around day 10 but that looks to have potential. Nice return flow and the western troughing is in no hurry to move east.

Snowfall departures and percent of average so far

2/29 will have the craziest weather in at least the past 4 years.

We should be in the game in this type of regime. Just hoping it's a snowier outcome locally than last February which was very ordinary in that regard.

I was looking at records for Columbus and it looks like the record for fewest number of days with measurable snow is 5. That is pretty unbelievable. It appears to be very anomalous though as the next fewest is quite a bit higher than that.

Nope. As I've mentioned before, still waiting on a 3" snow.

I'd agree with that. Better chances should be n/w of the Ohio Valley for a while. Wondering if there will finally be a big enough snow here in February to cover the grass tips for the first time this winter. Think it has to happen at some point as the pattern looks less torchy overall and not devoid of action.

I would dispute the active part a little bit. I guess it depends on how you define the word and where you are. There were those couple unusually early storms in Oct/Nov. Then there were a couple significant storms in different parts of the sub in December, but I wouldn't really call that "active" overall. You expect some storminess... this isn't the desert. Recall that December was quite bad and boring in those areas that missed out on the bigger storms that month (ORD could hardly buy a drop of any kind of precip in the first 4 weeks). January has been better in terms of storm frequency and hopefully we build on it and get some bigger storms.

Would be a pretty epic blizzard especially out in the Plains. Like a 65 mb pressure gradient at one point.

Poor Boston