Hoosier

Or get really cold and warm up just in time for rain, rinse and repeat.

I just use it as a name for a big ridge. I know some people use it for other things like when there's a big low in the Gulf of Alaska.

A strong southeast ridge would favor a cutter of some kind, but cutters come in all kinds of strengths. You can get a big neg tilt trough with a very deep surface low or a strung out positively tilted trough with a 1005 mb low. The stronger the southeast ridge, the more height gradient which increases the flow aloft which tends to have a deleterious effect on getting amped up storms. There are probably exceptions but the way he said it makes sense. We have been dealing with a pig ridge down there numerous times this winter and have not seen very many strong/neg tilt systems... coincidence?

This one may at least have a chance to not be a strung out/pos tilt mess as we have seen so often. Typhoon Tip over in the SNE forum makes good points when you can actually understand what he's typing, and one of the things we don't have in this setup is a massively strong southeast ridge which tends to shear/grind up emerging s/w when heights get too high (according to him).

00z Euro really blew that storm up. Hopefully 12z has something.

That was very informative, OHweather. Thanks.

Groundhog day, which means it has to be farther west.

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

That was 01-02 when he had that infamous line I think.

Using the 16 day op GFS as a counterargument Come on, man

Fantastic post OHweather. Thanks.

Wow, lol

Looking at Thu-Fri to really start refining the details. With any luck the rug won't get pulled out (if not imby then overall) before then.

I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come.

Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something. The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that.

Usual caveat about the GEFS not being upgraded but virtually all of them have something.

A second ice storm in the same area out around day 10.

Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing.

I drink maybe a handful of times a year and don't even keep the stuff around. Try to be careful with what I do as I had an aunt who basically drank herself to death. I didn't take personal offense to Alek's comment but it can be a sensitive subject. On a weather related note, the ICON looks pretty crappy for the storm. Let's see what the GFS does.

Only about 5 more days to run out the clock on model runs lol This may not work out in the end but at least for now, it is set up in an okay way. The northern stream sort of scoots by harmlessly without acting to shunt the emerging southern stream wave really far south. One possibility is that the northern stream is more aggressive and acts as more of a suppressing agent but we aren't really seeing that on the latest runs.

While it hasn't been as torchy as late December (not a hard thing to accomplish since it was so far above average then), 2020 is off to a pretty mild start. Generally speaking, the mins have been farther above average than the maxes in the region, though there are some pretty significant positive departures with the maxes as well. Also, thought I would bump this map that I posted a while back. Pretty clear that the timeframe on this map is going to end up warmer than average in a lot of the N area, and substantially so. Not to bust on CPC, but I wonder why the warm signal was missed?

The downside to basically leaving the southern stream wave to its own devices is a fairly narrow area of wintry precip. We've had a tough time getting proper phases though so I'm almost ready to try anything

Good post RC. Should be cold enough on the northwest fringe for snow/ice, so the bigger concern is how that southern wave tracks. Would be a kick in the pants to get missed to the south right after the other storm passes too far north.

Well, the high is indeed retreating eastward, but modeled surface winds are still easterly at that time, and it's overnight/early morning timing. Perhaps a plausible situation, but good luck getting anything to lock in at this distance haha.

Lol at the system on the GFS around day 10.