Hoosier

This is an informative read. Some good and bad news on reinfections and vaccines with covid. The takeaway is that we are probably going to be battling this virus for a long time even after the vaccines come out. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

There is a collection of states in the West and the Plains that is on the rise. It's not every state in that area of the country though, which could be because if your state has already been hit very hard, you probably have more restrictions in place with more of the population taking it seriously. I remember reading that exposure to smoke from the wildfires could make a person more susceptible to the virus. I assume that meant a higher likelihood of having a more serious case and not a higher likelihood of contracting the virus itself, but I'm not sure. Those states have had a higher frequency of smoke making it to ground level. Another possibility could be the reopening of K-12 and colleges. It is easier to pick out the spikes in smaller population states since the numbers are not high in an absolute sense. A state that goes from 100 cases one day to 200 cases another day is more noticeable than a state that goes from 1200 to 1300.

Here are test numbers, cases and hospitalizations for Indiana courtesy of covid tracking. Other than a recent spike, which I believe was due to a backlog, daily testing numbers have been either side of 10,000. Case numbers have been up and down but sort of hanging in a zone. Hospitalizations have trended down and are at a similar level as mid July. I guess I'd like to know the logic that went into deciding to move to a full reopening. If the bars/restaurants couldn't be fully open in July, then why now? Testing, cases, and hospitalizations are pretty much the same now as they were in most of July.

Indiana is "fully" reopening this weekend. I put that in quotes because I am not sure yet of the scope and if it also means no limits on size of gatherings. I heard there may still be some kind of limit on gathering size. Apparently bars/restaurants/clubs will be able to operate at full capacity as long as social distancing is maintained. This raises an obvious question of how distancing can be maintained if a place is at full capacity. I don't want to get too far into politics, but I really hope this is a science based decision and that there are not outside factors at play. Our governor is up for reelection and a poll that came out about 2 weeks ago showed the libertarian candidate pulling a large number of votes away to the point where the governor's lead is barely outside the margin of error. I assume it is due to people being upset about the restrictions/mask orders that have been in place. So far the governor has resisted the calls to end the mask order. Having the bars/restaurants at 50-75% has been working decently well, and having those go to 100% will likely result in increased cases over time.

I'm sure there is a lot that goes into the model, and it's probably trying to account for cold season influence. I'm wondering if it is so detailed as to factor in more schools eventually reopening for in person learning. I have not been able to find an answer as to how many kids are doing all virtual learning right now but it must be a fairly large number because a number of the larger districts in the country are not having any in person learning yet.

Things would have to spiral pretty bad to get to 400k that fast.

A few weeks ago I mentioned that daily deaths were dropping. You could see it coming when digging into the data. That is the good news. The bad news is that we are still averaging 750+ per day, and right now I am skeptical that the number is going to be able to drop a lot more anytime soon. We better hope our baseline is low going into the holidays, because that is a looming trouble spot for various reasons.

My county passed 10,000 cases the other day. The question is what has the undercount been? Obviously we are not missing as many cases as we were back in March, but we are still missing cases with the amount of asymptomatic carriers and some people with milder symptoms who may not bother getting tested/are attributing it to something else. If the actual number of cases is 10x higher, then it would mean that 20% of my county has had it.

Here is Wisconsin. Cases are up but hospitalizations have also started to increase. Not hugely on the latter but still.

Wisconsin appears to be rising. It looks like a real increase in spread too, not just more testing.

Death toll hit 200,000 on worldometers today. To think nobody knew what the hell covid was a year ago.

Already over 1200 cases at Indiana University Bloomington.

Cardio work is more fun outside of the gym anyway. At least in my opinion.

Spike in the next couple days may look worse than usual since we are coming off of a holiday weekend. On the plus side, at least Jonger can work on those guns.

Was there a case dump or something in Illinois? 5500 newly reported...

Somebody measured a 25 mb pressure drop in 7 minutes in the derecho. You don't even get that drop rate in the eyewall of most (if not all) hurricanes.

Actually, pushed to September 21 https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/deal-or-no-deal-threat-of-1st-nyc-teachers-strike-in-45-years-looms-over-school-safety/2595536/?amp

New York City is delaying in person school. With how they have contained the virus around there, if they can't go back, that's a real problem.

The average has dipped a little under 1000 per day over the past week, but it is a painfully slow drop.

Know another person who has it. One of my mother's friends. She is around 70 and the ironic thing is that she's a teacher who recently retired 1 year early due to concern about contracting the virus at school. She likely got it while helping her friends move. Nobody was wearing a mask and one of those people tested positive several days before she did. Last I heard she lost her sense of smell and has a cough. Hopefully it stays at that.

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now. That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator. If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower. The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.

Do we have herd immunity for the common cold? Asking for a friend.

Yeah, the immune system has some problems with this group of viruses as time goes by. I think it's going to depend on what "success" is considered to be. The vaccine being a magic bullet where you get it once and never have to get it again seems extremely unlikely.

You can make an argument for the initial shutdowns being more tailored than they were, but hindsight is 20/20. It was a new virus and we were flying blind.