Hoosier

Flashbacks to the Nov 2015 storm.

https://scitechdaily.com/common-coronavirus-mutation-may-actually-make-covid-19-more-susceptible-to-a-vaccine/

I called out the election celebrations as they were happening last Saturday. They were not productive, and people could've chosen to celebrate at home. Yes, it was nice that most people appeared to be wearing masks, but there were still large crowds of people that were more or less staying in the same spot (not marching). That being said, it is simply playing political games to blame the current increase on those celebrations. The incubation period of the virus is 2 days at minimum, and many times it's more like 4 or 5 days if not longer. By the time someone gets tested and gets the result, you are frequently talking 10-14 days after exposure (maybe even longer). We will continue to see increasing cases, and likely some stemming from the celebrations, but as has been mentioned, we are in continued exponential growth anyhow.

Basically back to April level death numbers. Statistically you have a better chance of making it out of the hospital now compared to back then, but we have record hospitalization numbers countering that.

That is the one day case record for any state in the United States, narrowly beating out Florida from this past summer.

Was looking through the IHME stuff in more detail. It projects US hospitalizations peaking at just under 130k, which is about twice where we currently are. Current hospitalizations are actually running ahead of progged though (67k vs 60k). Again though, it is factoring in decreased mobility over time. Basically, we are really screwed if we don't start taking more steps to blunt the curve.

Thanks Alek.

The IHME model updated, and has almost 440k deaths by March 1. Notably, that factors in a big drop in mobility starting very soon, which may not actually occur or could at least be interrupted by holiday travel, etc., which suggests a worse outcome is plausible.

Given the rate of growth, we may be up near 200k late next week. I do wonder if the test turnaround time will start to suffer because of this onslaught. Perhaps it already is in some areas?

Fixed your post

fyp

Could've waited for the new IHME update, which could be any time now. It's like not waiting for the Euro.

There are areas of the state that actually have worse spread than them on a per capita basis. But I guess you have to be a little more careful in more populated areas since the potential ceiling on growth is so high. Here are the changes for Indianapolis. Besides this, schools are also going virtual. The following changes go into effect Monday, Nov. 16: Indoor capacity will be reduced to 25 percent for bars and entertainment venues, although outdoor capacity will continue to be allowed up to 100 percent. Restaurant capacity will remain at 50 percent indoors with outdoor capacity at 100 percent. Self-service buffets and salad bars are banned. Karaoke is banned. Maximum party size at tables, restaurants and bars is reduced to six people. The midnight closure requirement that previously applied to bars, restaurants and clubs will now be extended to all non-essential hospitality and entertainment businesses, including live entertainment venues. Special or seasonal events, such as fairs, concerts, movie screenings, weddings, sporting events, are now limited to 25 percent of the venue's capacity. They may include more than 50 people only if the event has an approved safety plan from the Marion County Public Health Department. This is a reduction from the current 250 person limit. Religious centers are limited to 75 percent capacity. Cultural venues, music venues, museums, tourism sites and other non-essential tourism venues are reduced to 25 percent capacity. Gyms and fitness centers, as well as private clubs and fraternal organizations, are reduced to 25 percent indoor capacity. Marion County will now require a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours for a visit to any long-term care facility. https://www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/health/indiana-coronavirus-updates-for-thursday-november-12-2020/531-c778ffae-5ee5-483c-88c2-5d4562225cbe

Makes you wonder if an outdoor gathering in fall has higher risk than the same outdoor gathering in summer, simply due to less UV. Obviously much better than having one indoors though.

Though far from the norm, stories like this are scary. 38 year old guy died at home 3 days after being diagnosed. Iowa teacher dies 3 days after testing positive for COVID-19 BELMOND, Iowa — The Belmond-Klemme Community School District is mourning the loss of a beloved teacher. Jason Englert's family said he tested positive for coronavirus three days before he died. The 38-year-old teacher was found dead inside his home on Nov. 8. https://www.kcci.com/amp/article/iowa-teacher-dies-3-days-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19/34648767

I crunched the hospitalization numbers, and there has been a >25% increase in Indiana in just the past 5 days. Similar story in Illinois.

So Illinois issued a stay at home "recommendation." Is there any reason to think it won't fall on deaf ears? IDPH Issues New Guidance Urging Residents to Stay Home and Leave Only for ‘Essential Activities' The guidelines, which come just before the the Thanksgiving holiday, recommend that for the next three weeks, residents "stay home as much as possible, leaving only for necessary and essential activities" https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/idph-issues-new-guidance-urging-residents-to-stay-home-and-leave-only-for-essential-activities/2367781/

Nobody wants to be the one to announce that right before Thanksgiving. My guess as to how it goes down is that we wait to see the impact of Thanksgiving, things continue to get worse, some places come out with some sort of modified lockdown/stay at home in December, and a lot of people don't follow it anyway.

Holcomb announced new limits on crowd sizes for most of Indiana. Local officials will have the say on what to do with places like bars and restaurants. This is a relatively minor move in the grand scheme of things, so I'm skeptical about it helping to any great degree, but we'll see. https://fox59.com/news/gov-holcomb-state-officials-to-deliver-weekly-coronavirus-briefing/

It is arguable how much benefit there will be from 1 week of warm weather. I'm honestly not counting on anything but it would be nice.

Probably only a matter of time until they have to pull back on electives, but you can only put on so many band aids. Really need to slow down the growth somehow.

CORONAVIRUS SURGE SENDS MANY HOOSIER HOSPITALS 'OVER 100 PERCENT OCCUPANCY' “Many hospitals are reporting staff shortages as the pandemic takes its toll. Hoosier nurses, doctors and other front-line hospital staff have been working non-stop since the early spring,” Tabor said in a statement Tuesday. In recent weeks, new cases have reached the highest level to date, and hospitalizations have increased by 143% since Oct. 1, according to Tabor. Dr. Christopher Mansfield, Chief of Adult In-Patient Medicine at IU-Health’s West Region, said hospitals in Lafayette, Frankfort and Monticello were “over 100 percent.” “When I mean 100 percent occupancy, that literally means we are occupying every adult bed in our facility,” said Mansfield. “We are populating areas now, like our ambulance bay, which we've transitioned into an in-patient holding area while they're waiting to get a physical bed in the upstairs part of IU Arnett Hospital.” Mansfield said administrators were talking Tuesday about whether to scale back elective procedures to allow for more room and more staff to help. “We can't take too much more from a surge standpoint. Otherwise, we (may) not have physical space, so we're trying to utilize what we've got in the smartest way most efficiently,” he said. https://www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/local/coronavirus-surge-sends-many-hoosier-hospitals-over-100-percent-occupancy/531-6e5b11f3-07af-4356-8395-d1be34a3ee9a

You are giving ammo to the anti-maskers But maybe it helped you and your coworkers take in a lower viral dose vs not wearing one. Glad you are on the mend.

I think we are in pretty deep trouble with almost a perfect storm of factors coming together. Rapid growth now and a series of upcoming holidays when people will be tempted to gather, even if it's in smaller numbers than usual.