southbuffalowx

I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much

Ice cover as of this afternoon...

So I was able to find the raw data of ice concentration on Lake Erie before and during the January '14 event, which seems to be a good analogue to this one. 3 55.69 4 57.95 5 39.72 6 41.83 7 61.55 8 88.48 9 90.63 The lake managed to ice up very quickly, going from 40%- 90% coverage in just 2 days, despite the strong winds inhibiting ice formation. The weather service wrote they expect the wave action to break ice formation enough to keep lake effect going for the duration, but I would not be surprised if they are underestimating the lakes ability to ice over. However, their forecast snow totals are in line with the '14 event, which seems reasonable, but as hopeful as I am, I doubt areas receive more than 2'.

I'm not sure about satellite pictures, but the site I like to use to visualize lake ice was down for the last month because of the shutdown. The site is back on now, but the data is still a month old. It should come back on soon hopefully, because lake ice is my biggest worry at the moment. https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/

Updated the post, so the links should be working now

All 3 HRW models are crush jobs for Buffalo. 2-3' by just Wednesday morning. Wrf-arw Nmm Wrf-nssl

And the best part is the regular name shows the next 24 hours after that as being even better! I'm sure the weather service will put up watches tonight as the mesoscale models come more into play

Wow, the 3k name shows 2' of snow in a narrow strip just southeast of Buffalo by Wednesday morning. If that's anything to go by (I mean, it is the Name), this next storm definitely has big potential.

Not to mention the blizzard of 85, which was just as cold, if not colder, and it dumped 3-4'!

We saw how their hesitancy and the models played out with the storm Thursday and Friday, so the potential is definitely there. Even the mesoscale models aren't very precise when it comes to LE, but I'm hoping we get one last hurrah!

Surprised there is no WWA for southern Erie and Wyoming county. It's gotta be pretty nasty in that band

I was just checking the top 10 snowiest months of January, and they are only like 2.5" away from making that list this month! There is definitely even a good shot at 50", depending how next week's lake effect storm pans out

There was a storm in 2024-2015 winter that dropped like a foot or so across the northtowns I remember. Transitioned right through central Erie and the immediate southtowns so we got like 4-6" Edit: This was the storm I was talking about, 15" in Kenmore, that's definitely pretty good for a northtowns event. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2014-2015&event=G

13.5" storm total here. 2.5" last night, 11" this evening.

I cleared off my board at 8:00 before heading out. Had 3.25" + 2.5" from last night. From the looks of the radar there has to be at least another 8"!

Looks like the feeder band might be trying to turn into the main band, right over top us! Hopefully it widens out a bit because close to the lakeshore doesn't look that great

Go out for a walk and take a video!

Yup, jumped right over me too... Hopefully the models are right with the main band stalling once it reaches central Erie, but it doesn't seem like it.

I have a good feeling the immediate Southtowns are gonna get screwed and transitioned right after. That lower band is heading right up to Niagara county from the looks of it.

If does end up stalling in one place, they are going to get dumped on, that's for sure! Last night's intensity + lighter, fluffier snow = >4" rates

As of right now it seems I'm right on the southern edge, since it's kinda alternating between lighter and heavier snow. Hopefully that model bias holds true for tomorrow afternoon and I get square in the center of the band, instead of the further southtowns. Just goes to show just how hard it is to forecast LES, which is definitely part of the beauty!

What's your guys thoughts on how the radar looks upstream in Cleveland? Are the winds really already shifting West out there? Or are we going to be in for a lakeshore hugger throughout the night?

Wow, the cold the models are showing across the Midwest next week is pretty insane. -25 to -35 with wind chill as low as -60 Thursday morning! Thank goodness we have the lakes to modify that air mass. Hopefully we can get a day of SW flow of Erie before it fully ices over from that!

For what it's worth, the latest WRF actually shows the band setting up in the northtowns for a bit Friday morning