Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes. Two rules that have consistently served me well: 1.) Changes in the first event likely impact the second, for better or worse. 2.) Details on the second event typically won't become clear until the next operational run that has RAOB data (00z or 12z). Example: the 2nd Feb 2010 event became clearer 12 hours after the first event had cleared out. -
Our team is intrigued as well. In fact, we have a mesonet site and a micronet site going in College Park in an area with less concrete this spring. We'll see what the results are.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
UMD has added a micronet to the Maryland Mesonet for College Park. Early results show a clear UHI. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The gradient from that event was incredible. Takoma Park recorded 5" of snow, while Damascus got almost 24", IIRC. -
Wait until we get into the wheelhouse of the short term guidance and it runs the mix line all the way up to Albany last minute. I hope.Im wrong but we saw that with the 2018 December event.
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What kind of horse? We own a Clydesdale mix.
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Topped out at 56 degrees. Our low temperature the last few nights has been near the normal high temperature....
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts. -
That's 1am and it's almost 70 degrees from NYC south. Read the room.
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Well probably never see that again in these parts.
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It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.
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I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.
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Yea SSW seems a bust.
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I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality.
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Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts.
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RE: @CAPE's last post. If it takes only a week to get the Pacific puke out of Canada that's excellent. It's amazing how the Great Lakes are virtually ice free as we ring on 2024. That's insane.
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I'm all for that. I'm legit hoping we got bonkers January and February and March, but man it's hard to bet against the house these days.
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Unless I'm missing something, that looks pretty rancid in Canada. Just Pacific puke in our source region.
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Welp
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I know DC got missed but that hit a lot of areas to the SE that typically get shafted. That storm was great for folks who often are on the outside looking in like Salisbury.
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La Nina-esque
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Doesn't matter if you have a raging Pacific jet anymore.
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No I'm talking about years when the LR thread cancels winter in October and you just know it's going to be a shutout. Not even flurries or car toppers.
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You've been 100% right so far. No reason to doubt you. We'll probably start seeing snowless winters and 65 degree Christmas days on the regular within the next 5 to 10 years. Stockholm Syndrome. People can't believe it's happening so quickly.
