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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    All good points. Some could argue that Ivan in 2004 warranted a high risk for the area...there was something like 40 confirmed tornadoes from that event and it's highly unusual to have that number in this area. Heck, we get DY1 MOD Risk that "verifies" with like 7 EF-0 tornadoes. During Ivan, there was 29 F0/1, 10 F2, 1 F3.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Some decent training setting up along the Route 26 corridor.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely looking like a Carroll/Baltimore/Harford jackpot today.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    If you look at last night's radar, there was a spot where the activity fell apart between Gettysburg and Lancaster. It seems the atmosphere wasn't overturned and it shows on the SPC mesoanalysis with LIs around -7 and impressive low level lapse rates. Baltimore and Westminster are certainly in a better spot compared to DC for this event it seems. Mappy and the Carroll County crrew might jackpot bigly from this.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that line has really lit up.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    With the increase in SVRs and now even a TOR in PA, I'm surprised a severe thunderstorm watch hasn't been issued at least for southern PA and into northern MD.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    All of LWX and Delmarva (north of US 50) added to the DY1 slight...15% wind.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    The lone warned cell in Central PA so far has been the only thing producing sustained damage reports. That is probably being fed by a little vort max or something. I would argue it's probably going to be the main show and would scrape through Baltimore and Harford counties.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Nice picture. It's almost criminal to not be throwing a frog in that water. Looks like some prime bass fishing.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Next storm smells fishy, especially if it winds itself up up too fast.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like west of I-270 is the place to be today.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    80% chance of a T'storm watch shortly: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1570.html
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Eh, it's okay. Mappy get a couple of 55dbz pixels over her. The rest is pretty typical summer storms. Nothing that would warrant an ENH. In fact, the 15z HRRR is mostly dry for the DY1 ENH area. The best activity is west of Westminster.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    They would certainly produce some rain for everyone's yards. It seems the HRRR has handled the morning batch of convection the "best". We are going to have to see what things look like around 5:00 pm or so. The action doesn't really appear to develop until it sinks south of the PA Turnpike. The latest HRRR, for example, has the line coming through the DC area around 23z to 01z. Not the greatest timing, but NW flow events usually jackpot someone.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR would at least water everyone's grass.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this was already posted, but this thread is worth reading:
  19. Eskimo Joe
    I miss the days of getting a 8" - 12" storm, then a clipper a few days later that adds a nice 2" - 4" of fluff on top of everything. Clipper snows always have that nice little sweet spot surprise.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Everything correlates to a warm [insert winter month here] anymore in these parts.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Glad to see you back Joey!
  22. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, 93L needs to be at least a PTC. Several ASCAT passes show it's healthy, has a tightening circulation and isn't getting disrupted by anything (shear, etc.).
  23. Eskimo Joe
    We have a lot of DCAPE. Going to be some good wind reports today and some interesting multicell clusters.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    80% on the meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1310.html
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Yup, beefy SBCAPe/DCAPE = localized woo storms.
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