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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Cue the old adages: ARW = Always Really Wet or Always Really Wild NMM = Not Much Moisture
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow is shaping up to be a classic severe weather outbreak for PA and NY. You have robust surface heating combined with a dynamic front...terrain aided updrafts could produce some storms pushing classic supercells. I wouldn't be shocked to see a DY1 Moderate risk for parts of PA and NY tomorrow if things come together in the morning.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I look at weather through the lens of my profession. If I'm interested in an event, it means I'll be working in the EOC. To get excited about something more than 30 to 48 hours out is foolhardy to me in my old age.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Indeed. The mid level lapse rates are key because it helps sustain the updrafts and therein overcomes the local features (terrain, subtle bay or sea breeze boundary). All of our big events had a strong EML and respectable mid level lapse rates or remnant tropical system (Isabel in 2003, Ivan in 2004).
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Saw a report and pics from Clear Spring, MD of 1.75" hail from that cell. This area can get big hailers when there's a good aid to the updraft. Interestingly enough, that was the same cell which got it's act together and dropped an EF-1 tornado in Lancaster County, PA (injuring 3 people).
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Looks pretty meh to me, but weather in general is less and less interesting to me with each passing season. We haven't had a good storm since the derecho.
  7. Eskimo Joe
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Big mts. out there aiding updrafts. Looks like a US15 and points west kind of day. Metro areas probably stay dry.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Could be a sneaky severe day today. Good CAPE and some shear.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    The Frederick cell is about to transverse it's own outflow boundary and the bay breeze pushing west. Wonder if that jazzes it back up.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Likely HAARP and wind turbines...major gov interference! /chuck
  12. Eskimo Joe
    They have a history of not being a clean spot. Bird in Hand restaurant and buffet is far, far better.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    BWI 100 DCA 100 IAD 101 RIC 101 HGR 97
  14. Eskimo Joe
    How often do you see a box in a marginal risk?
  15. Eskimo Joe
    If you look at the visible loop, there appears to be some low level boundary sitting NW -> SE on the VA side of the Potomac River.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Pity meso to our SW. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0514.html
  17. Eskimo Joe
    As usual, the HRRR is HRRRible.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore. Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    It's probably not happening today...the wedge is going to win today. Mt. Holly's AFD supposes the clearing might work to Philly today. If it get to Wilmington I'll be surprised. You can see the low clouds just sitting there and being reinforced by flow off the ocean along US 50 from PG County east.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Gonna need to clear out ASAP if we want any chance at something today. Satellite reallly has the wedge holding firm.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Those are pretty silly parameters. Don't know why people use them.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Link?
  24. Eskimo Joe
    That's a chronic issue with public and private schools nationwide. It's a topic that's frequently discussed at EM meetings and conferences about getting schools to take natural hazards seriously. They're so focused on school shootings.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    2nd tornado in the watch box, thus verifying it. SPC is batting perfect on the red boxes in our area so far this year.
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