Eskimo Joe

18z GFS/GEFS and Euro are all good for a plowable snowfall for much of this subforum towards the end of next week. Behind that, strong consensus for below normal temps and a weather pattern favorable for additional storms. Couple of caveats worth noting: 1.) IMO, I would focus more on ensemble guidance until 00z Tuesday. After that, put more weight on operational guidance. 2.) We're looking at al almost El Nino like pattern in a La Nina pattern. Weird things can happen. 3.) I don't think this turns into a MECS or HECS, the ceiling for this seems SECS. That being said, this would be Christmas snow with deep cold after it and put many places at or above climo for December. It's a solid pattern that we are entering!

Friendly reminder to not doom and gloom over individual runs of operational models beyond D5. Put more weight in ensembles.

Was referring to December snow climo. Obviously December 2009 is the gold standard, but just cover the grass for Christmas please. Looks like cross polar flow and a solid PNA ridge. Very good to see.

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Still a decent number of storm related calls for icing in northern & western Frederick County, MD.

12z EPS is a classic look for an east coast storm. This gets everybody on the board and probably meets or exceeds December climo for many.

12z EPS has great banana high from Texas to Quebec. Classic east coast storm signal.

You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/30-Dec-00.html

All aboard the Eskimo Express!

Agreed. Classic vort pass for a solid plowable snowfall at IAD, DCA, and BWI.

Not surprising this came on quick. HM has said in the past that PNA and EPO forecasting beyond D7 isn't as reliable as the AO/NAO.

IMO, the 2hr delay calls were good. It allowed people to just pace themselves.

Up in Westminster for an appointment and it'd 32 with ZR on the sidewalks by the airport.

M0.05 ZR Reisterstown

From the Mid Altantic forum. This bodes even better for folks in this subforum.

Alert MCPS MCPS, including the Virtual Academy, will open two hours late Thursday, Dec. 15, due to anticipated emergency weather conditions. More information at www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org

No, The Eskimo Express.

Down to 31/19 in Reisterstown

This is classic @psuhoffman how we win. As @WxUSAF said, 3" - 6" in December is climo and then some.

Take a look at the hole in blizzard conditions in SW South Dakota. Imagine if that occurred here. Ji would have the meltdown to crash the board.

Ice map seems reasonable. Last updated 9:44 am this morning.

@MillvilleWx excellent write up as always. Your thoughts mirror mine as well. My only two questions are: 1.) Does cloud cover minimize our high temps and we bust low. 2.) With this starting overnight, does the lack of insolation mean ice accretes more effectively?

Looks like LWX extending the WWA for the Mason-Dixon counties until 4pm tomorrow. Makes sense, dews seem a bit lower than forecast, it's cloudy today and surfaces are chilled.