Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Just a heads up, these cells firing in Baltimore mean business M0.3" in 15 min at my rain gage just NW of Baltimore City.
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WPC meso: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=679&yr=2023
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Radar go brrrr
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Appears Reading ASOS may have measured 0.75" of rain in 15 min. Very impressive.
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Low level lapse rates are pretty decent (approaching 8c/km) and DCAPE is nearing 900j/kg in the watch area. IMO, definitely a wet microburst risk.
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Mesoscale disco for Baltimore metro and points NE: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1475.html CC: @mappy @toolsheds @psuhoffman
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Sever Thunderstorm Watch until 8pm being issued for most of DC/Baltimore metro.
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Impressive:
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Another watch box coming: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1474.html
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Pretty safe to say some of the CAMs are busting hard and seem to be underestimating the morning activity. HRRR appears to have missed all of the pre-game convection from I-83 northeast into PA.
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I-76 @ MM 329 (WEADLEY RD) looks to be 1 to 2 feet of water across the road. Mt. Holly CWA jackpots again.
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Updated LWX AFD:
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You can see the orographic enhancement along Catoctin Mt. and into S. Central PA already. Classic summertime setup for heavy rain.
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out for Carroll, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Cecil, and Harford counties until 6pm.
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Cautiously agree with you.
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It's a shame the trough aix isn't further SW into say SW PA. We'd be game on for a truly interesting day.
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HRRR really loves I-270 and points north and east today. Some parts of NE Maryland and Baltimore metro really jackpot (3"+).
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Early morning CAMs seem pretty progressive. Seems like we can put the flood risk to bed. More of a scattered wind threat today.- 2,785 replies
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Welcome to mesoscale forecasting.
