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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Starting to think this might be a legit cold front coming out way.
  2. 12z Euro/NAM/GFS seems insistent on some little 925/850 wind maximum hitting Baltimore some time between 12z and 18z Friday. Even GFS BUKFIT has some decent winds mixing down to the surface.
  3. Both the NAM and GFS have some insane frontogenetic forcing with this fropa tomorrow. Probably going to see a few snow squall warnings as this thing rips through.
  4. The Feb 2006 storm was indeed a thread-the-needle event. I was at Millersville at the time and remember we scored a few narrow hits that left DC with rain. For the Feb 2006 event, we were supposed to be cloudy with a midday start time, but we woke up to full sun and temps in the mid 30s. Thankfully we narrowly lucked out up there, but I agree, today that storm would be a cold rain. Our climate is broken.
  5. Oof. That is a real "shut the blinds, winter is over" kind of pattern. Really, really hope that is wrong.
  6. Euro would imply brief front end frozen threat similar to the 12z CMC/GFS. Right around sunrise Thursday.
  7. Check out the 850 winds at hr 78 on the Euro, 12z Friday. Looks like most of us are in a left exit region of the jet. Would at least support some decent snow showers or maybe even a period of light snow. By HR84, 18z Fri, there's another wind maxima over Baltimore metro, would aid in cold air advection and make for a pretty nasty afternoon. Heck, by 00z Sat, the Euro wants to bring low end High Wind Warning criteria gusts to the Mason-Dixon counties.
  8. "Windy with scattered snow showers. Accumulations an inch or less." Seems like a decent forecast.
  9. 12z CMC has trended somewhat colder at the onset of the event Friday. Would imply some front end frozen north of I-70.
  10. Add some debris lake effect clouds and it's entirely possible BWI and IAD get a -20 depature day.
  11. GFS is rather nuts...takes the main storm at the OH/MI border from 991mb at 06z Friday, to sub 960 mb in Quebec at 00z Saturday.
  12. Would imply at least snow showers. Pretty impressive pressure falls too! Would imply some really windy conditions Friday.
  13. 850/925 mb winds would imply some kind of low topped squall line Friday midday, no?
  14. According to my Tempest, we were stuck in the upper 30s until about 3am when the cloud deck broke. Got down to 33.
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