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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Worried that we see a drop off north of I-66. This seems like a Virginia and maybe Delmarva event.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    If things sustain or uptick a bit I could eventually see a D1 ENH for southern Delmarva or RIC land. Really not confident about this north of I-66 until I wake up Monday morning and see we aren't contaminated with debris clouds or something else.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    It's an FAA radar so the mystery will remain a mystery.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    If we wake up Monday with little or no debris clouds, it could be interesting. Stout mid level lapse rates are a key ingredient in overcoming the mesoscale geographic features that mitigate a lot of our severe weather days.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    D2 MOD is the eternal kiss of death.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Based off the morning data, Monday appears to have solid Slight Risk potential.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    M0.46" Reisterstown yesterday. This brings me to 1.49" for the month of June. Hope we can manage another half inch.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    ^try TIAD (Dulles) or TDCA (Reagan). Better view than Dover.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yes St. Mary's and Calvert are getting the goods. Might actually see some flooding out of that training line of storms setting up.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Couple of days ago, WPC had 72 hour QPF forecast of close to 3" for I-95. Too far west once again.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like after this round that's it for today. CAMs went really quiet for late this afternoon and evening.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    I firmly believe that CAMs and mid range guidance have a south and west bias for rainfall maximums in this part of the country.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.srbc.net/our-work/fact-sheets/docs/flood-summary-june_2006.pdf
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Why not both? I still think most of this slides to the east and we get missed again west of the Bay.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Get out of my head.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    TDCA radar showing some heavier cells trying to organize in northern Virginia. Even a few CGs detected near Tappahannock ASOS. Looks like this might be the activity that some of the CAMs were advertising for early this afternoon.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    With M0.12" overnight, I've finally cracked an inch of rain for the month of June.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    We don't do well in the rainfall department with closed lows over Tennessee. The NAM was the first to pick up on this more southern solution early on and the Euro appears to have lagged the most. Our "good" track for closed lows that meander like this are over central Kentucky or southern West Virginia.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Need a more uniform stratiform rain though to really make a dent. Something like 2" - 4" over a couple of days. Nickle and diming a half inch over 2 days won't work.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Let's see how this looks on Sunday afternoon, but there's definitely some potential.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Really hope we can manage and inch of rain tomorrow. Only M0.62" for all of yesterday.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    M0.53" Reisterstown
  23. Eskimo Joe
    EML and dews over 70 degrees with NW flow. Those are our winnable setups.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Finally a legit steady, soaking rain.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    M0.2" Reisterstown
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