Eskimo Joe

Please just give the Mid Altantic a shot in a La Nina.

Behind the chances for this week, we turn into a legit -NAO/-AO and neutral to slightly +PNA, with favorable EPO. No two ways about, we are looking decent.

12z GFS is gonna do it at HR252. The primary low at 500mb washed out and transfers everything to the coast. Not bad.

Old forecasting rule was 3 to 4 isobars ahead of the storm it meant the Gulf was open for business. Looks like health blocking in Canada and the Atlantic at 500mb at HR240 ahead of the storm. That's nice.

Let's not sleep on the 19th - 21st on the GFS either. High pressure is locked in nicely ahead of a gulf storm.

Indeed. At this point, we want to watch the 850/500 mb evolution. Wait until 00z Monday to start worrying about the surface.

12z GEFS thru HR156 have a weak coastal low and everyone gets at least some light snow. That's pretty good. Onto the Euro.

^not bad. Anyone got that map with individual low placement for the same time?

Yup. This time last year it was mid 50s with pacific puke. We're looking better this year.

-PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities.

We don't fail. We get on the board.

Yes. I like it. We're D5/D6, but this is nice. Time for the ensembles. See my previous post and bullet #1.

You're going to like the 12z GFS for the 14th to 15th. It has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up tp 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby.

12z GFS op has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up to 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby.

LWX D6 winter weather threat:

Couple of thoughts: 1.) It's //possible// the primary low drifts into MI and weakens such that we don't get our CAD eroded fast and bootleg our way into a legit wedge of CAD. Then the primary takes over and we get some frozen off that. A scenario like that would feature, mix/snow thump, then mix/ice, then snow. It's a odd way to win and I've seen it happen once or twice, but you need a legit airmass in place. 2.) Ideally, with a setup like this, you want to see the primary go up into Kentucky and die fast, with a quick handoff to a coastal low that deepens and stops the bleeding at the mid levels. IMO, the first step towards this solution would be to see the surface low over Texas instead of Denver.

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Strong blocks for interesting things. It's possible that we bootleg our way into something. Wouldn't be the first time either. That being said, it's wise to keep expectations low.

Same down here in the NW Baltimore suburbs. It's so hard in a La Nina to score a clean event...but seems easier up your way.