Eskimo Joe

RE: Dec 16th - 18th window. I'm optimistic that at least north of I-70 gets some kind of frozen from that.

The next 7 to 10 days are going to reiterate why elevation and latitude matter so much. Y'all have a solid chance to get on the board a couple of times beginning Sunday night (mostly north of the PA Turnpike), then again sometime between December 16th - 19th (could be a legit plowable event for many). I must confess that Monday and Tuesday this week, my confidence was shaken a bit that we might be getting Lucy'd, but things snapped back into place pretty quickly.

Rejoice weenies. 2nd half of December will feature snow. Would probably want to get the outside decorations finished this weekend.

Nice

We can dream.

Yea don't do that. We fish a body or two out a year from people who try to skate there.

My brother was bon in December 1989 in Philly. My parents remark to this day how cold that month was.

Hope you feel better man. Nature should give you some snow as a get well soon gift.

I know it's been warm, but that 75 degree reading seems a bit off.

Positively -PNA

Second this

Just give me a solid 1" and I'm happy. Would be a great start to the season.

Even the moon angle is bad now. We can' win.

Great. The pattern hasn't even changed and we already have sun angle season starting. /Ji

They had meltdowns during 2009 - 2010 winter.

Yea Dec 10 to 15 onward looks good. We're clearly moving that direction.

Sure thing: NWS website on 500mb: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/500mb#:~:text=For the 500 mb level,5%2C640 meters (18%2C503 feet) University of Arizona: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/lectures/sec1/info500mb.html PSU: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/94

The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of?

Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire.

Dry air. Wife was riding her horse last night in Skyesville and remarked how it got so cold so fast.

Couple of thoughts: 1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. 2.) It's December, and it's La Nina. These are two hostile background environments for us. Folks need to realize this won't be a 2009-2010 December and be happy with what we get. 3.) Climo say that 7% of winters here feature a White Christmas. I honestly believe that a bit of patience will yield us a higher than normal chance of a White Christmas this year.