Eskimo Joe

Warning level event from RIC to BOS, with solid cold behind it. Yes please.

Snowfall for DCA, BWI, and IAD from 00z from this one event would meet or exceed the climo for the entire month of December. Where do I sign?

Way, way too early to look at the NAM.

West coast ridge is better on the 12z GEFS. This is good to see.

Just cover the grass for Christmas. That's all I'm asking for.

Agreed. It does seem that when there is a northern stream dominant event, the newer GFS does seem to latch onto things quicker than the CMC and Euro. I am wondering if it is getting better assimilation of data from North America?

Really quite excited to see what the GEFS has to say in a bit.

During the 2016 blizzard, the GFS handled the northern stream energy better than the Euro, Ukmet, and Canadian in the D5 - D7 range. We might be seeing that again.

I'll take the GFS in a skinny minute and call it a winter.

Through HR 108 on the 12z GFS, I don't see any major differences at 500 mb.

Mid Altantic snow lovers right now

06z EPS doesn't go out beyond 144 hours so let's not jump off a cliff.

He's a big game hunter. Even then, it's not good enough.

Same! Where do I sign?

It's showing a lot of promise. I'm in a few NWS partners work groups and I like it.

Just keeping my D8 expectations in check.

18z GFS/GEFS and Euro are all good for a plowable snowfall for much of this subforum towards the end of next week. Behind that, strong consensus for below normal temps and a weather pattern favorable for additional storms. Couple of caveats worth noting: 1.) IMO, I would focus more on ensemble guidance until 00z Tuesday. After that, put more weight on operational guidance. 2.) We're looking at al almost El Nino like pattern in a La Nina pattern. Weird things can happen. 3.) I don't think this turns into a MECS or HECS, the ceiling for this seems SECS. That being said, this would be Christmas snow with deep cold after it and put many places at or above climo for December. It's a solid pattern that we are entering!

Friendly reminder to not doom and gloom over individual runs of operational models beyond D5. Put more weight in ensembles.

Was referring to December snow climo. Obviously December 2009 is the gold standard, but just cover the grass for Christmas please. Looks like cross polar flow and a solid PNA ridge. Very good to see.

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Still a decent number of storm related calls for icing in northern & western Frederick County, MD.

12z EPS is a classic look for an east coast storm. This gets everybody on the board and probably meets or exceeds December climo for many.