raindancewx

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year. Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 Week Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 28JAN2015 24.8-0.3 26.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 04FEB2015 25.0-0.5 26.2 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 11FEB2015 25.1-0.8 26.6 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.0 0.9 18FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.7 0.3 27.3 0.5 29.0 1.0 25FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.8 0.1 27.5 0.6 29.3 1.2 04MAR2015 25.8-0.5 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 1987 weakened too, briefly. 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1987 3 28.27 27.14 1.13 1987 4 28.40 27.58 0.82 1987 5 28.56 27.68 0.88 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1976-77 definitely died for a bit - 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1977 3 27.48 27.04 0.44 1977 4 27.45 27.42 0.03 1977 5 27.72 27.51 0.22

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW. Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years) August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW. Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March. Mar Nino 3.4 2016 28.90 1983 28.66 1992 28.66 1998 28.62 1958 28.27 1987 28.27 1966 28.21 2010 28.18 2019 ??

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks. I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201810 -0.75 201811 -0.78 201812 -0.12 201901 -0.23 201902 -0.55

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.

The big time storm / severe outbreak that is depicted on the models is pretty consistent with the SOI crash on 3/1 to 3/3 - storms tend to show up in the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun - Feb Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 12 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 1936 28.31 27.25 26.72 26.52 Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

That's a tornado pattern. Also, the storm depicted on 3/11-3/12 is the most precipitation I've ever seen a model show for March in New Mexico. The Euro has had over an inch of precipitation for several runs now, and the start of the event would be Monday morning. I'm sure it would find a way to snow even toward El Paso if the storm verified as depicted.

How about this for your crazy February 2019 analog re-creation? To be fair, Montana was -20 to -25 v. 1951-2010 averages, so the severity isn't right, but spatially it isn't bad. I had the wrong top matches for February 2019 in the Nino zones - it is actually 1995, 2003, 1993, 1973, 2010, 1966, in that order for closeness. Best blend for re-creating February 2018 in the Nino zones I could get was: 1958 (x3), 2007 (x2), 2010 (x1), 2015 (x2), 2016 (x1), 2017 (x4). In the Southwest, 1958, 1973, 2003, 2007 are all pretty wet in March. 1958 and 1973 are actually top five for wetness in the last 100 years. Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 Weight 1958 29.12 28.24 27.44 26.36 3 2007 28.66 26.88 26.49 26.21 2 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 1 2015 29.07 27.17 26.46 25.57 2 2016 29.41 29.01 28.38 27.40 1 2017 28.11 26.67 26.83 27.46 4 Blend 28.75 27.42 27.02 26.62 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 1966 28.64 27.55 26.90 25.49 1973 28.59 27.95 27.20 26.26 1993 28.30 27.16 26.80 26.40 1995 28.91 27.49 26.85 26.20 2003 28.88 27.39 26.84 25.98 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66

When I did objective matches to Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 for February, I think the top years came out as February 1995, 2003, 1973, 2007, 1987, 1966. It's interesting, a blend of Feb 1987 and Feb 1988 is actually dead on for Feb 2019 in Nino 3.4, and Nino 3, but too cold in the other zones. I'd have to double check my records but I don't know of any double El Ninos where both El Ninos are during low solar activity if we are to move into another El Nino next winter. If you consider 1952-53 an El Nino (I do not), the 1952-53 to 1953-54 double El Nino is probably the only transition where both El Ninos were low solar since 1931. 1977-78 and 1987-88 both had low solar initially, but rapidly transitioned to high solar activity in the July-Jun years. That may be possible but it doesn't look to me like a rapid uptick is coming with the last minimum being centered around February 2009. July to June 1987-88 had 29-140 sunspots per month, 65 for the 12-month average, and July to June 1977-78 had 30-135 sunspots per month, 84 for the 12-month average. 1913-14 and 1914-15, and 1899-00, 1900-01 were both low solar El Ninos if you believe the extended data, so might have to look at the 1914-15 and 1900-01. I know supposedly Albuquerque had 40 inches of snow in 1914-15, with 27.5" falling in January 1915 with temperatures below 0 at a site a couple miles - and lower elevation - than the airport. Would love to see the setup for that. For being 100+ years ago, those winters are actually not that cold nationally.

February saw a steady anomaly in Nino 3.4 on the CPC data - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.45 26.66 0.78 For DJF 2018-19, that's a 27.38C El Nino. My analogs for winter were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07. Blended together, that was a 27.4C El Nino too. 1953 12 27.01 26.18 0.83 1954 1 26.98 26.18 0.80 1954 2 27.03 26.39 0.64 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1994 12 27.85 26.66 1.19 1995 1 27.57 26.59 0.98 1995 2 27.49 26.79 0.71 2006 12 27.74 26.65 1.09 2007 1 27.25 26.45 0.80 2007 2 26.90 26.66 0.23 1953 (27.00C), 1976 (27.18C), 1986 (27.76C), 1994 x2 (27.63C), 2006 (27.30C) as a blend: 27.42C March only has to finish above +0.0C for JFM to be the 5th El Nino tri-mester, once that happens this event will be colored red - Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 Weeklies are now very similar to 2009-10 for strength. I do like that year for Spring after not liking it for Winter. A +1.0C Nino 3.4 in March would be pretty strong historically if the level of warmth were to remain. A lot of the strongest El Ninos were not too far off from that in March. A +1.0C March is like a blend of 3/1973 and 3/1983 were it to verify that warm. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 24FEB2010 26.5 0.3 27.4 0.8 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1

I'm very curious to see what CPC has for February Nino 3.4 data. I think it's +0.7C or so, but we'll see. The MJO for 10/1-10/16 is similar to 2/24-3/9, i.e. migration through 1-2-3 and then the wave goes null for a bit. I can't find any Marches on record in Albuquerque without at least one or more days with a high of 54F or less, so I'm on board with what CPC shows in the long-range, cold gradually retrogressing to the West. March 1975 started very warm in the Southwest, like this year, before cooling. It had the big +SOI in Dec, and then a -SOI in January. Big warm up (+1.3C) in Nino 3.4 from the much stronger La Nina of 1973-74. The rains depicted on the GFS for 3/8/2019 in New Mexico are consistent with the first good storm of 3/1975 - also on 3/8. None of the plants or trees are in bloom yet here - so I suspect there is more severe cold (for Spring) yet to come. In 2018, the SOI went very negative in February and then popped positive in March (-7.7 to +8.4). Doesn't look likely this year - so March should end up pretty different nationally. On the European, the SOI looks pretty negative overall for the next week, with a neutral day or two thrown in.

The North Pacific in Fall kind of reminded me of a warmed up 1994-95 honestly. Very warm waters east of Japan that winter too. Atlantic not super different either. My blend +0.1C wasn't too bad for winter. El Nino structure was right, with the Atlantic the cool spot in the Northern Hemisphere.

In a month or two this may go back to having an East based look, at least for a little while. That cold blotch east of 100W is surrounded by warmth.

For Dec-Jan, snowfall, and precipitation overall, I'm pretty happy with what I had this winter, it was the analogs +1F generally for Dec-Jan. February is super different though - it went to the +9 SOI map you'd expect. Overall, still close for highs in most parts of the US outside the Dakotas, Montana, and coastal SE.

I think the ONI number will be in soon since the CPC ONI site is down, but for now, the subsurface warmed up to +1.07 in the 100-180W zone. Most similar DJF transition for the subsurface is 1989-90. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Canadian sees the Kelvin Wave and went stronger for the El Nino in Spring. It is backing off the La Nina look for next winter now.

Coldest winter high (Dec-Feb) in Albuquerque since 2009-10 this winter: 48.1F. Long term average (1931-32 to 2017-18) is 49.5F. More recent average (1988-89 to 2017-18) is 50.5F, so pretty cold. I think fifth or sixth coldest high in winter in the last 30 years for us.

The new Canadian is in. Trended stronger for El Nino in Spring, which makes sense given the slow warming at the surface and below it recently. It has a basin wide look and a colder tropical Atlantic too which is interesting for the hurricane season set up. The relative warmth nationally compared to what is coming the next few days implies a big warm up later in the month, which is consistent with the activity in the Indian Ocean (convection) which showed up before the big December warm up. Here is what it has for Spring temps in the US - March looks pretty similar to the CFS for temps and precip.

The SOI is going to finish February somewhere around -15, pretty impressive turn around from +9 in December. There are no strong, objective SOI matches for the Dec-Feb period, but these are the closest. I should note: 1989 is probably going to be the strongest subsurface match for 100-180W, since 1979 for Dec-Feb. Distance SOI Dec Jan Feb 0.0 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15 17.8 1959 6.9 0.2 -1.7 18.0 1989 -5.3 -1.9 -18.4 18.0 1947 3.9 -3.6 -3.7 18.4 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 19.0 1956 8.5 4.5 -3.2 In terms of actually matching the SOI in the three month period, I think this is much closer - Top SOI Match for March SOI Dec Jan Feb 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2004 -10.1 1.2 -29.5 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 7.8 -0.2 -10.4 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15.0 My hunch is March 1975 will end up pretty close for March 2019, they're linked in the solar cycle too (1975 + 11*4). The Dec/Jan and Feb patterns are pretty close, and early March 1975 also looks close to what is forecast for temps nationally. It's not a bad MJO match either. La Nina...but it had coupling problems (big -SOI showed up), and it was a La Nina far warmer than 1973-74 in Nino 3.4 year/year. I do it expect at least some areas of the US to be warmer than March 1975, but the "look" seems about right.

My pure analogs had 3-5F below average for March in North Texas. I didn't buy it...so I warmed it up 2F. But maybe I should have given what may happen next week. For Albuquerque, every El Nino back to 1931 that has achieved six days with accumulating snow has had a 7th. We had day six on Friday. If the rule holds, it means snow in March or April since we're done with snow in February.

The ice extent on the Atlantic side must be pretty high given the warmth in Alaska? Since the late February extent numbers are above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 2006 and 2005. If that's the case it does kind of make sense, the AMO has been pretty cold recently.

March still looks promising for the El Nino given rising subsurface heat, so we should easily clear five trimesters above +0.5C in Nino 3.4. https://imgur.com/copmt4o Weekly data is centered, i.e. 2/20 is through 2/23. The 12-week average for Nino 3.4 is 27.3C, and CPC uses a DJF average of 26.58C for Nino 3.4. For Dec/Jan, CPC reported slightly different monthly numbers 27.49C (Dec), 27.25C (Jan). February is likely 27.3C (+/-0.15C) on the monthly data. February base is 26.66C according to CPC, so that's still El Nino territory, around +0.65C. ONI will be around +0.7C for DJF. Nino 4 near record territory for Feb warmth is strongly correlated to wetness in the Plains/SW in March, it didn't work in 2016 (snowed near Guadalajara), but we're not quite that warm, it's closer to 2010, 2005, 2003, 2015, 1958, 1995, 1998, etc. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0

This is a pretty interesting winter overall for the US. Increasingly suspicious that the linkage between solar activity and blocking is real, I think there is a better case for solar activity controlling the MJO indirectly. I can't find a winter since 1974 where the MJO has gotten "stuck" as many times as it has this year in high solar activity years. My Spring analogs actually had Texas pretty cold in March - but there are fairly strong correlations between low-solar activity and warmth in the SE 1/3 of the US. Bit of a dry signal for the SW US too. The blend I posted earlier is going to be dead on again locally for February (we're at 49.8F and will finish around 51F in February), and it has been close each month since October. If it has any similar skill at all in March it should be pretty cold in the Southwest in March. At this point I'm curious to see when it breaks, because it will at some point.

Nino 1.2 was the coldest it had been since 1985 in February (25.13C). The March temperature pattern largely reflected that, with the NW somewhat offset by the very -SOI in February which is a strong indicator for March in Washington. We'll see what the weeklies show for the next two weeks, but jumping up to 26.0-26.5C in February seems like a pretty safe bet to warm up the areas above the black line, especially the NW and Lakes. Worth noting that 2011-12 had a 20 point SOI drop from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012, and similar Nino 1.2 readings in Feb 2019 (26.5C). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9

Albuquerque is up to 9.5 inches of snow through 2/23 - that's the Oct-May average, so above average through 2/23. Looking back at October 2018, the MJO went through phases 1-2-3 from Oct 1 to Oct 16, before moving into the dead zone. The MJO is forecast to move through phases 1-2-3 in from 2/25 to 3/10 on the European. In October, huge blobs of tropical moisture came into the SW throughout the month. Will be interesting to see if that happens - for NM, the best precipitation was a week after the move from phase 3 to null, which would be around 3/17 roughly if the MJO timing is right.