raindancewx

The subsurface warmth below the surface may be weakening some with the warmth surfacing now. My hunch is by the official metrics we stay in El Nino territory into June or so, and then stay in Neutral. I don't have a good sense for next winter yet.

Albuquerque is at 97 lows of 32F or less since 10/1 - pretty high by recent standards and even by longer term historical standards.

Going into next year, it will be interesting to see what the sun does. On a y/y basis, monthly sunspots were up by 7 in March, after being up in November and January. There has not been a double El Nino with low solar activity each time since 1952-53/1953-54, or 1913-14/1914-15 depending on what criteria you use for an El Nino. My threshold for low solar activity is a July-Jun average of 50 sunspots or less, that seems to be the threshold when effects show up if you use a ROC predictive analysis for false positives/false negatives. Also, its been interesting looking at snow anomalies this year v. in a standard El Nino -

March in Nino 3.4 is likely +1.0C - about 28.2C (CPC uses 27.2C as average in Nino 3.4 in March) Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 Subsurface heat is declining again now, but +1.42 in March - third highest since 1979. The look on the weeklies now is the most "Modoki" look since Fall. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Warm Nino 3.4 March is a strong warm signal in the SE in July. These are the 28.0C-28.4C Nino 3.4 Marches since 1950: 2010 1966 1958 1987 Not an exact match, but it looks close to the correlation blend for temps. I'll post my Summer Outlook on here in mid-May once I get a sense of what April does.

March ended up with a high of 62.2F here, but that is the coldest March since 2010 in Albuquerque. Rains today (trying valiantly to go over to snow, but it is 35F) also make March 2019 the wettest March in the city since 2005. My Spring Forecast had 59.8F / 0.75" for Albuquerque in March, we'll end up at 62.2F / and at least 0.67".

The new Canadian run has a very warm US in April like the CFS does. It continues the current El Nino into next winter, which is a warmer forecast than before. Eastern US trended much drier for April too. The CPC cool zone is right where Nino 3.4 March SSTs are strongest as a cool signal for April temps. Nino 3.4 was likely around 28.2C in March, pretty warm.

SOI finished March at -6.5, listed some SOI analogs back on 3/24 CFS currently has a very warm April nationally with some weakness in the heat in the West. Canadian should be out later today with another idea for April and a new read on the El Nino.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Subsurface heat transition for Jan, Feb, Mar is most similar to early 1990. Below surface heat of +1.5 as I've estimated for March would be third warmest in March since 1979. Anything above +1.6 is the warmest March since 1979 but going by the image, doesn't look like we hit that. Year Jan Feb Mar Distance 2019 0.76 1.10 1.50 0.00 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.40 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 0.63 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 0.90 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.98 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 1.05 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 1.46

Next big wave of heat is arriving to the eastern Nino zones from below now. The SOI is around -6.5 for March. Looks like some positive and negative days are coming by 3/31 so it won't change too much. Similar JFM periods, tentatively - July-June Jan Feb Mar Top Match 2002 -2.0 -9.3 -6.6 5.6 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 5.8 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 8.0 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 11.6 1947 -3.6 -3.7 -4.6 14.2 1977 -3.6 -26.9 -6.0 14.2 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 14.2 Something like this blend works pretty well for where March is now. July-Jun Jan Feb Mar 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 Blend -3.1 -14.7 -6.3 2018 -2.2 -14.6 -6.5 Also, it is close to what the CFS shows for April.

On the last ENSO weekly update, it looked like the subsurface heat for 100-180W was leveling off at around +1.6. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Reading of +1 or -1 v. the long-term Nino 3.4 averages are much more impressive in Spring than in Winter historically.

I'm continually amazed at how strong this blend has been for Albuquerque since I started using it in October. The El Nino ended up only a 27.4C event, but for highs it has nonetheless remained a strong blend in all months since October.

Nate Mantua (JISAO) sent out the PDO values earlier this week. Nov 2018: -0.05 Dec 2018: +0.52 Jan 2019: +0.66 Feb 2019: +0.46 Nov-Feb mean: +0.40 I mentioned in the other thread that October Nino 1.2 readings blended with the PDO mean from Mar-Aug is a good indicator, and that blend implied a +0.4 PDO for Nov-Apr. Correlations to SE US cold and the PDO are actually stronger than correlations to SE cold and Nino 3.4 temps / SOI conditions. So it's been interesting seeing the PDO come in near 0 month after month. You can compare that to Nov-Apr 2014-15 when the PDO was near +2 despite similar SSTs in Nino 3.4 in winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 Subsurface heat is leveling off. Current values are like 2009-10 but more basin wide than 3/2010. 03MAR2010 26.3-0.1 27.5 0.7 28.1 1.1 29.2 1.0 10MAR2010 26.0-0.4 27.5 0.5 28.3 1.2 29.3 1.1 17MAR2010 26.2-0.3 27.8 0.7 28.4 1.1 29.2 1.1 24MAR2010 26.3 0.0 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.2 0.9

Given that the PDO is still neutral/negative it will be interesting to see what happens if another El Nino develops next winter, of if this one lasts for another year. My hunch is the current El Nino breaks up briefly later in the Summer, and then after that the real pattern for next winter will develop.

The JAMSTEC update is out. Went to a very warm Spring nationally. Still has an El Nino through Spring. It shows a cold neutral setup in Nino 3.4 in Fall.

Pretty substantial snowpack recovery in NM the past few days.

Here is a list of what happened in years following a 27.4C El Nino in Dec-Feb (Nino 3.4), give or take +0.4C. For years prior to 1950, I correlate the 1950-2019 data when both are available and then "convert" the pre-1950 to what it would look like on the 1950- data. El N ONI ONI+ 1939 27.44 27.96 1941 27.38 25.31 1953 27.00 25.56 1963 27.36 25.69 1965 27.73 26.01 1968 27.54 26.92 1976 27.18 27.15 1977 27.15 26.49 1979 27.05 26.31 1986 27.76 27.34 1987 27.34 24.83 1990 27.02 28.40 1994 27.64 25.74 2002 27.50 26.94 2004 27.22 25.80 2006 27.29 24.98 2014 27.18 29.13 2018 27.38 There is something of a warm signal in the West for winters after El Ninos, with a bit of a cold signal in the Central Plains, South and NE. El Ninos after similar Nino 3.4 composites to this year (1940-41, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16. I'll add in 2003-04 too, close enough to an El Nino for this). La Nina after similar strength El Ninos (with 1966-67, close enough). Worth noting, unlike literally all the El Ninos which are high solar, these La Ninas are almost all low solar. You'll notice the composites are dry in both cases for the interior South, which is consistent with winters following El Ninos being dry in that zone (blue = negative correlation to heavy precip following high Nino 3.4 readings). California does pretty well either way.

Albuquerque is up to 0.50" as of 8 pm with this storm. Wettest March since 2007. My Spring Forecast had 0.75" for March, so that looks...not bad. At least for now. There were two big SOI crashes 3/8-3/10, and 3/9-3/11 that support some kind of big storm around 3/21 or 3/22 in the SW. We'll see I ended up going with these amounts for Mon/Tue/Weds in the city: Monday: 0.05"-0.40" - 0.21" actual Tuesday: 0.30"-0.70" - 0.29" actual through 8 pm. (Maybe a bit as snow very late) Wednesday: 0.05-0.40" - ?? (Maybe some as snow)

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 The MJO is pretty similar to October right now, which is when this event ramped up, before weakening, so some weakening after March wouldn't be too surprising. Heat content is all the way back to October levels though -

I'll be looking for a big storm in about ten days given the recent SOI drop from 3/8 to 3/10. The models were hinting at the MJO winding back to phase 2/3 around that time earlier in the week, but it doesn't look too likely now. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Mar 2019 1010.20 1008.60 -12.02 -14.73 -3.25 9 Mar 2019 1011.85 1009.10 -6.51 -14.67 -3.11 8 Mar 2019 1013.00 1009.05 -0.77 -14.71 -3.07 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19 A big -SOI in March is a fairly strong cold signal for Texas. Warm for Washington state. Fairly strong dry signal for the Western Dakotas, and a wet signal for the mountains of Virginia. Last March the SOI was very positive, right now it is -4.6, and it looks volatile but primarily negative for the next week at least. With these maps, the lightest greens and lightest blues tend to get overwhelmed by other factors, but the darker shades usually "win" so to speak. May is actually very strongly correlated to March Nino 3.4 temps in the NW, its a very strong signal for warmth in Washington and in the NW generally. Less strong as a cold signal in May for other areas.

Euro has the El Nino remaining pretty strong into Summer and Fall now. Hardly any members go below El Nino territory. Most members are above +0.8C from now through Fall, each month.

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year. Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 Week Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 28JAN2015 24.8-0.3 26.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 04FEB2015 25.0-0.5 26.2 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 11FEB2015 25.1-0.8 26.6 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.0 0.9 18FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.7 0.3 27.3 0.5 29.0 1.0 25FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.8 0.1 27.5 0.6 29.3 1.2 04MAR2015 25.8-0.5 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 1987 weakened too, briefly. 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1987 3 28.27 27.14 1.13 1987 4 28.40 27.58 0.82 1987 5 28.56 27.68 0.88 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1976-77 definitely died for a bit - 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1977 3 27.48 27.04 0.44 1977 4 27.45 27.42 0.03 1977 5 27.72 27.51 0.22

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW. Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years) August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW. Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March. Mar Nino 3.4 2016 28.90 1983 28.66 1992 28.66 1998 28.62 1958 28.27 1987 28.27 1966 28.21 2010 28.18 2019 ??

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks. I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201810 -0.75 201811 -0.78 201812 -0.12 201901 -0.23 201902 -0.55

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.