raindancewx

October 1951 is honestly shockingly close to October 2019 for temperatures nationally - one of the best single year analog matches I've seen in a few years. Oct 1951 was a 27.2C El Nino in Nino 3.4, but it was an East-based El Nino by this point. In the West, the cold should actually push further South than 1951 by the end of the month. Areas near the Mexican border in New Mexico will be 25-30F outside the cities tomorrow morning - very cold for October that far south at fairly low elevations.

Snow in Santa Fe...low 50s in Albuquerque today. Amazing how sharp the cut offs can be in Fall and Spring systems that don't quite dive far enough south.

Last year behaved like Neutral PDO El Nino, which dumps cold in the West and Plains typically. I use 0, +/-0.5 for Nov-Apr, for the PDO as that designation. The composite is basically the same post 1950 (kind of looks like this October which is interesting). Box C (the waters by the Philippines) in the Modoki calculation is fairly strongly correlated to colder Western winters, and that zone has been relatively cold compared to recent years. Low solar El Ninos also tend to be less reliably "back-loaded" for the East in February - look at February 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2019 - definitely a variety there compared to the high solar El Nino February years. Our high terrain never stopped being cold this year, a lot of the populated towns still had frosts in June, July and August. At this point, things look at least somewhat promising for the West. Here are some pictures from New Mexico today - Angel Fire Ski Resort Red River -

My analogs had some incredible cold pushes in the West and Plains in November, despite relatively bland departures overall. A big -NAO is correlated to a warm West in November generally but you can get big snow events in the Rockies despite an overall warm November. Conceptually, the "anti-logs" to the features this year, a cold Atlantic, cold North Pacific, weak La Nina, after a weak La Nina, both in high solar, with an active Monsoon in the SW ahead of winter...is something like 1967 or 1971. If you look at October 2019 and then October 1967 and October 1971, they are both opposite of 2019 in their own way. In 1967, the core heat/cold is East/West backwards v. 2019 in October, even though it is roughly at the right latitudes. Winter 1967-68 "flipped" for being east-west backwards actually looks fairly close to what I forecast for winter. In 1971, the cold core is in the SW, and the heat core is in the NE. In 2019, the cold core is in the NW, and the heat core is in the SE. So it is North/South opposite. Winter 1971-72 flipped "North-South backwards" actually also looks fairly close to what I forecast for winter.

I couldn't get it to work at my office either. It is a link to Scribd, so maybe it is blocked? I think some have been able to see it. It is free. But I may do some subscription stuff at some point. I have a big collection of strong predictors for each region of the US now, and I've done statistical work on how they should be weighted for different seasons, and to account for the Earth warming somewhat, as well as solar stuff. For instance, in the Southwest, solar activity is a meaningful precipitation variable for Spring/Fall, but not really for winter. But in winter it does correlate for temperatures, when filtered by ENSO, and it gets stronger at certain elevations for whatever reason. https://www.scribd.com/document/429712619/Winter-2019-20-Outlook I want to be clear here: There are some El Ninos when I would go huge for snowfall in New England and the Northeast generally. I don't mean 20-50% above average, I mean double average generally, up to x3 or x4 locally - but they're rare. The blend you want is high solar, El Nino, but El Nino Modoki. 2014, 2002, 1991, 1977, 1969, 1968, 1957 all fit some extent. For what it's worth...1951-52 is an El Nino and remarkably close to October 2019 so far. It's kind of a weird borderline El Nino like this will be, which is interesting. I didn't use it as analog though. 1994 is actually pretty close in the West, and 2018 isn't too dissimilar either in October, its just the heat/cold are nudged out of place compared to 2019. Some of the El Ninos in the 1930s and 1940s aren't terrible matches to 2019 either for what its worth. If you're in the East, you do not want the 1951-52 winter if you like snow and cold.

Good start after a quiet October in New Mexico outside of one major rain event in SE NM very early in the month.

2004 is probably a good analog to November. If I had done Fall analogs, 1994, 2004, 2012, 2017, 2018 as a blend would have been pretty good. But I don't really see it lasting into winter. All the components are there - MJO matches 1994, 2004, 2018. The cool east is there with 2017 included. The temperature profile in the US looks like where Oct 2019 is going. The PDO is neutral. The IOD is positive. The coolness east of South America is there, with the gulf stream very warm off the East Coast. It's relatively low solar too. 2014 doesn't exactly look like 2019 in October...despite somewhat similar MJO progression...it makes sense since 2014 was a basin-wide El Nino in October. Only off by 10 or 20 degrees in the NW...but you know New England is destined to see snowmaggedon again. 2004 isn't as different in October as 2019, but it's still kind of north/south backwards, just a 2014 v. 2019 is east/west backwards.

Bye bye Modoki? Nino 1.2 has warmed up above 20.0C - so the PDO likely will remain positive, at least slightly for Nov-Apr. El Nino development is around a month slower than last year so far. But October Nino 3.4 reading is up to about 27.3C now. That's El Nino level, even using the 26.75C CPC uses for October as Neutral. Subsurface warmth is up again too. It looks like the subsurface heat for 100-180W could be around +0.6 or +0.7 - that is similar to October 2004 & October 2014. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9

It's not exact, but in some ways we're about a month behind the development of the El Nino last year. The cold by South America was mostly defeated by this point last year. But...it was still there in September 2018. The Oct 2019 pattern by South America looks a bit like the blend of Sept/Oct 2018.

Large area of +1C to +2C heat has filled into Nino 3.4 during the last month. With the surface readings over 27.0C in October...that's enough for Nino 3.4 to stay warm for a while. The cold in Nino 3 (90W-150W) is just about gone now too, although Nino 1.2 is still going to take a while to warm (maybe til December).

Pretty sure the IOD was positive last year too by Fall anyway, although not as much as this year. The Jamstec has it falling off later. The main thing with the IOD is it is a way to keep relatively high pressure over Australia, which helps the SOI stay negative or neutral.

Nate Mantua PDO value came in today: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Sept 2019: +0.41 Aug 2019: +0.38 Sept 2018: +0.09 I believe October will be substantially lower than September, but we will see.

Just for reference: Nino 3.4 is now very close to last year. K - 273.15 = C for reference. So the 27.0C is orange, because it is 0.5C or more above the 1951-2010 October average in Nino 3.4

At the end of the day, you can try to forecast a season using two basic methods: 1) Find predictive variables and guess what they will do (this seems to be what most of you do). That will work most of the day, but you'll get situations like last year, where 1963 matches on most of the variables that are predictive but end up completely different by ignoring weather clues, like the super hot October 1963 compared to the very cold October 2018. My analog system, prior to incorporating weather matches had 1963 as a top three match last year...but it fell off to like 15th with weather included in Fall. (2018-19 was 27.40C in Nino 3.4 for DJF, 1963-64 was 27.35C in Nino 3.4 for DJF) 2) Find predictive variables. With the predictive variables find a blend that matches the weather for a long-period, with the variables and weather still heading in the "correct" direction together going forward. This is what I try to do. I'm really looking forward to seeing the forecasts this winter - there are so many more things that can go wrong this winter compared to last winter: 1) Solar - there is a non-negligible chance of a rapid increase by mid-2020 2) PDO - it looks like it is heading more Neutral, and maybe legitimately negative, but it also may snap positive. My analogs assumed near neutral, on either side. People see the Blob and think "2013" but US weather really hasn't matched well to 2013 at all since Summer. October has been a bit closer, but I think it is a case of two trains passing each other from opposite directions. In 2013-14, the PDO was warming from years of being in the predominantly negative phase. In 2019-20, it is cooling from years of being in the predominantly positive phase. 3) ENSO structure. Modoki El Nino since September. But Nino 1.2 is losing the cold pool below it, Nino 4 warm pool below it is moving east. 4) NAO. Pretty rare historically to have any streaks <=-0.3 more than four months, less than 2% of all possible outcomes. October is negative. November probably will be too. 5) SOI under -10 in September is like a ~95% El Nino indicator for winter. For what its worth, the new Jamstec (October) does have an El Nino Modoki look continuing in winter, with a cold East. The dry slot from TX to MI, with New England and the West Coast warm is pretty much what I had in my forecast.

All fear the PDO? The JISAO update isn't in for September yet, but the severe cold in the NW and severe warmth in the SE are both showing up in the zones that correlate highest to the PDO for winter. The cold ring by Alaska hasn't been there in a long time but it is trying to form.

The cold pool near Peru is starting to surface so Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 cooled this week. Nino 3.4/4 were down a tiny bit. Against 1951-2010 averages in Nino 3.4, 27.0C is +0.5C, but CPC uses 26.75C, the 1985-2014 average, for Nino 3.4. Either way, Nino 3.4 for October is at borderline El Nino conditions - 27.15C or so, pending the rest of October...but lots of warmth below the surface is set to come up shortly. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.2-0.6 26.5-0.2 29.3 0.6 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 You can see that if we pop up to 27.15C or so in October, it's fairly close to the top 10 warmest Octobers already (27.58C is 10th since 1950). Nino 3.4 for the past three weeks has more or less caught up to 2014-15 at this point, but 2014-15 was much warmer in Nino 3/1.2 and colder in Nino 4. At this time of year, Nino 1.2 tends to lead what the PDO will do - so the very warm Nino 1.2 in 2014 preceded the +2.07 PDO reading for Nov-Apr. 17SEP2014 21.0 0.7 25.2 0.4 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.8 24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5

I went with a fairly snowy cold season for parts of the Plains, West and Northeast this year. Not many areas of the US came in with less than 75% of average snow. For New Mexico, the "average" snowline seems to be 7,000-8,000 feet - areas above that level will be snowier than average. The ocean temperature pattern globally in early October is pretty close to opposite of what the 2016-17 winter ended up, essentially a Modoki El Nino instead of a Modoki La Nina. If it was truly opposite to 2016-17, maybe it'd be severely cold in the Southeast, but I have the cold somewhat to the Northwest of the South. I do think with Atlanta and areas west of it currently 10F above normal in October after a hot September that a lot of nights in the South will be pretty cold as the warm air is replaced by cold/dry air. Longer term, the subsurface heat is draining in Nino 4 to some extent, and the wave of ocean heat is moving East, so you'll see less of a Modoki look as Nino 4 cools and Nino 1.2 warms. The PDO also looks like it is going to go negative for at least a little while which is not great for cold in the Southeast.

Definitely an idealized Modoki El Nino look for the past month, but the warm waters do seem to be pushing east into Nino 3 now. The areal extent of the cold to the east is thinning. You can also see the PDO going negative to some extent as the warm ring moves away from Alaska and the tongue that should be cold east of Japan in a positive PDO, is very warm. 1953-54 had a 23.25C DJF seasonal reading in Nino 1.2 - so I have that in my analogs to incorporate the very cold waters by Peru that will take a bit longer to warm up than Nino 3.

Nice and dry + cold = very cold lows for the rural areas of the high terrain in New Mexico.

My analogs had parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas pretty snowy if you want to see. I included some slides at the end of my forecast about how well I did last year, so you can decide if it is worth paying attention to what I have or not. There is a slide that has snow totals for Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Little Rock and some other towns in the region if you are curious.

https://t.co/1yr0fAbUKK 2019-20 Winter forecast. I went with a Modoki El Nino turning to a more basin-wide event with time based on the subsurface. Snow maps, precip maps, temp maps - they are there. https://t.co/OwLKUbp8ka?amp=1 2018-19 forecast - did some images showing verification at the end. I'm not completely sold on this event being officially designated an El Nino, I think we only get 3-4 months at 27.0C in Nino 3.4, but its close enough honestly.

I'm not sure Modoki stuff follows a cycle like ENSO overall, especially with Nino 4 warming faster than the zones to the east over the last sixty years. I do think it is interesting that these recent El Ninos have built West to East, a lot of historical El Ninos built East to West if that makes sense, so that might be a cycle. This is the stuff I was waiting for to finish my forecast. The trend is for Nino 3.4 to warm up somewhat from September readings, like it was last month - but Nino 4 is forecast to cool while 1.2/3 warm - so the look becomes less of a Modoki if all that verifies.

I've basically finished my winter forecast using the updated analog weighting. Snow maps are a pain in the ass, I ended up looking at something like 40 or 50 towns to try to draw the boundaries correctly. I was hoping the ECMWF plume for Nino 3.4 would be out by now, but it isn't. If it isn't out tomorrow, will probably just post my forecast without it. Here is the subsurface trend for the past few months. The Nino 3.4 zone is completely filled up now with warmth. It does look to me like the warmth is moving East, so the Modoki look right now will probably fade later in winter, I think that is why my analogs are showing a big mid-winter thaw nationally for a month or so.

There are no low-solar El Ninos after a low-solar El Nino for at least the last sixty years, some debatable cases in the 1950s - (1952 and 1953, but I consider 1952-53 to not be an El Nino). So going against it was pretty sensible. I still have this sense that the El Nino trying to form now will still fail somehow. That being said...my analogs last year were 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 - 1976 and 1986 were both followed by El Ninos, and Summer has been fairly close to 1995 nationally. Last time a low solar El Nino followed a low solar El Nino was in the 1910s if you use 50-sunspots or less from July-June, in both El Ninos as the threshold. That would be the 1914-15 winter, when it hit -7F in January with 27.5 inches of snow in Albuquerque at an observation site lower in elevation and south of the current airport. I believe it is the snowiest winter here and across the Southwest generally since the 1890s. The 1913-14 winter actually has a passing resemblance to last year if you lag the timing so that's pretty interesting. The ECMWF plume update for October still isn't up from what I can see. Probably a big change in the forecast. The MJO similarities to 2018, 2012, 1994 even 2009, 2007, 2004 to some extent aren't real bullish for the NE for winter. 1995 had been a strong analog for me, but it is fading away now, the crappier snow winters for the NE are somewhat stronger analogs now, if an El Nino forms. My old analogs had the warmth reaching 140W in the tropical pacific in Nino 3.4, which is where it is now. It will probably continue to 100-120W over time - question is how soon. It's still very cold in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The fade of warmth by Alaska is consistent with the PDO going negative by the way. That warm tongue from Japan to south of Alaska should not be there at all in a positive PDO year. Hard to get cold in the Southeast if that setup remains.

I'm about ready to wave the white flag on a Neutral at this point. My Neutral analogs included three El Ninos anyway, so I just have to re-do my forecast using the new weighting of the six years I like. Still want to see what the October ENSO plume from the ECMWF has. There are no warm-Neutral years in low solar since 1952-53, so I'd bump from 26.5C to 27.0C ish. The US temperature map doesn't even change that much, mostly December impacted, and then generally less blocking and less snow for the NE if I change the weighting. Nino 1.2/3 look like they're getting cold again this on Tropical Tidbits, that may make it to Nino 3.4 before the warmth below Nino 3.4/4 surfaces. Part of why I want to see the European - it did have the warm up in October in Nino 3.4 after all. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 11SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 29.0 0.3 18SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.2-0.6 26.5-0.2 29.3 0.6 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0