raindancewx

The new Jamstec is similarly cold for the US for winter as in the last run. It has really exaggerated the differences in the SSTs from the West Tropical Pacific and the East Tropical Pacific. I'd call it an El Nino. The West also trended much wetter. The temperature, sst and precip maps look a lot like my forecast now, although I don't expect the cold to penetrate as deep into the Southeast. The warm West/New England look strikes me as about right though.

Right is for a -4 to -12 SOI Sept-Nov with a 0 to -1 Oct PDO. Left is El Nino winter + an Oct PDO of 0 to -1.

Just for fun, since it is pretty rare - El Nino. PDO in October of 0.00 to -1.00 on the JISAO index (it was -0.45). https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO El Nino October Nov-Apr 1951 -0.32 -1.02 1963 -0.52 -0.88 1965 -0.36 -0.44 1968 -0.34 -0.81 1977 -0.61 0.50 2004 -0.11 0.47 2006 -0.05 -0.04 Some very cold winters in the Southwest in that mix. 1963-64 is the coldest winter in 120+ years in New Mexico. 1965 is right behind it. 2006 is very cold too. 2004 and 2006 are also extremely wet. If you look at all October PDO values, 1931-2018, that were 0 to -1, November to April PDO values finish between +0.5 and -1.78. There are no strongly positive PDO cases. The years right around -0.45 in October tend to see the PDO stay between -0.5 and 0.0 for Nov-Apr. Overall, 18/24 cases of the PDO between 0 and -1 in Oct saw the PDO stay below average from Nov-Apr after an October value of -1 to 0. The Neutral/Negative PDO + El Nino composite is a cold West composite - we'll have to see what happens.

Nate Mantua sent out the PDO data for October 2019: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO So...lowest PDO value since 2013 in any month. -PDO is strongly correlated to a cold NW/warm SE in winter if it continues. 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 2019-09-01T00:00:00Z 0.41 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01 2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17 2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50 2018** 0.70 0.37 -0.05 0.11 0.11 -0.04 0.11 0.18 0.09 0.26 -0.05 0.52

It's not perfect, especially in the middle period, but people not including 2018-19 as an analog to this winter are a bit nuts to me. Oct/Nov will probably be ~0.2C different in Nino 3.4? Close to a rounding error. I think the pretty similar to last year honestly, just shifted somewhat east - that's the certainly the impression from the Fall. Here is 2018 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11): Here is 2019 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11):

My winter analogs included several years that featured snows in the Southwest around November 20th, way back when I did my winter forecast in early October. I weighted the years 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018. So assumed it was close to 50/50 we'd get snow here around 11/20. Looks promising so far on the models. https://www.scribd.com/document/429712619/Winter-2019-20-Outlook The Raw Snow Data: 2018 6 (Dec 2, Dec 26, Dec 27, Jan 1, Feb 19, Feb 22) 2009 11 (Oct 29, Dec 8, Dec 23, Jan 22, Jan 23, Feb 3, Feb 4, Feb 7, Mar 11, Mar 20, Mar 24) 1995 7 (Dec 17, Dec 18, Dec 31, Jan 1, Feb 1, Feb 2, Mar 6) 1992 13 (Nov 4, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 4, Dec 5, Dec 12, Dec 15, Dec 16, Dec 19, Jan 13, Feb 15, Feb 28, Mar 1) 1983 7 (Nov 19, Nov 26, Dec 25, Jan 14, Jan 16, Mar 18, Apr 26) 1953 9 (Nov 18, Nov 19, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 5, Dec 11, Jan 12, Jan 13, Jan 20) Snow Windows Albuquerque: Nov 18-21 Dec 2-5 Dec 15-19 Dec 25-Jan 1 Jan 12-16 Feb 1-4 Mar 18-20 The SOI support is there too. Over a 10 point drop from 11/8 to 11/10. Should put a big system in the SW US or Mexico around 11/20 12 Nov 2019 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 -5.76 -8.39 11 Nov 2019 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 -5.18 -8.48 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01

With the temperature down to 34F at 6 pm and low dew points, Albuquerque should be up to 11 nights of 32F or less since October 1 on 11/11. Tied with 1991 for fourth most since 1931 (10/1-11/11 lows of 32F or less).

Models had shown Nino 4 cooling. It has a bit. If that continues, a colder December is possible nationally. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9

This is going to verify...in Mexico, and no it isn't relatively common because of the elevation.

In Albuquerque, Nino 3.4 temps / solar conditions / Nino 3.4 temps in the prior winter are pretty predictive for highs in Oct-May. Once October is in you, you can anchor the data to what was observed then too. Last year it was a strong match in all non-March months. This year, I have a decent match for the sun, and ONI (ONI will probably be around 27.1C) and a good match for October. But I don't have a good way of getting ONIp and the sun to work together. But so far, the blend is holding in November. Will be curious to see how it goes.

Latest European run has Nino 4 cooling, Nino 3.4 and 3 warming through November, then cooling, and then Nino 1.2 warming into January before cooling after. It's kind of a "warmth drains East" look. The dashed line tends to verify at the extreme end of the sea surface temperature plume in most months, so I think it's fairly safe that November and December at least see Nino 3.4 above El Nino thresholds. There isn't much warmth below the surface after that though, so some cooling is likely. This event probably won't count as an El Nino by CPC, but it probably is going to count by the Jamstec definition (165E-140W) definition. By my older thresholds (1951-2010), it will probably count, since 26.5C is the average for me I use for Oct-Feb anomalies, while CPC is higher in Fall. The SOI response, right around -8 for the past 90-days, is also consistent with a weak El Nino Modoki setup.

Don't look now, but with the MJO different, 2013 now once again looks completely different to 2019 in November. It doesn't look like 2018 or 2014 either. Passing resemblance to 1951, 1967, 2012 though.

This event may not last too much longer. I think October will eventually be warmed up on the CPC data to 27.3C or so. After that, Nov-Dec look El Nino warm, safely. Jan/Feb/Mar still kind of iffy. Heat is only down to 100m. I'd say we are about due for a) a Strong La Nina and b) a flat Neutral (26.5C) - will be interesting what happens if the warmth doesn't get replenished. NOAA PDO crashed in October. Will be curious to see the JISAO/Mantua value for October. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201907 0.42 201908 -0.16 201909 0.03 201910 -0.81

I don't "expect" my winter analogs to work in the neighboring seasons, but I do like to see relatively close matches to make sure I am on the right track. I had the cold West idea for October in the winter analogs (the blend is from 10/1, although I didn't release it until 10/10), with the cold shifting East for November. Not bad. The pattern was more amplified than my analogs, probably in part because the PDO went more negative than I had it. I'll never understand why New Mexico never shows up cold on these maps. Albuquerque was 2.7F below the 1951-2010 average high in October 2019 (68.3F v. 71.0F).

MJO looks about two weeks faster to reach phase six in November than last year. Will be very interesting to see if it stalls in Phase 1 again, like in October. That would probably warm up the South and make the West / Plains frigid again, although shifted a bit east of the late October outbreak.

This event does look a lot colder than last by SSTs, it's kind of interesting that the SOI response has been better so far. That may just have to do with how cold it is in Nino 1.2 relative to Nino 4. That 29.5C v. 20.2C spread in October has got to be a record. Nino 4 is literally almost as warm as October in the Super Nino of 2015-16, while Nino 1.2 is literally almost as cold as in October 2017-18. The 2017-18 temperatures in Nino 1.2 reached levels that hadn't been seen since 1980 in some months.

Nino 4 was 29.5C in October (4th warmest since 1950). Observed record warmth is 29.84C in Nino 4 in October. 1969 29.32 1982 29.44 1987 29.58 1991 29.47 1994 29.45 1997 29.34 2002 29.41 2004 29.46 2006 29.45 2009 29.68 2015 29.84 2018 29.71 Those are your Nino 4 years that hit at least 29.3C in October. Once you get above 29.5C or so, none of the years feature a cold December in the East, the coldest above 29.5C is 2009, and it is average, despite strong counter signals to Nino 4. The map last year looked like a composite of the 29.3C+ Decembers prior to it. Nino 4 is cooler than 2018 though - and it may cool a bit more relative to 2018 by December, so I do think December will be slightly cooler than last year in the East. MJO should get to phases 6-7-8-1 later in November. I'd imagine a pretty big warm up is coming with it to prevent overall November numbers from getting too out of control cold. All of those phases are warm in the South overall in OND. The subtropical jet is waking up, and the Indian Ocean has been alight with convection recently, both tend to precede warm ups.

CPC has ONI at +0.1 for ASO. They revised September warmer in the raw data. October came in +0.44C against their baseline. Against 1951-2010 means, it would be +0.69C, and it will probably be revised warmer next month anyway. Six weeks above 27.0C is an El Nino to me at this time of year. The 27.19C for October is still warmer than October 2014, even though the weeklies implied 27.3C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 For the SOI stuff, you can look at the BOM data base and see if it has merit yourself. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Blizzard of 1993 was around 3/13 right? That's 31+28+13 days into 1993, i.e. 72 days. Here is the SOI in late Feb / early Mar 1993: 1993 61 1015.53 1008.30 14.95 1993 62 1013.67 1009.25 1.51 1993 63 1010.83 1008.50 -8.55 1993 64 1010.61 1008.80 -10.99 That 20+ point drop is about 10-days ahead of the blizzard. The extremely powerful storm this past March had a lesser drop, but it was there: 2019 60 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 2019 61 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 2019 62 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 This is the Perfect Storm time frame - (365 = Dec 31, -31 for Dec, -30 for Nov, -3 for Oct, -10 for the SOI lead time, i.e. 365-74 = 291?) 1991 290 1011.85 1012.15 -20.57 1991 291 1011.32 1011.90 -22.34 1991 292 1008.97 1011.55 -35.24 The system (closed low last I looked) coming into the SW this week ties in with the most recent drop. I generally look for a big storm over the SW in 10-days after a big SOI crash occurs in a short period (1-2 days) in El Ninos. But in non-El Ninos it is less reliable for the SW, and the reliability does seem peak from mid-Nov to mid-Apr, it has no use in Summer. 29 Oct 2019 1011.22 1010.05 -11.09 -4.59 -6.94 28 Oct 2019 1011.75 1010.10 -8.00 -4.19 -6.79 27 Oct 2019 1012.01 1008.90 1.42 -3.98 -6.5

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.6 Those 20 pt, single day SOI drops are trouble historically. Need to watch for a big time storm mid-month.

I'm aware that October 1948 is nothing like October 2019. Worth noting, the 135-165W, 30-60N zone was not warm in October like it now. It developed later. That's why that area of warmth is interesting to me, since it is west of 2013 - when it exists in 1948-49, even with the PDO, AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, and global SSTs way different, it still went to the pattern observed in October. The Oct 2019/Dec-Feb 1948-49 pattern only exists when that warmth is pronounced in the zone I listed. In 2013-14, you had more success pushing the heat out of the SE US compared to this year. The magnitude of the cold/heat in 2013 is also not really comparable if you use the same scale. A lot of states in the West reported their coldest ever October in 2013, with a lot of states in the South reporting top five hottest ever for October. I'm not trying to rain on parades, but I am seeing a lot of what happened last year, when people kept saying "2002" was similar to Fall, even though the October heat in the East and cold push were both more severe than in 2002.

QBO is still positive in October: +7.27 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data My analog blend has it at slightly below 0 for Dec-Feb, -6.77 or so. That's probably about right. Last year, the QBO tracked pretty similarly to 1994-95. No reason to expect a radical break from 1995 at this point. Should cross into negative territory on the monthly data in December or January. Something like 0-6 in Nov, -2 to +2 in Dec, -6 to 0 in Jan, -10 to -2 in Feb. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.9 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.4 -18.08 -9.86 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 -999 -999

One thing that concerns me this winter is that record cold in the orientation that occurred in October 2019 has occurred with the same blotch of warm waters in the Pacific in previous winters. I'm defining this blob as 150-180W, 30-60N, as opposed to 2013-14, which was 135-165W, 30-60N. See the heat shooting up to Ohio with the cold over Montana and the whole west cold? Look at this. 30-60N, 150-180W right? Both cases. Both periods, record cord in the West (cooler ring by Western North America around the warmth, with cold south of the equator too.) That 2013-14 setup was east of this year, and so the cold was centered east. The distance from where the cold is centered and where the blobs are centered is about 15-20 degrees E-W. So it makes sense that the blob in 2013-14 would feature severe cold in the Lakes, while the current one has focused more on Montana and Wyoming. This all assumes these warm patches matter, and that if they do, the current one will persist.

Looks like the European was caught with its pants down in Nino 4 this month. Whole plume for Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 will likely shift up a bit this month. Nino 3.4 is likely about 27.3C for October - the Nino zone data for October will arrive this week. A 27.3C October is +0.55C on the CPC standard, but +0.8C against 1951-2010. CPC tends to "adjust" data for a month or two after it is in. Even so, ONI for Aug-Oct should be 26.97C or so, and the CPC base for that period is 26.82C, so it's back to +0.15C. The 1951-2010 average is 26.56C - so +0.42C - nearly back to El Nino already, more consistent with the SOI, which is also nearly El Nino for Aug-Oct (-7.03 for Aug-Oct).

Probably (Definitely?) won't get a 968 mb low out of it this time, but October was wetter than September again in Albuquerque. That has always preceded measurable precipitation in October back to 1931 (37/37 cases), including last year. Odds are always much better for a big wet March when October is wetter than September.

We've pulled ahead of the late/fake El Ninos now too. October looks nothing like 2012 for instance. Weaker than last year. North Pacific still neutral for the PDO zone. That cold water by Peru in October tends to rot away the warmth right along the coast of West Canada, as we've seen. Also, sunspots for the year ending October are down to 4.2 - still lower than the comparable time in the last cycle (year ending Oct 2008). The 12-month low last cycle was 2.2. Whether we go lower than that or not, I'd say its 50/50 we hit the 12-month low point of this cycle in the next six months.