raindancewx

Feb-Apr global SSTs kind of look like a blend of Feb-Apr 1968, 2006, 2014, 2015. Will be interesting to see if that holds up going into Summer. 1968 & 2014 took a while to develop into El Ninos. You have a warm Pacific, similar Atlantic, similar Indian, years after warm/dry Western winters. Not great for solar, so maybe I could blend in 1934 and 1996 too.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

My Spring forecast is looking pretty good for my area, fairy normal March, then very hot/dry Apr-May. We may have multiple days in the low 90s through Wednesday here - which is pretty early (5/3/1947 is earliest 90F reading on record here). May is a bizarre month here anyway, its very nice when its colder than normal, but basically Summer if its hotter than normal since the average May high is 80F. We had near record cold in May 2015, and May 2014-2017 were already fairly cold here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 April was -0.46C against the 30-year base period. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Nice and cool today but I suspect we'll hit 90F here much earlier than last year. Historically super dry Nov-Apr periods in the SW are followed by major rains in June, and the Canadian has that kind of look for June, but we've had four ~cold Mays in a row here, its due to flip.

The Canadian has a weak El Nino forming mid-summer.

Its probably soft hail or graupel. The Canadian has a super torch for May nationally, trended much warmer from its last update.

The data I've seen implies that above a certain elevation level snow doesn't really change that much until you get into stronger ENSO conditions in the north of NM. For valleys and southern areas, even the mountains in the Center/South, La Nina is pretty dry, the precip just evaporates before hitting the ground. Red River has weather data almost every day from 1906-2014, 8600 feet up, and the overall effect of ENSO on Jul-Jun snow was around 10 inches/year. With ENSO, out here it works best when incorporating solar activity. March is unbelievable here with sufficiently high solar activity in El Nino years, but not so much in other El Ninos. That said, low solar+El Nino+El Nino after La Nina is the best combo for a severe winter here. The NW is similar, just replace El Nino with La Nina. Look at amazing 2016-17 or the other La Ninas are in the NW after big El Ninos. We had 22 inches of snow here from 3/22-4/8 in 1973, in an El Nino (high solar) after a La Nina. Neutral with low solar is pretty crazy down here, usually incredible cold shots for the time of year. March 29 is actually the second most common day to get a big snow event in Albuquerque based on 1931-2017, which always amuses me given the average high is 65F or something by then.

Remember the crazy late April and mid-May storms last year?

Last year (warm-Neutral + low solar) was amazing around here - Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4

Pending this next little system, I believe we've had only 2 days here (Albuquerque) with over 0.10" precipitation since Oct 1. Very rare here, we're not Yuma, tied with three other years for fewest >0.1" days since 1892.

My view has always been that surface conditions (weather) lags by about 6-weeks from the ocean changes. So I'd say we transition to Neutral through June, and then we either stay Neutral or transition to El Nino. The Nina is dead on the weeklies now. I just started a new job, so I can't post the weeklies early in the morning like I was before, if someone else wants to do it. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 Nino 1.2 is pretty impressive for April so far, if it beats 2013, coldest since the mid-1990s. Favors a cold Washington state, and also dryness in Arizona for May pretty strongly.

I tried to convince you in February, that SOI drop to -7.7 should never happen in a healthy La Nina. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of an El Nino yet, but you did have a similar massive drop in March 1997 when the system began transitioning away from the near-Nina conditions to the big El Nino. I have certain organic indicators for ENSO, since the SW is most sensitive to it, and they were all indicating fairly rapid collapse in Feb/Mar. I do wonder when the next East-based El Nino will come - its been ages now.

We were 40F or so on Friday afternoon, I'd call it a Blue Norther level cold front. Wind was fierce and unrelenting. Midnight high of 54F though.

I'll go on record and say that I think it will be a Modoki El Nino. Nino 1.2 is still pretty cold. I was looking at years that went from a "La Nina look" by cold water location/structure, like last winter to an El Nino Modoki, its an interesting list of years. Last year, you had an earlier transition from La Nina to near-El Nino, and it was a Modoki La Nina initially. So you get different analogs. The Eastern Atlantic & solar conditions need to be factored in for the coming patterns, both are contributing less energy to the system than in a while. Without looking at the maps, I think 1926, 1951, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014 all have some similarities. The El Ninos following an El Nino are probably the worst matches conceptually: 1940, 1941, 1958, 1977, 1987, 2015. Big El Ninos probably not a good match either: 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2015. Tentatively like 1951 (x2), 1963, 1968 (x2), 1976 (x2), 1986 (x2), 1997, 2006 (x2), 2009 (x2), 2014. On the JAMSTEC classification, 1968-69 and 2009-10 are the most extreme El Nino Modoki events, so have to see if that happens.

MJO is active once again, it is currently in phase 7 and should be in phase 2 by mid-April. Have to watch for cold in the SW and severe weather in the Plains and mid-south.

Expecting trace to 0.20" here tomorrow with the storm coming through. If we get over 0.13" on 3/27, this becomes the wettest March since 2010 for Albuquerque. If we get over 0.31" tomorrow, wettest March since 2007 (!)

The models have been hinting at a decent to historic precipitation event for NM next week for about 36-hours now. Hope it verifies! Been enjoying this March, its 3:20 pm on 3/21 and have yet to hit 70F officially at the long-term observation site for the city. Last year it happened on 2/10. Also, we've had seven lows of 32F or less this month, that hasn't happened since 2012. The SOI dropped over 40 points a few days ago, from +36 to -8, so I think some kind of big system coming through next week makes sense. The 3/1-3/21 SOI is still +6.4, so its been exceptionally volatile this month, readings of -8.4 to +35.9. So far (1/1-3/20) 2018 is 2.6F colder than last year.

The SOI popped to +35.9 in the most recent reading, and it looks very strongly positive to me over the next week to ten days. Here is a look at what that does to April historically - its a strong warm signal for TX, a strong cold signal for the coastal NW, and a strong wet signal for the western Dakotas, but a strong dry signal for the NM/TX/MX border areas, and the Virginia mountains. SOI is currently +8.41 for March 1-17 (it was -7.7 in February)

For the first 1/5 of 2018, ABQ is running 1.6F colder than last year, with the lows in running almost 3F colder. March looks like it has a real chance of finishing 3-8F colder than last year here. High from 3/9 to 3/15 this year is 11F colder than last year. The 3/9-3/22 period had an average high of 76.5F in 2017, won't be anywhere near that in 2018. Its been years since we've gone so deep into the year without a 70F reading here, only recent year to make it longer is 2010, when it took until 3/29. Our first, official 70F day is probably 3/22 or later. May finish March without hitting 75F...it hit 75F last year on February 10th. First 75F reading is usually around 3/26, so its not unusual that we haven't hit that level yet, but it doesn't look like it will happen in the next week either. The blend of 1st 75F reading as a date and February SOI reading is a strong indicator for the average March high, so will be interesting to see when we do hit 75F, if it is in April or March.

Giant line of precipitation formed...north, south, and west of me. Really hope we get something with this system. Haven't had a wet March in the city since 2007.

Fairly happy with how my winter outlook turned out for this region of the US, and really most of the US besides the interior West - for anyone who read it in mid-October.

Record dry soundings here today (dewpoint: -15F right now at 8:40 pm, 43F air temp). I'm rooting for the low tomorrow morning to get to 22F. That would be the coldest March reading in the city since 2008. If we get to 16F, that's the coldest March reading in the city since 2002. The 1931-2017 record for March is +8F. If we had snow on the ground with this airmass I think we've have a shot at it, but without the snow, can't see it dropping below 15F in any scenario. I'd assuming 19F, +/-4F. Models can't seem to decide if the MJO keeps going (BOM), reverses back into phase two (Euro), or just dies. Consensus might be slow movement in/around phase 2/3 for another 3-5 days? The Euro has something like the light-blue line, BOM the red line. Given how cold it was today (28F low, 50F high) here wouldn't be surprised if it was back into phase 2 already.

We have yet to hit 70F down here, and are now up to 73 frosts through 3/2 (probably won't get one today). It was 75F on 2/10 and then 70F on 2/11 last year, so this is more typical, with the first 70F reading of the year usually around 3/8. The European has been trying to go to what my analogs had for March: a wet period mid-month, sandwiched between two dry periods (3/1-3/6 and 3/21-3/31). Theoretically, it should also be a lot colder than last March, as Nino 1.2 is colder than last year, and there is some blocking, with we've seen drier nights year/year each month since December. Feb SOI is a good indicator on highs in March, as is first 70F day. If/when we get decent precip in March...I think we're done for significant precipitation down here until June, when the data suggests the monsoon develops early and fierce. Amarillo has had exactly 0.01 inches of rain for the Oct 14-March 2 period. It seems like SOME kind of pattern is WAY overdue that can bring that area some precipitation. I'm not sure i believe an area of the US outside maybe Yuma is capable of getting that little rain for much more than a six month period.

Maybe this event gets eaten away from the East? I'd assumed the warmth would come to Nino 1.2 last, but its probably going to be warmer than average in March after the cold February. Nino 1.2 was 23.32C in January (-0.9C v. 1951-2000), probably ~25.10C (-0.6C v. 1951-2000) in February, but the trend is up, and fast, so maybe 26.5C in March (+0.4C v. 1951-2000)?