raindancewx

Can't wait to see what the Canadian has for March on 2/28. The CFS seems to be trying really hard to combine low-solar La Nina conditions with the big -SOI drop (low-solar El Nino). I made this after last March for future reference -

The MJO forecast site hasn't updated but BOM data is through 2/20 now, and it looks like the European forecast on 2/19 underestimated the magnitude of the MJO against. It was still in phase 8 on 2/20. Also, the big SOI reversal has started, BOM had a +14.65 reading for 2/22. The Feb 1-22 value is now up to -14.5. The monthly value will be anywhere from -8 to -16 if values were to be in the -16 to +16 range for the rest of the month. I do think the next six days are mostly positive, so I think the real value is probably (~90%) -8 to -12 at this point, outside chance of -7 or -13, if you get one or two incredible high/low reading in the next six, say a +35 or a random -10 to offset the mostly positive look. If we end up with only slightly positive values, <1.4, this is a 20-point drop from January, something that has happened only 14-times since 1931.

The CFS still has a cold West, warm NE kind of look for March. I think its struggling with the SOI crash (still -15.9 Feb 1-21) with the La Nina base state. But, I was able to roughly re-produce what it shows, with the caveat that it is no where near low enough on the SOI in the blend. I'm sure it will change its mind too. It had Albuquerque +9F for February on 1/31, which looks pretty bad now, we'll probably be +3F to +5F, a lot closer to the Canadian's +6F for February. It hasn't rained meaningfully in Amarillo in like four+ months now, so that seems like a good idea for an area of heat/dryness if the ridge over the SE this month goes West.

After scoring local conditions for DJF (estimating Feb), looking at Feb Nino 1.2, Feb Nino 3.4, Solar Conditions, and converting the extended SST data in Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 that goes back to 1870 to ERSST V.5 temperatures for 1931-1949, incorporating the ongoing February SOI crash, the MJO, and years after major hurricanes hit TX...I ended up with this - This is probably a better blend overall than above, as its close on local conditions too, and solar conditions, since 1933-34, and 1980-81 are included. Four years when TX was hit by a major hurricane show up among the top-20 matches to this winter here (roughly double the frequency of the poorer analogs). DJF just means its February 1934 conditions, but the winter started in 1933, and the major hurricane was in 1933. DJF? is my assessment of whether the winter highs/precip matched 2017-18 well overall. 1933-34 is overall, the second best match since 1931-32. I generally lower/raise March precipitation estimates for ABQ by solar activity, since every 100-sunspots here accounts for about 0.11" in March. I did that here too (under March column), but since my SOI blend isn't nearly low enough, it offsets the solar loss and then some.

MJO entered phase 8 on 2/19. The big key for March is whether it returns to meaningless amplitude today (2/20), or if it transitions to phase one today at increasing amplitude. The European has entry to phase 2 on 2/23, before the wave finally dies on 2/28. I'm hoping it slows down at high amplitude one more time. NM snow pack has slowly recovered, but still well below average. The very cold temperatures today do help for sure (39F at 3 pm). The February SOI crash remains massive: Feb 1-20 is at -16.5. For the life of me, its nearly impossible to come up with February Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 readings as cold as February 2018 will be, that have a big negative SOI crash. Joe Bastardi likes February 1962, but the SOI & Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 regions are all going to be lower values than 1962. The blends I can come up with that are relatively close on all three indexes all show relatively opposite patterns to what the CFS has, although it is backing off on heat in the West. Something like this is the simplest blend I could think of that's close on the SOI, Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 readings I expect February 2018. Big -SOI readings in February do tend to warm up the NW/N. Plains in March, so the blend has most of the West warm, not cold, like the CFS shows. DJF FSOI F 1.2 F 3.4 1970 15.5 24.42 25.18 1980 -4.2 24.93 26.11 1985 -12.1 26.00 26.05 2004 -29.5 25.16 27.11 Mean -7.58 25.13 26.11 2017 -11.00 25.10 25.90 Congratulations to the Northeast! Philadelphia is in the 70s today. Yet to happen here.

Rained in Amarillo!

This event ended up delivering largely as I'd hoped, the snow pack numbers improved for all areas of NM compared to yesterday. The city got 0.44", which brings us to 0.47" for the winter. Easily our biggest precipitation event since October. Even Sandia Peak, right next to the city got 8 inches from the event, as it was <50F when most of the precipitation fell in Albuquerque. They have a 20 inch base now.

The Amarillo dry streak is still ongoing from Oct 13 I believe. No rain. No snow. Where I am, it looks like we've had maybe 0.03" to 0.05" with the rains today, but the dew points were 14-16 until around 5 pm, and only have reached the 30s/40s in the last 90 minutes or so. So no official accumulation at the airport....just trace (Edit: Now 0.01" as of 7:50 pm) Phoenix, Flagstaff, and Tuscon all got some real measurable precipitation out of this event. Flagstaff has corrected up a fair bit toward normal snow since mid-January, looks like they are at 15 inches of snow for the season now (they were at 0 through mid-January)

The European for the first time has the MJO wave reaching Phase 2 around Feb 20, after entering Phase 1 around Feb 17. It seems to be slowly backing off the idea of massive retrogression towards phase 6 before the wave loses amplitude in 8-1-2. I drew in red what I think will happen given that the Euro keeps forecasting the end of the MJO wave too quickly - Next two-three days are really key for timing the wave, we'll know if its going to retrograde or not. The retrogrades its seen so far have ended up just being slower movement towards phase 8.

Ridiculous warmth for February on the European to near average for March? Wetter too. The March look for temperature anomalies is pretty close to what I put in my Spring Outlook (https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD), although the European is using a more modern average, so my anomalies are higher.

For the setup next week, I do think its real. The February SOI peaks is a very strong precipitation indicator in February/March out here, and its still -19 or -20 for February through the 10th. For 1932-2017, I know the odds of staying under 0.11 inches of precipitation in Albuquerque for five months in a row are long - like 300:1 long. Since we haven't had anything over 0.10" yet...for Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, you gotta figure its coming soon. We've never gone over six months in a row where each month is <0.11".

https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD I put out a Spring Outlook if anyone is curious. It incorporates a wide variety of initial conditions for NDJ, including local precipitation, high temperatures, solar and oceanic conditions, and the MJO. Focus is on NM, but I have national maps with expected threats by month. General idea is its pretty warm nationally in Spring, but the West does get wetter relative to winter.

This is mostly from the subtropical jet if it verifies, so would be rain in most areas. But...its a start. Would be snow in the mountains of the North. I think the window for precipitation will remain open into March for us, before shutting abruptly again in April, but whether its February or March that is super wet remains to be seen. I looked for ABQ specifically the other day, the SOI drops in February are actually correlated more to temperatures than precipitation, so the crash may be a better pattern for the statewide precipitation than locally. Low SOI readings have correlations to February / March precipitation approaching 0.7 over a 60-year period in the SW...so I kind of believe it at this point. The Euro solution is only seven days out. The January SST configuration looks like some wet March years here, and what I expect for February is kind of a blend of 1968, 1975, 1981, 1985 at this point. There is no January since 1981 with a January as cold as 2018 in Nino 1.2, so I'm kind of relying on some older years. Worth noting that Jan 1968 & 1981 were both after major-hurricane landfalls in Texas.

Based on frequency of very high SOI values in February, and the already-in crash for Feb 1-5 (-20.3 !!), odds of the SOI crashing negative this month are up to 66% or so. For the SOI to reach 0 for February given the SOI to date, you need the SOI to be +4.4 or higher the rest of the month, which isn't super common. So, a crash of 9 or more from January is favored 2:1 right now. Its starting to look like we enter a somewhat stormy period, which makes sense. SOI crashes in February favor storminess at up to 0.7 correlations in the SW - although not sure if NOAA is using r-squared or just r.

Looking back at last year, we did pretty well for snow once the MJO reached the phase 2/3 transition around 2/28. For the high amplitude portion of the ongoing MJO wave, the cycles have been +49 to +55 days for phases 3,4,5,6,7 repeating, with a tendency toward the longer part of the cycle lately. Last year the MJO wave got to phase 2 on 1/21 and then 2/20 (+30 days), and then entered phase 3 on 1/26 before returning 2/28 (+33 days). Given the +55 days cycle lately, the MJO should reach phase 8 around February 14th, sooner if the Euro is wrong about the slight retrogression towards phase 6 for a day or two. Phase one is then around Feb 22nd. Phase one is our strongest wet phase in February. We entered phase three with current wave on 11/26 and then 1/14, so unless the wave dies or increases massively, its probably week one or week two of March. Phase 3 Entrance: Nov 26/Jan 14 (+49) Phase 4 Entrance: Nov 29/Jan 17 (+49) Phase 5 Entrance: Dec 1 /Jan 22 (+52) Phase 6 Entrance: Dec 5 /Jan 27 (+53) Phase 7 Entrance: Dec 8 /Feb 1 (+55) Phase 8 Entrance: Dec 20/ Feb 14 (+/-2 days?) Euro has 2/15 but its been underestimating the MJO amplitude for the last week. Real question at this point is when the wave dies. If it returns to the warm phases coherently in late March, the East will roast again.

Looking back at the Dec-Jan in the US since 1930 after a major hurricane hit Texas, would say 1980-81 is the closest. That year was a hot winter here, then it was wet in March. Dec-Jan 1932, 1941, 1988, 1961, 1967 are all too cold in the West, off in the East too after a major hurricane hit Texas. 1957/1933/1999 are generally too warm everywhere after a major hurricane hits TX. 1942/1970 have other issues. 1983 is too cold everywhere. That leaves 1980-81, which is like an over-amplified version of this year. The 1980-81 Dec-Jan period had a warm Northern plains, warm West, cold East Coast, cold S. TX, cold South. That's the correct pattern. It doesn't work at all for SSTs in the tropics, but 1980 (x3), 1983 (x2), 1999 (x1), 2002 (x2), 2014 (x1), 2016 (x1) produces the right kind of look for Dec-Jan nationally. A look that is correct for SSTs and Dec-Jan would be 1944 (x1), 1977 (x1), 1980 (x2), 1983 (x3), 1999 (x1), 2002 (x3), 2005 (x4), 2010 (x2). Not many areas of the US more than 3F below 1951-2010 average for high temperatures. The blend of the two maps would be around an ~85% match nationally I think.

The Canadian has the mother of all Western torches for February, particularly for Arizona and parts of Texas. I don't think the magnitude is right, but that's not too dissimilar spatially from what I expect for February. I'd be +6F on the map below, v. the +9F the CFS has.

Somewhat cold winter for the East so far against 1981-2010, but S. TX is the current winner by anomalies. My outlook was against 1951-2010 mean highs, which are somewhat colder, so I think a lot of areas in the NE will actually w/in 1F against 1951-2010 highs for Dec-Jan. Had the Dakotas warm. Misses are the dryness in the Midwest and the heat in the West so far. I think against 1951-2010, the departures look something like this -

The SOI spike from -2.6 in December to +10.0 or so in January is fairly rare. If you use SOI analogs that are +/-4 for each month only similar winters are: 1934-35, 1936-37, 1985-86, 2005-06, 2013-14 Not exactly cold here, but only +2F in February, and then a normal March. Possibility of heavy rain and/or snow in Feb/Mar, and then May/Jun.

My Spring analogs have a February look that is like a less extreme version of November...but I think something like this is more likely given where the MJO is - These are my preliminary Spring analogs. The MJO will be in phase 6-7 at the start of February looks like, so the map probably looks like the second map for the East in February, but looks more like the first map after Feb 5 or Feb 10, maybe through early March. The Spring analogs are a blend of MJO expectations, Ninas that were coldest east of 120W in NDJ, low-solar, and rare conditions locally (super dry since Oct 1, warm in Nov-Dec, etc).

My dream MJO scenario at this point is the red path. Would be pretty shocked at this point if we got the yellow path. I'm not a huge fan of 2006 as an analog for January on the MJO or for the subsurface, but if we migrate it at this amplitude, and the warmth stays in the subsurface below the Nina, we're going to do some major Nina damage too. The MJO went through phase 3-4-5-6-7 in Jan 2006, similar to this year, which is 2-3-4-5-6 in January. Less anomalous subsurface heat/cold v. 2006

It is amazing how non-canonical this La Nina is to date. I know since the 23rd, the cold anomalies in the East have burned off more, I checked Philly, they're back to -1.5F for January, with some days coming near 60F by the end of the month. I'm down to +2.5F or so for January, as the nights have been pretty cold with less than 0.1" of precipitation September 30th. My winter outlook is doing pretty well for Western precip, I had the Northern Rockies slightly wet and a small area of wetness near Vegas/Los Angeles, which may verify, they're average so far from the one big storm earlier in January. Had the Midwest wet...yet to verify. Everyone else dry. Had the East +0 to +2F for winter against 1951-2010, which doesn't look terrible given the current thaw, I think Philly is -1.4F winter to date against 1981-2010, assuming its closer to -1F or less against 1951-2010. I threw 1932-33 in on the chance Agung erupted as a VEI 5, since 1932-33 was a volcanic winter, but it made my outlook for the West 2-3F too cold everywhere. Texas, Arkansas and Maine the only places nationally that are cold AND wetter than normal to date. Dakotas and Northern California were the winners last year.

Looking highly likely at this point that Albuquerque finishes November-January with 0.03" precipitation, the lowest figure for that period 1931-32 to now. Been working on a Spring outlook (will link it here in two-three weeks when all the data is in), and it is looking pretty warm/dry here for most of Spring. 1) When Nov-Jan is dry here, following May is almost always dry (9/10 driest Nov-Jan followed by a dry May, in all other years, 38% shot at a wet May). 2) We've had two wet Aprils in a row, in ten other instances of that happening (or close calls), only one of the following Aprils was wet. 3) Dry Nov-Jan periods do heavily favor a wet June, an inch of rain in June or more is 5x more likely after a dry Nov-Jan here. I have other methods for predicting precipitation that like June too. June is a strong indicator of the following winter here, you can virtually (94%) rule out a cold winter here if June is >=92F for the high. Wet Junes (>=0.6") are under 92F 97% of the time here. The MJO implies we have a shot at some major precipitation in February or March, as do some of my precipitation and temperature replication techniques - after that, I think we get almost jack until June. The CFS seems to be trying to move toward a wet February and/or March in the SW? Also, the Monsoon is (weakly) linked to three factors here - annualized sunspots, precipitation Nov-Apr before Summer, PDO values Nov-Apr before Summer. The ideal Monsoon years, like 2006, tend to have a low, low, positive blend on the three factors. Pending any sudden PDO or precipitation changes, this kind of looks like a strong Monsoon year, at least conceptually. For now, a blend of 1934, 1934, 1943, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2010 looks about right. Last year the PDO was more favorable, but we had a lot of precipitation in Nov-Apr before Summer. On balance, this year looks better.

February looks like a wild month to me - couldn't find any years where the MJO goes (roughly) through phase 2-6 in January at high amplitude and then stays very active through February, which looks possible. 1978 & 1990 are better analogs in Feb than now if the amplitude stays high. Since the 70s the high amplitude January years crash and the low amplitude January years tend to see increased magnitude in February.

I was checking some of the conditions in the East, looks like Philly is now within 2F or normal month to date with the 23rd included, with some warm days ahead yet and the West's heat will gradually shrink as well. I had the East warm in January and the West cold in January - that looks pretty bad for actual January, but its probably just going to be two weeks early in the end. Although the East will probably be mostly within 2F or normal by the end of the month. Jacksonville is within 3.5F of their normal, when the 23rd is included. My lows are running 2.5F lower than last year to date, with the dryness more than offsetting the somewhat warmer highs (+2.3F) so far.