raindancewx

Here is a look at the relationship between the Atlantic in July (much colder than last year) and US tendencies in the following December. Given the AMO was +0.3 in July 2017 but may be -0.05 to +0.05 this July, this imprint should exist strongly barring a big time AMO warm up. The valleys of California should be much colder, with the SW by NM/AZ/MX much wetter. The East, save Maine, is favored warmer in December. The Atlantic's cold flip from last year seems to be gaining, not weakening by the way.

If you get the time to see something nuts, we had two lines of thundershowers moving in different directions (N->S and W->E) today feed off one another and kind of explode over the Rio Grande Valley today. It's been raining where I am for close to four hours. After the rains yesterday, we only hit 87F today. Down to 63F when it rained. I was inside tonight and the hail made it through the door somehow into the house. Officially the city has had (at least) five days with 0.10" or more rain this July - which is starting to get into rarer territory. Tends to favor/indicate heavy snowfall in December here. So far, 3.5+ inches of rain here since June 1 (average is 2 inches).

I think the recent positive SOI is temporarily (hopefully) interfering with the development of the Nino at the moment. That said, July does look like a (weaker) blend of 1965, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, and the recent patches of cool in the US are similar to the blend of those years for July.

Big, widespread heavy rains today with lots of thunder. Dropped to 64F briefly with the rains around 8 pm here. City is at 1.52" now for the month, after 1.40" in June. Pretty solid start. My May 10 Summer forecast for the city had a high of 92.1F and 1.55" rain, we're at 92.6F and 1.52" currently, so going to be damn close unless we get enormous amounts of rain the next five days.

Looks a bit like 2006 to me (big blob near the surface in late July).

I did a bunch of research last year on Modoki structure, and basically October is a pretty good indicator for the winter. The cool thing though is the model runs that come on Aug 1 should be a good indicator themselves for October - so I think we'll have a decent idea of how things will play out shortly. In the meantime, some very warm water is coming up by 120W, and the waters are starting to cover the entire 3.4 zone. The SOI has also been negative again after a fairly prolonged spike.

I'd look for a wetter August in Denver/Cheyenne v. last year if Nino 1.2 continues to warm up...or at least doesn't crash like it did last year.

Re-warming this week on the weeklies. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 18JUL2018 21.3-0.3 26.1 0.6 27.6 0.4 29.1 0.3 Nino 1.2 still stubbornly cold. Worth noting - last year this about the time Nino 1.2 crashed like crazy. 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 A somewhat warmer Nino 1.2 in August (say -0.1 instead of -0.5?) would favor (weakly) a colder interior West and NE in August. Also favors dryness in the SE and wetness in the northern Rockies, especially Wyoming.

97F here at 8 pm. In late July. Pretty impressive.

As of July 21, ice extent is +0.5 million square km above last year. Math for the win.

It is interesting looking at what the CFS shows v. what the Canadian shows for DJF. The warm-tongue in the PDO zone exists on both models, which is not consistent with a positive PDO, despite the warm ring around Alaska/Canada. Huge difference though in where the El Nino is centered - 120W or 140W, and whether the Atlantic stays relatively cold or not. Neutral PDO or even somewhat negative PDO with an El Nino would be an interesting winter. You can see where the warm tongue is above v. on the schematic from JISAO below.

We keep hitting 98F here, close, but no cigar for that elusive, non-June 100F reading. The GFS has been showing stupid amounts of rain for the RGV, the NAM has the rains on the east slopes of the Sandias and Manzano mountains which makes more sense to me. Either way, looking forward to temperatures closer to 90F again.

Larry Cosgrove was talking about flat neutral gradually warming to an El Nino in Fall, that looks pretty decent now. I thought we'd be a bit warmer by now, +0.5C, I think July will be +0.2C or +0.3C in Nino 3.4. Without looking, a blend of 2006 (x2), 2009 (x4), 2012 (x3), 2014 (x1) might be a decent easy idea for the winter in terms of the sun and the oceans. I think a much weaker version of 2009-10 (in terms of OLR/Modoki setup) with low solar activity is a decent bet.

The cooling map of SSTs isn't a super dramatic move away from El Nino, since the water temperatures in Nino 1.2 are still cooling this time of year, Nino 3.4 should be 27.5C this time of year, v. 28C a month ago going by the weeklies.

Do you have the same concentration of warmest days right around the solstice up there? It's very rare for temperatures to top 100F here outside the June 22-29 week here. Something like half of all 100F or hotter readings here are in that period, even though it can be 100F here from early June to September. It was 96F here today. I'd bet pretty good money we have less than 10 days left over 95F here through September 30th.

More warm water is coming up still, but not to +0.5C in Nino 3.4 yet. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 NOAA/CPC/IRI has an El Nino watch, 70% chance of an El Nino in DJF. The brief SOI spike of recent days should reverse soon back toward more El Nino-ish readings.

We've had some dew points in the 60s here (F) which is pretty impressive. City had 0.62" officially yesterday, now over 2 inches of rain since June 1, 0.69" of it in July. Hasn't been above 92F since 7/4, so its been fairly wet/cool. Been interesting seeing the easterly waves interact with the moisture in place.

Jamstec has a very cold winter for the US on its July run, with a pretty healthy peak for the El Nino it has developing (+1.5C)

The mountains have had enough rain down here to largely eliminate the risk of major wild fire expansion. Thunderstorms keep missing where my house is, but I'm sure we'll get something eventually in July. The month to date temperature anomalies look like one of the patterns I expect to see in the winter...warm CA, NE, MW cold SE, TX, NM, near normal NW.

If the Canadian is right, you could do a blend of 1992-93, 1996-97, 2014-15, 2015-16 if you ignore the solar minimum... Or you could do 1953-54, 1963-64, 1991-92, 1992-93, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1996-97, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2015-16 to implement the solar minimum (39 annualized in these years), with a neutral AMO and PDO, and an East-Central Modoki El Nino look. Year ONI DJF AMO N-A SUN Jul-Jun ONI DJF(p) Modoki PDO N-A Monsoon 1953 0.3 0.162 9.5 0.0 0.34 -0.79 1.53 1963 0.8 -0.036 29.1 -0.4 0.48 -0.88 5.06 1992 0.2 -0.227 103.3 1.6 0.38 0.61 5.02 1994 1.1 -0.004 36.9 0.0 0.51 -0.37 4.80 1996 -0.4 -0.058 14.5 -0.7 0.22 0.38 6.80 1996 -0.4 -0.058 14.5 -0.7 0.22 0.38 6.80 2006 0.6 0.208 20.1 -0.8 0.14 -0.04 9.42 2009 1.5 0.200 13.2 -0.9 0.77 0.43 3.96 2014 0.6 0.005 90.7 -0.3 0.49 2.07 5.67 2015 2.4 0.211 55.8 0.6 0.32 1.70 5.02 Mean 0.67 0.040 38.76 -0.14 0.39 0.35 5.41

Here is what the European has, fully past the Spring predictability barrier. This is what it had last July for comparison.

The June AMO came in at the lowest value since 2002. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data AMO peak looks like it was 2005-2012, after warming a lot in 1997-2004 and near neutral for much of 1989-1996. We may be transitioning to a more Neutral AMO for 2019-2026 before the real flip to the cold phase begins. I look at 2013-2018/9 as kind of a "warm, but cooling" era. We seem to be past the era when every month is warm in the Atlantic, to where MOST months are warm, and soon it will be half, then it will be rare, and so on.

The PDO value for June came in at -0.04 for June according to Nate Mantua's/JISAO calculations. Down from +0.79 last June and down from +0.11 in May. I find that Nino 1.2 and the PDO are better linked than Nino 3.4 and the PDO, and Nino 1.2 is still cold, so it doesn't shock me that the PDO dropped. The PDO does look like it is reversing with Nino 1.2 warming some recently.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 Nino 3 has popped into El Nino territory, while even Nino 1.2, the straggler, is getting dragged up to near Neutral now. MJJ ONI will be near flat Neutral still, I don't think the effects of Nino / near Nino SSTA show up until 3-6 weeks after, so late July-August is the earliest time frame via the weeklies for a sensible weather change. I had this Summer pretty warm in the West (by the ocean) so looks OK so far, the idea was the heat in the Plains/TX/NM/CO would get split in half by the monsoon in late June/July, and you'd have major heat waves (admittedly, thought it'd be NW, not SW coast) in July-Aug for the coasts.

With clouds and spotty rain today, we only hit the 80s, which is always nice in June or July. Starting to wonder if the July high here will end up below the long-term average of 92F - I don't think we've had a below average month for highs (1951-2010) since August 2017. Doesn't really seem like we're going to have many days above 90-92F for the next two weeks here, and quite a few (if it rains) will be in the 83-87F range, which is cold for July here. Cold/Wet July heavily favors a cold/wet December here - so here is hoping it rains a lot more this July. We've had two essentially snow-free Decembers in the city after a run of years where it snowed every December, wouldn't be surprised if we snapped back to a more normal winter pattern for the SW. Some kind of El Nino seems to be developing, with the SOI, subsurface, and Nino 3.4 all favorable at the moment.