raindancewx

The mountains have had enough rain down here to largely eliminate the risk of major wild fire expansion. Thunderstorms keep missing where my house is, but I'm sure we'll get something eventually in July. The month to date temperature anomalies look like one of the patterns I expect to see in the winter...warm CA, NE, MW cold SE, TX, NM, near normal NW.

If the Canadian is right, you could do a blend of 1992-93, 1996-97, 2014-15, 2015-16 if you ignore the solar minimum... Or you could do 1953-54, 1963-64, 1991-92, 1992-93, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1996-97, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2015-16 to implement the solar minimum (39 annualized in these years), with a neutral AMO and PDO, and an East-Central Modoki El Nino look. Year ONI DJF AMO N-A SUN Jul-Jun ONI DJF(p) Modoki PDO N-A Monsoon 1953 0.3 0.162 9.5 0.0 0.34 -0.79 1.53 1963 0.8 -0.036 29.1 -0.4 0.48 -0.88 5.06 1992 0.2 -0.227 103.3 1.6 0.38 0.61 5.02 1994 1.1 -0.004 36.9 0.0 0.51 -0.37 4.80 1996 -0.4 -0.058 14.5 -0.7 0.22 0.38 6.80 1996 -0.4 -0.058 14.5 -0.7 0.22 0.38 6.80 2006 0.6 0.208 20.1 -0.8 0.14 -0.04 9.42 2009 1.5 0.200 13.2 -0.9 0.77 0.43 3.96 2014 0.6 0.005 90.7 -0.3 0.49 2.07 5.67 2015 2.4 0.211 55.8 0.6 0.32 1.70 5.02 Mean 0.67 0.040 38.76 -0.14 0.39 0.35 5.41

Here is what the European has, fully past the Spring predictability barrier. This is what it had last July for comparison.

The June AMO came in at the lowest value since 2002. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data AMO peak looks like it was 2005-2012, after warming a lot in 1997-2004 and near neutral for much of 1989-1996. We may be transitioning to a more Neutral AMO for 2019-2026 before the real flip to the cold phase begins. I look at 2013-2018/9 as kind of a "warm, but cooling" era. We seem to be past the era when every month is warm in the Atlantic, to where MOST months are warm, and soon it will be half, then it will be rare, and so on.

The PDO value for June came in at -0.04 for June according to Nate Mantua's/JISAO calculations. Down from +0.79 last June and down from +0.11 in May. I find that Nino 1.2 and the PDO are better linked than Nino 3.4 and the PDO, and Nino 1.2 is still cold, so it doesn't shock me that the PDO dropped. The PDO does look like it is reversing with Nino 1.2 warming some recently.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 Nino 3 has popped into El Nino territory, while even Nino 1.2, the straggler, is getting dragged up to near Neutral now. MJJ ONI will be near flat Neutral still, I don't think the effects of Nino / near Nino SSTA show up until 3-6 weeks after, so late July-August is the earliest time frame via the weeklies for a sensible weather change. I had this Summer pretty warm in the West (by the ocean) so looks OK so far, the idea was the heat in the Plains/TX/NM/CO would get split in half by the monsoon in late June/July, and you'd have major heat waves (admittedly, thought it'd be NW, not SW coast) in July-Aug for the coasts.

With clouds and spotty rain today, we only hit the 80s, which is always nice in June or July. Starting to wonder if the July high here will end up below the long-term average of 92F - I don't think we've had a below average month for highs (1951-2010) since August 2017. Doesn't really seem like we're going to have many days above 90-92F for the next two weeks here, and quite a few (if it rains) will be in the 83-87F range, which is cold for July here. Cold/Wet July heavily favors a cold/wet December here - so here is hoping it rains a lot more this July. We've had two essentially snow-free Decembers in the city after a run of years where it snowed every December, wouldn't be surprised if we snapped back to a more normal winter pattern for the SW. Some kind of El Nino seems to be developing, with the SOI, subsurface, and Nino 3.4 all favorable at the moment.

You're the one who started the El Nino thread in April. The subsurface is still warm by Nino 3.4, and the surface has been warming. It isn't like last year yet where the warming tendency slowed in April, and ten reversed after May-Jun. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.anom.data 3.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 -0.44 -0.07 0.08 0.32 0.49 0.47 0.37 -0.14 -0.43 -0.52 -0.89 -0.95 2018 -0.98 -0.77 -0.75 -0.40 -0.08 0.17 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 2018 in Nino 3.4 looks like 2006 and also 2012 if you want recent comparisons. 2006 -0.92 -0.66 -0.66 -0.21 0.04 0.14 0.12 0.33 0.59 0.74 1.06 1.18 2012 -0.88 -0.66 -0.57 -0.39 -0.20 0.16 0.36 0.49 0.38 0.31 0.23 -0.22 A small reversal also isn't necessarily impossible either. 2014 -0.50 -0.61 -0.23 0.19 0.44 0.37 0.05 -0.01 0.28 0.48 0.83 0.75 Th question is whether it would be more like 2012 or more like 2014 were it to happen. Since 1950, there haven't been two "fake out" El Nino warms up in Summer in a row (i.e. ONI warming to near 0.5C in Summer before going negative again for winter) - that is why I learn towards El Nino conditions.

In fairness, LA kind of sucks. One of the nice things about being in the mountains, away from the oceans is that we tend to have our warmest and coldest days by solstice, I doubt we hit 100F again this year, and we only got there for around 10 minutes in June. I help run the numbers for a casino now, and a flukish super heavy rain event happened about an hour after I left work the other day, it actually kind of broke the roof and caused a leak in one spot, which damaged some of the slot machines.

Heavy rains missed Albuquerque itself today, but slammed areas due north and south of the city. A levee failed in Belen -

NOAA's PDO value for June dropped from May - usually a good indicator that the JISAO value will drop too. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 30-day/90-day SOI continue to drop as well. For now, I kind of like a blend of 1963-64, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2012-13 for the winter, with 1968, 1972, 2009 double weighted - you have a warm western half of Nino 3.4 and a somewhat similar NE Pacific and Atlantic to what the models show.

The warm water by Asia seems to spreading East and toward the surface while the warmest waters surface by 120W.

ONI came in at -0.1C for AMJ. June was +0.1C http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 Pretty significant warming from May to June according to the ECMWF while we wait for ONI from CPC. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 2018 1 0.01 -0.17 -0.16 2018 2 0.29 0.09 -0.11 2018 3 0.46 0.44 0.51 2018 4 0.58 0.62 0.80 2018 5 0.72 0.75 0.88 2018 6 0.77 0.81 0.87

I think it will be some kind of anti-2016-17 event. The 2016-17 event was considered a La Nina from July-Jan, but featured extreme warmth at times in Nino 1.2 I think 2018-19 will be considered an El Nino, with cold in Nino 1.2, and unusual (La Nina-like) warmth to the west of Nino 3.4 near Asia. I've been toying with calling these events "El-Transgender" or something since they have aspects of the boy and the girl in some sense rather than being really Neutral.

My point was more that even in areas where people supposedly care about environmentalism and global warming, they really don't. If you believe the oceans will rise 50m in the next 100 years why would you live by the ocean? I've been to Cape May County, used to go every Summer - would bet good money no parcel of land is more than 100 feet above level, and it is surrounded by water on three sides, but I'm sure some of the people who live there haven't put two and two together about the possible sea level rise. To go back on topic, the AMO has been warming up recently after the cold May/June, will be interesting to see what it looks look by mid-September. If it stays relatively cold, I don't think the min or shape in Sept of sea-ice extent looks anything like last year.

The idea that civilization can be redesigned because people care about the environment or the Earth's temperature seems kind of ridiculous to me. Liberals are supposedly the people who care about the environment, but they live in densely populated, highly urbanized areas, not just in the US but globally. I live in the West, with people who are small farmers and ranchers, where we have clean water, clean air, and can see thousands of stars every night and we kind of laugh at the idea that somehow the right is the problem. There is literally nothing stopping the Democrats from changing civilization to adapt to global warming in areas that are urban and by the ocean - that is how you know it won't happen. Los Angeles alone probably produces more smog and warming than 30+ US states if traffic is as bad as I remember.

My June outlook went with a blend of 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014 - those years had a fairly cool NE and the rest of the US warm. Looks good so far. Tentative idea for the winter is a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009, not a particularly good El Nino setup for the West, but a low-solar, weak El Nino, with a similar look in the Atlantic and a Modoki structure.

The Canadian Model update (6/30) has El Nino conditions for July through next Spring, with an NDJ peak. The model has shifted to more a ideal Modoki El Nino look, with Nino 1.2 much colder than 3.4

We've hit 100F on two days this year to date, but only for around 5-10 minutes officially. Lower elevations on the RGV floor have had hours of 100F+ readings though. My threshold for extreme heat down here is 103F or more, with a dewpoint over 45F, at that level it can be 90F at midnight and the people with swamp coolers suffer somewhat.

Some very warm subsurface waters are nearing the surface by 120W.

The AMO & 8/1 ice extent, for 1979-2017 when compared to 1979-2016, saw an increased r-value relationship. Jan-May AMO value is down 0.16 from last year (+0.08 v. +0.24). Theoretically worth around 0.5 million sq km in sea ice extent.

Nino 3.4 1950 24.55 25.06 25.87 26.28 26.18 26.46 26.29 25.88 25.74 25.69 25.47 25.29 1951 25.24 25.71 26.90 27.58 27.92 27.73 27.60 27.02 27.23 27.20 27.25 26.91 1952 26.67 26.74 27.17 27.80 27.79 27.18 26.53 26.30 26.36 26.26 25.92 26.21 1953 26.74 27.00 27.57 28.04 28.28 28.12 27.43 26.94 27.01 26.87 26.88 27.00 1954 26.98 27.03 26.90 26.64 27.12 26.80 26.11 25.43 25.12 25.23 25.57 25.26 1955 25.61 25.81 26.22 26.60 26.66 26.55 26.15 25.51 25.28 24.41 24.25 24.57 1956 25.34 25.76 26.46 26.85 27.13 26.81 26.23 25.68 25.73 25.75 25.56 25.71 1957 26.04 26.54 27.46 28.23 28.55 28.36 28.17 27.69 27.44 27.42 27.62 27.90 1958 28.33 28.24 28.27 28.27 28.31 27.99 27.32 26.85 26.40 26.45 26.75 26.62 1959 27.07 27.18 27.47 27.88 27.70 27.37 26.44 26.09 25.92 26.24 26.04 26.18 1960 26.27 26.29 26.98 27.49 27.68 27.24 26.88 26.70 26.44 26.22 26.26 26.22 1961 26.23 26.56 26.94 27.36 27.75 27.67 26.89 26.19 25.78 25.71 26.07 25.97 1962 25.96 26.19 26.80 27.13 27.05 27.08 26.76 26.33 25.94 25.97 25.75 25.67 1963 25.77 26.22 27.18 27.78 27.63 27.62 27.78 27.48 27.40 27.36 27.47 27.62 1964 27.34 27.13 27.02 26.95 26.82 26.59 26.33 25.60 25.32 25.37 25.26 25.23 1965 25.66 26.19 26.94 27.38 27.99 28.09 27.90 27.97 28.01 28.17 28.12 27.96 1966 27.67 27.55 28.21 28.16 27.55 27.64 27.33 26.48 26.27 26.22 26.23 26.03 1967 25.88 26.11 26.50 26.74 27.35 27.47 26.97 26.44 25.86 25.97 26.08 25.95 1968 25.69 25.68 26.33 27.10 27.19 27.88 27.58 27.01 26.72 26.75 27.20 27.27 1969 27.50 27.86 27.82 28.13 28.29 27.69 27.08 27.02 27.15 27.34 27.10 26.98 1970 26.83 26.95 27.14 27.74 27.63 27.04 26.21 25.60 25.65 25.60 25.57 25.27 1971 24.81 25.18 25.92 26.63 26.95 26.60 26.13 25.75 25.72 25.47 25.56 25.37 1972 25.62 26.30 27.09 27.89 28.32 28.18 28.14 27.95 27.95 28.26 28.61 28.69 1973 28.34 27.95 27.55 27.24 26.96 26.55 25.76 25.22 25.06 24.73 24.33 24.33 1974 24.46 25.10 25.84 26.46 26.64 26.53 26.39 26.33 26.08 25.78 25.61 25.63 1975 26.09 26.07 26.19 26.86 26.80 26.23 25.90 25.33 25.05 24.89 25.05 24.67 1976 24.54 25.49 26.46 26.88 27.20 27.35 27.13 26.98 27.02 27.46 27.41 27.09 1977 27.32 27.13 27.47 27.44 27.72 27.74 27.38 26.85 27.12 27.35 27.19 27.29 1978 27.17 27.00 27.09 27.12 27.20 27.02 26.74 26.07 26.01 26.25 26.33 26.54 1979 26.41 26.53 27.27 27.83 27.69 27.43 26.82 26.75 26.99 26.83 26.99 27.11 1980 27.08 26.97 27.31 27.75 28.01 27.94 27.23 26.48 26.44 26.46 26.60 26.65 1981 26.18 26.11 26.64 27.29 27.36 27.27 26.65 26.33 26.53 26.42 26.29 26.40 1982 26.67 26.59 27.41 28.03 28.39 28.26 27.66 27.58 28.21 28.71 28.62 28.80 1983 28.89 28.69 28.66 28.77 28.84 28.27 27.18 26.59 26.20 25.56 25.41 25.57 1984 25.88 26.56 26.77 27.14 27.20 26.83 26.79 26.61 26.38 26.04 25.52 25.25 1985 25.38 26.03 26.50 26.64 26.90 26.81 26.56 26.30 26.02 26.23 26.33 26.19 1986 25.89 26.05 26.87 27.49 27.40 27.42 27.18 27.17 27.24 27.53 27.71 27.72 1987 27.68 27.88 28.27 28.39 28.56 28.65 28.59 28.42 28.36 27.96 27.77 27.54 1988 27.45 27.03 27.38 27.38 26.68 25.99 25.56 25.66 25.72 24.82 24.65 24.63 1989 24.58 25.28 26.08 26.74 27.06 27.14 26.72 26.33 26.42 26.32 26.25 26.46 1990 26.56 26.96 27.33 27.90 28.02 27.64 27.38 27.07 26.94 26.93 26.81 26.95 1991 27.03 27.07 27.32 28.01 28.20 28.25 28.05 27.53 27.14 27.58 27.90 28.29 1992 28.38 28.53 28.66 29.02 28.98 28.30 27.51 26.91 26.65 26.42 26.42 26.44 1993 26.69 27.16 27.67 28.41 28.71 28.08 27.52 26.99 27.07 26.77 26.71 26.76 1994 26.64 26.81 27.39 28.08 28.24 28.04 27.54 27.38 27.20 27.47 27.81 27.85 1995 27.57 27.49 27.75 28.10 27.82 27.59 27.08 26.23 25.88 25.84 25.60 25.65 1996 25.69 25.89 26.67 27.35 27.55 27.29 26.85 26.64 26.27 26.27 26.29 25.95 1997 26.01 26.38 27.04 27.98 28.58 28.82 28.86 28.75 28.85 29.08 29.12 28.89 1998 28.93 28.78 28.62 28.60 28.51 27.34 26.30 25.57 25.46 25.25 25.24 24.91 1999 24.86 25.43 26.33 26.70 26.79 26.53 26.13 25.63 25.63 25.48 25.12 24.86 2000 24.78 25.21 26.30 26.95 27.07 26.94 26.63 26.37 26.20 26.02 25.92 25.68 2001 25.81 26.12 26.80 27.33 27.60 27.54 27.25 26.80 26.52 26.57 26.33 26.19 2002 26.39 26.71 27.29 27.84 28.24 28.44 28.03 27.72 27.81 27.96 28.17 27.97 2003 27.15 27.39 27.65 27.68 27.32 27.44 27.50 27.11 26.99 27.14 27.04 27.03 2004 26.81 26.98 27.40 27.89 28.00 27.86 27.78 27.62 27.53 27.44 27.36 27.34 2005 27.21 27.11 27.73 28.08 28.24 27.77 27.06 26.80 26.68 26.65 26.11 25.68 2006 25.63 26.08 26.57 27.50 27.85 27.73 27.30 27.16 27.32 27.41 27.69 27.74 2007 27.24 26.88 27.10 27.50 27.46 27.37 26.71 26.14 25.61 25.32 25.17 25.01 2008 24.86 25.08 26.07 26.83 27.09 27.04 26.99 26.72 26.47 26.37 26.25 25.74 2009 25.66 25.96 26.59 27.47 27.99 28.04 27.78 27.42 27.40 27.60 28.16 28.34 2010 28.07 28.01 28.18 28.20 27.71 27.04 26.22 25.47 25.12 25.03 25.06 25.00 2011 25.00 25.64 26.36 27.05 27.41 27.35 26.87 26.21 25.92 25.67 25.52 25.54 2012 25.67 26.08 26.67 27.32 27.61 27.75 27.54 27.32 27.10 26.98 26.86 26.34 2013 26.01 26.24 27.03 27.57 27.53 27.30 26.91 26.47 26.54 26.52 26.56 26.43 2014 26.05 26.14 27.00 27.90 28.25 27.96 27.23 26.82 27.01 27.16 27.46 27.31 2015 27.05 27.17 27.75 28.52 28.85 28.90 28.75 28.79 28.93 29.08 29.42 29.26 2016 29.11 29.01 28.90 28.72 28.23 27.69 26.82 26.28 26.14 25.98 25.94 26.10 2017 26.12 26.67 27.32 28.03 28.30 28.06 27.54 26.70 26.29 26.15 25.74 25.62 2018 25.57 25.97 26.49 27.31 27.71 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 Year to date, for SST (actual) figures in Nino 3.4, 2012, 2006, 1996 are pretty close for Jan-May, within 0.2C of 2018, and 2009 is pretty close too. We'll see what June brings. A blend of winters 1996-97, 2006-07, 2012-13 would actually be pretty cold here. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data

^^ You have to be careful with that, the anomalies are all centered on 30 year periods that change every five years. Older events warmed up a lot too.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4