raindancewx

Starting to think we have a shot at >=5 inches of rain for June-August here. Well over four inches through 8/17 at 7:30 pm.

The monthly modoki values by Box A, Box B and Box C are back to 1870 here - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt The forecast line is on the main Jamstec page. Box C is warming faster than the others, so I think the Modoki forecasts de-trend for the long-term changes in the three zones. I asked one of the Jamstec scientists about that on Twitter a while ago, and that is my basis for the de-trend idea, but I could be misreading since I had to translate his response from Japanese.

I don't even really think of those two events as remotely similar, 1997-98 was so warm in Nino 1.2 it had a negative Modoki value, v. the +0.7 you had in 2009 and 1968. Look at the Modoki values in 2006-07 (+0.14) v. 1997-98 (-0.66) in DJF. The "El Nino" spectrum to me is like an X-Y axis, -1 to +1 for Modoki structure (1 is like 2009-10, -1 is like 1997-98) and then ONI in DJF is +0.5 to +2.5. This event has "coordinates" of +0.15 and +0.8C to me, which is similar to 2006-07 with some important differences in other areas (AMO notably). The 2005-06 winter was pretty similar to last winter here for what its worth. 2006:12:16:0 0.824027 0.855819 0.238438 0.276899 2007:1:16:0 0.593035 0.65781 0.306874 0.110693 2007:2:16:0 0.367782 0.341768 0.32955 0.0321232 1997:12:16:0 0.854615 3.36762 0.284503 -0.971448 1998:1:16:0 0.974028 2.85706 0.0732014 -0.491103 1998:2:16:0 0.803511 2.41071 0.23594 -0.519815 Box B, the second value, is broadly similar to Nino 1.2 (but bigger) and was at +2.9 for DJF. 2006-07 was kind of a weak basin-wide event.

One of these years we'll get an east-based El Nino that isn't super strong, and I think a lot of the West will simultaneously recover for water storage and water tables. 2016-17 wasn't half bad, just warm here, so a lot of it evaporated, but it was amazing seeing how quickly the water came in went in the past 18 months. The east-based events seem to exert more control on precip patterns in UT/CO than the Modoki Enso events. My winter last year was among the all-time hot/dry combo winters. The winters that follow those are kind of legendary, and the Summers in those years have been somewhat similar to this year, fairly warm, but also pretty wet. It's 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 - those are the years after the all-time terrible winters out here for both heat and precip. The SOI blend for those five years is -14 or something in August, which is kind of what this August looks like. The big -SOI in August is usually a decent indicator for major moisture in Feb/Mar in the following March in the SW.

The Jamstec trended to a wetter winter for NM & TX, but also warmer. Shows a somewhat weaker El Nino. Last August, there was a huge correction away from the previously shown El Nino in July. Not this year.

The Jamstec still has an El Nino. I'd call it an east-central event, not a Modoki. Pretty -PDO look too actually, and I'd say it trended the Atlantic somewhat colder too. The model has the SW cold now. Rest of the US? Not so much. I think the model is assuming that with less warmth in the center of the Nino zone that the Nino would behave more like a 1997-98 event than a 2009-10 event. In truth, I think in between is more likely personally, ala what I've shown recently. The cold over Maine...and not anywhere else in eastern North America is kind of weird too? If you look at how different Greenland is have to assume the model has some kind of NAO input also. The model trended to a stronger STJ. Maybe in reaction to the SOI waking up lately? The Modoki structure moved away from the 1968/2009 extreme of +0.7 (CPAC)-(EPAC*0.5)-(WPAC*0.5) to +0.3 for winter, somewhat like 2014 v. 2009. Finally, like I keep saying a weak El Nino seems to be the outcome with the most support, and the Jamstec has joined the chorus for that. Peak is now under +1.0C (ONI would hit maybe +0.8C?) from +1.1C previously. Last year, the Jamstec had a +1.0 DJF El Nino in its July run, before rapidly correcting down to +0.2 for DJF in its August run and then showing a La Nina after. Doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

Latest PDO value from JISAO/Nate Mantua arrived in my email today. PDO is now comparable to last year. PDO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12 0.88 0.79 0.10 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.15 0.50 2018** 0.70 0.37 -0.05 0.11 0.11 -0.04 0.11

Warming West, cooling east. Nino 4 is the most stable region overall, and warmer than last year, so the -SOI should prevent an imminent collapse in 3/3.4 a la last year. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 18JUL2018 21.3-0.3 26.1 0.6 27.6 0.4 29.1 0.3 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 Last year, for comparison. 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1

I still expect an El Nino, but if we flat-line at +0.2C or +0.3C in the weeklies through mid-September, I think a 2012-13 like collapse in an ONI sense becomes possible. Will give it to mid-September. The big -SOI burst should help a lot given the warmth in Nino 4. Neutral years and El Nino Modoki years are pretty similar out here anyway. The August plume for Nino 3.4 from the ECMWF implied a fall off, before a return to warm Nino 3.4 conditions. If that ends up verifying, I don't think the ECMWF Nino 3.4 plume will change much for September. Last September, the ECMWF handled the following six months pretty well, so that is the run to watch.

The <-20 readings for the daily SOI are a good sign for an El Nino. SOI doesn't usually drop like that in Neutral or La Nina conditions. 30/90 day SOI are around -2 now, which is Neutral but heading in the right direction. I think the European is probably right, August may be a touch colder than Nino 3.4 in July, but some kind of rebound looks likely going forward. The warm water should surface by 120W soon, then at some point the warm waters west will move east and surface.

In the post 1994 warm AMO era, the AMO reading for July was the coldest since 2002. Only 1996 & 2002 were colder. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2016 0.231 0.156 0.188 0.177 0.344 0.409 0.432 0.457 0.458 0.380 0.390 0.335 2017 0.225 0.227 0.167 0.283 0.314 0.308 0.302 0.310 0.350 0.433 0.352 0.364 2018 0.173 0.062 0.132 0.064 -0.001 -0.011 0.018 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

European last August had the right idea for Fall/Winter/Spring after showing an El Nino in July 2017 for that winter. This year, it has corrected to a weak El Nino for winter. Every single run of the model has borderline El Nino to moderate El Nino conditions for Fall...so yeah. The dotted line is the verification from last year.

Honestly, after playing around the extended data, I like 1934-35 (not an El Nino), 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07 as the winter blend for the PDO, AMO, El Nino strength, Modoki structure, solar conditions, ENSO order, and my local weather this Summer. It all fits. The Modoki structure comes to +0.26 in that setup, but I think it'd actually be weaker than that, even with Nino 3.4 much warmer than Nino 1.2, because the area east of the Philippines is included in the Modoki calculation. It's BOX A-(0.5*BOX B)-(0.5*BOX C). If you plug in the blend of those Octobers SSTs into my Modoki calculator, it gives these anomalies to get the Modoki structure: BOX A: +0.592 BOX B: +0.478 Box C: +0.528 Modoki: +0.088 - much lower than 2009, mainly because Box A (~Nino 3.4) was warmer in 2009-10 and Box C (W. Pac) was much colder. This will change, but the blend looks quite close to now in the N. Hem:

Hit 98F today in Albuquerque. That is pretty hot for August here. All-time August record is 101F, we last hit 100F in 1994 in August. Even 98F in August is pretty rare, last happened in 2015.

Speaking for my area, during the Monsoon season we tend to get relatively frequent "cold" snaps when the AMO is positive in Summer, i.e. highs in the 70s/low 80s instead of 90s. This year, we've had an alternation between mild/wet and warm dry, which is more consistent with the "warm" snaps in the Monsoon season during the negative AMO in Summer, which I find interesting. Super El Nino or not in 2015, August was incredibly hot here that year with the AMO relatively cool. Heat in September seems to be especially severe in the SW during AMO+, high solar years - look at September in the 1950s out here relative to the past 30 years. Will be very interesting to see if we get a number of cold Septembers with the AMO colder and very low solar activity for the next two to three years. Should be very interesting seeing what the July AMO number is. Really think -0.000 to -0.100 is possible, although I'd wager up to +0.05 or +0.1 is possible too.

I wouldn't worry about the drop yet, this week saw Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 warm up some, so any trades originating from those regions will re-warm/prevent cooling in Nino 3.4 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04JUL2018 21.9-0.2 26.5 0.6 27.7 0.4 29.2 0.3 11JUL2018 21.6-0.2 26.1 0.4 27.5 0.2 29.0 0.2 18JUL2018 21.3-0.3 26.1 0.6 27.6 0.4 29.1 0.3 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 Here is 2014 for comparison, it had a brief break in Nino 3.4 warming too. 02JUL2014 23.6 1.4 27.0 1.0 27.8 0.4 29.1 0.3 09JUL2014 23.0 1.1 26.5 0.6 27.6 0.3 29.1 0.3 16JUL2014 23.1 1.5 26.2 0.6 27.4 0.2 29.1 0.4 23JUL2014 22.9 1.6 26.0 0.5 27.1-0.1 28.9 0.2 30JUL2014 21.8 0.6 25.5 0.2 26.9-0.1 29.0 0.3 06AUG2014 22.2 1.2 25.6 0.4 27.0 0.0 29.2 0.5 13AUG2014 21.9 1.2 25.5 0.5 26.9 0.0 29.0 0.4 2012 was actually warmer at this time, before massively reversing. 25JUL2012 22.0 0.7 26.4 1.0 27.7 0.6 28.9 0.1 01AUG2012 21.6 0.5 26.1 0.9 27.6 0.6 29.0 0.3 08AUG2012 20.9 0.0 25.9 0.8 27.7 0.8 29.1 0.4 15AUG2012 20.8 0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.6 29.1 0.4 22AUG2012 21.0 0.4 25.5 0.5 27.4 0.6 29.1 0.4 2006 is somewhat similar. 05JUL2006 22.2 0.1 26.0 0.1 27.5 0.1 29.0 0.1 12JUL2006 22.0 0.2 25.8 0.0 27.3 0.0 29.0 0.2 19JUL2006 22.3 0.8 25.8 0.2 27.3 0.1 29.1 0.3 26JUL2006 22.0 0.7 25.7 0.3 27.3 0.2 29.2 0.4 02AUG2006 21.9 0.8 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.2 29.2 0.5 09AUG2006 21.7 0.8 25.3 0.2 27.1 0.2 29.1 0.4 as it 1994. 06JUL1994 21.9-0.1 25.6-0.3 27.4 0.1 29.3 0.5 13JUL1994 21.3-0.4 25.2-0.5 27.3 0.1 29.4 0.6 20JUL1994 20.9-0.6 25.1-0.4 27.4 0.2 29.5 0.8 27JUL1994 20.8-0.5 24.8-0.6 27.2 0.1 29.4 0.6 03AUG1994 20.1-1.0 24.5-0.8 27.3 0.3 29.4 0.7

I'm expecting a weak El Nino. JJA isn't going to hit +0.5C (Aug would need to top +1.1C), and I don't think JAS gets there either. These are the only El Ninos where ASO is the first El Nino period - 2006, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1976 (1923 did it too). 1986 & 1994 both briefly got over +1.0C at their peaks, but these are fairly weak Ninos overall. Against MAM, AMJ, MJJ, the closest ONI years (w/in 0.2C anomaly of 2018 observations for each period) are 1934, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1986, 2006, 2012. Those are all special winters in their own way. 2018 MAM: -0.4C AMJ: -0.1C MJJ: +0.1C Close Matches: 2012: -0.4, -0.2, +0.1 2006: -0.3, -0.0, -0.0 1986: -0.2, -0.1, -0.0 1976: -0.5, -0.3, -0.0 1968: -0.4, -0.0, +0.3 1967: -0.4, -0.2, +0.0 1934: -0.5, -0.3, -0.1 The lower solar years of the bunch are 2006, 1986, 1976, 1934. Last winter was very similar to 1933-34, 2005-06, and 1975-76 and 1985-86 to a lesser extent, some very active hurricane seasons, exceptionally hot/dry winters in the West, and 1986 had the huge SOI drop in February when ENSO was still pretty cold. So a blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 is probably worth looking at nationally. My idea for winter has been to have weak El Nino, Nino 1.2 colder than 3.4, low solar, the cold AMO ring, and to take into account "order" for ENSO, i.e. El Ninos after La Ninas. The blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 actually accomplishes that nicely if you look (I adjusted the scale to be less impressed with cold, since the four year mean is 40+ years ago). We'll have to see how it goes, but if you moved the core of the Nino to 140W in the image below, that's fairly close to what I think winter will look like.

There is still a lot of heat below the surface around 120W and west of 170W. There is an extended SOI collapse ongoing now which looks to continue into the future. The waters around 5S in the Nino 3.4 zone are still fairly cold. Overall though, August still looks like it is warming from July. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Aug 2018 1012.05 1012.60 -13.17 2.46 -0.44 4 Aug 2018 1013.34 1012.60 -5.34 2.34 -0.46 3 Aug 2018 1013.80 1013.10 -5.58 1.78 -0.67 2 Aug 2018 1013.81 1013.30 -6.74 1.26 -0.79 1 Aug 2018 1013.63 1013.50 -9.04 1.18 -0.68 To put it simply...there is some warmth at the surface, there is some warmth below the surface, and the SOI is negative which to me indicates there is some kind of coupling going on. You can get a very hot Summer in the West with a developing Nino. A blend of 1958, 1994, 2002, 2014 is pretty close in JJA for high temperature departures to what has been observed the last 60 days. I don't want to give the impression that I'm expecting some huge, or even moderate El Nino - I am not. I think the peak is +0.5-0.9C. Whether the peak lasts long enough to be considered an El Nino, who knows. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 Neutrals both got to -0.3/-0.4 for a time, and acted like a La Nina for a bit, so to me, that is possible in the opposite direction. Edit: Also, the PDO looks to me like it is warming some. Still near Neutral, but NOAA's PDO jumped quite a bit in July from June, and the JISAO value likely will too. The PDO for Nov-Apr is predictable by using a base state value for Mar-Aug and then Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs. You create similar initial conditions from analogs and that is Nov-Apr. A pretty good idea for what the PDO will do should be available around mid-Sept when the Mar-Aug base period is in and we have an idea what Oct will be doing in Nino 1.2 http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

For those expecting a super cold winter in the East, keep in mind 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 all had positive to record positive PDO values in DJF - a strong signal for cold in the East. In 2002-03 MJJ was already in an El Nino (+0.7C), which drove the PDO up through winter. No evidence of that happening yet for the coming winter. I would argue the Atlantic being colder and the PDO being more negative are both pretty strong warm signals for the East relative to 2009-10 and 2014-15, even though some kind of Modoki El Nino is still plausible. Nov-Apr PDO is generally predictable by taking the PDO base in Mar-Aug before winter, and then seeing what Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs are. Reproducing those values is a good indicator for the PDO in Nov-Apr. All in all, the PDO looks much more negative for Eastern cold. May come in around 0 in Nov-Apr instead of +2 like in Nov-Apr 2014-15, a huge change.

ONI came in a +0.1C for JJA. The July Nino 3.4 reading was up, but only slightly from June. Trends in past years that look like 2018 include 2012, 2006, 1986. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11 2018 6 27.78 27.65 0.13 2018 7 27.43 27.26 0.17 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Last year, July was cooling off from June and the warm subsurface vanished. Doesn't look that way this year.

Need to see the July numbers for Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4 first. The Modoki formula is Box A-(0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C), and very positive values correspond to Modoki El Ninos. I'm expecting a +0.5 Modoki value, similar to the DJF Modoki value for 2014-15, but not as severe a winter in the East without the super charged positive PDO. You can predict Modoki values in each box for winter with October values pretty closely with simple correlations, to estimate the overall Modoki structure. That method had -0.1 to +0.1 last winter, which verified. July data is good at predicting October - so that is the method. For Box C, the rate of warming is faster since 1900 than the other boxes and solar conditions correlate to wind direction/velocity, so year and solar are important components for that area. This is what the numbers input for last year had (-0.08 was the actual DJF Modoki value). This is a calculator for Modoki structure I made on my computer. Region SSTA Anomalies by Box Global Area Box A 165E to 140W, 10S to 10N Trop Pac Middle Box B 110W to 70W, 15S to 5N S. America waters Box C 125E-145E, 10S to 20N Japan to Equator Index Modoki = (A SSTA)-(0.5B SSTA)-(0.5C*SSTA) *Enter Input Values in Yellow Boxes. Computer Will Calculate Pink Values* BOX Input Temp, C Forecast 1950-2017 Range (ERSST V.5) BOX A Oct SST, C 26.15 -0.064 24.4C to 29.1C BOX B Oct SST, C 20.21 -0.251 18.9C to 24.7C BOX C 0.492 Enter Input Values in this Color Box C Projection Factors Factor Timeframe Input Year Dec of DJF 2017 Sunspots July-June 18.0 ONIp ONI prior DJF -0.4 Predicted Modoki Value for Winter -0.184 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

Looks like the Euro data set had Nino 3.4 at +0.4C in July. CPC ONI for MJJ is probably +0.1 or +0.2, up from -0.1 in AMJ.

We've been getting rains here almost every day since late July. Pretty wonderful honestly. This is my very early idea for winter -

I think the high water vapor is more of a lag from the prior warmth, we were at +0.7C for SSTs in the 2015-16 El Nino against 2017-18. My thing is that eventually gets transported to the driest areas of the Earth - the deserts of the SW US, the Sahara, the Gobi, etc, and the arctic/antarctic. Eventually, the deserts/cold areas eat the moisture alive, transform it into snow and ice in the winter, which then begins to dissipate the heat by reflecting out more light and making rivers/lakes, etc colder. It seems fairly likely that you get some kind of volcanic response too if there is less weight from ice and snow by the mountains from the heat, which also corrects the heat. I'm increasingly skeptical that 2012 will be beaten anytime soon in the Arctic, the CFS/Canadian keep sustaining the cool AMO ring longer in each subsequent run, and we remain due for a major volcanic eruption in the tropics, they are supposed to happen every 20-30 years, and the last was Pinatubo in 1991. The volcanoes waking up now, coincidence or not are similar to those that woke up around the 1963 warm to cold AMO flip, which is why I was so interested in Agung last year.