raindancewx

If you look at the first post in this discussion, it has the mid-June maps for 2017 & 2018. There is far more warm water at the subsurface, and far less cold water now. In 2012, ONI did reach near El Nino conditions in Fall, JAS to SON, before falling off to near La Nina conditions in winter (-0.4 in DJF). ONI values in MAM (-0.4 +/-0.2) were similar to the following years: If ONI is -0.1 or -0.2 in AMJ, after being -0.4 in MAM, years within 0.2 for both periods include: 1962, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012 June 2018 is pretty hot in the middle of the US (cooling off quickly here after the big rains yesterday), cool FL, NE, NW. That looks like the opposite of 1967, and similar to 2001 and 2012. Going forward, the colder Atlantic in June (y/y) favors a colder July v. last year in the East and SW, with the warmer Nino 3.4 favoring enhanced moisture in the SW (AZ especially). The SOI was -9.5 last June, so that won't be too different from this year. My hunch is we get an El Nino, but it starts in July or August, and then it ends fairly early, say January/February, it will be the flip of 2016-17 (Modoki El Nino, not Modoki La Nina, colder Atlantic ring by Africa, not warm, near neutral PDO, lower solar) with maybe near exact opposite behavior. The La Nina that ended in March started in September. Something like a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009 is my idea for later Summer and Fall, maybe Winter too.

I live in the SW, so we had a record cold high today (74F) locally. Record rain too for the date (0.83") - wettest day here in three years (9/22/2015). The data goes back to 1892. June 2018 is already the wettest June since 1996 here, and it is only 6/16. Wet Junes here are much more common here when the AMO is colder, the sun is very weak, and after a dry Nov-Jan period, so check, check, and check. My replication analogs from Feb 10 in my Spring Outlook had 1.88" for June here, we're currently at 1.40". Just about all the cold is gone in the Nino region subsurface now. If we go to an El Nino after a La Nina with low solar, I'd bet on a pretty cold winter out here. Maybe not super wet though.

Today has seen 0.83" in Albuquerque. Back to 1892, the record was 0.06" for the date. June is now the wettest here since 1996, with 1.40", and the month only half over. I've been talking about a wet June since January, so pleased to see it. My replication method (mimicking Jul-Dec observations by blending historical years in my Feb 10 forecast for Spring) implied 1.88 inches for June. That no longer looks crazy! https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD Also noted that extremely heavy rain in June is more likely in the SW after a very dry NDJ period.

The SOI has crashed into El Nino territory for June so far, below -8 once again. I'm not sure that the strength of ENSO events will really matters that much outside of the El/N/La categorization, so much as the orientation. 2015-16 & 1997-98 had similar ONI values, but one was heavily east based. Results were very different. My pet theory is the most extreme winters in a region where ENSO is a driving factor occur as a result of ENSO order - El Ninos after ~La Ninas are usually pretty interesting in the SW (2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1986, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1963, 1957, 1945, 1939, 1929, etc) for cold/high precipitation, the same is true in the NW in La Ninas after El Ninos (2016 was an extremely severe winter in places like Montana, as was 1983, and so on). For the East, the Modoki structure matters most, since those areas are "downwind" of the areas where ENSO is more of a direct driver.

Saturday looks like a pretty good day for precipitation in the SW. Fingers crossed.

Bud + the monsoon setup coming a bit early (Sat?) should be a pretty widespread rain event for much of the SW US.

I had a wet June in the SW this year, which is a nice break from our usual unbelievable heat, looks like that will verify with the dying East Pacific hurricanes juicing the early-to establish monsoon flow. Been seeing reports of thunderstorms firing off further north in Mexico than usual, daily, for the time of year for weeks now.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 Nino 3 and Nino 4 are both getting there, but Nino 3.4 remains somewhat colder.

The drought in the Dakota and TX Panhandle from last Fall implied a pretty hot start to Summer in the Plains to me, the high that prevented precipitation for five months in Amarillo wasn't just going to pack up its bags and leave. I will say, once AZ & NM start getting wet consistently, which should happen over the next ten days, the real core of the heat will get crippled to some extent. The remnant moisture from the storms in the E. Pac should help with everything.

^^ Looks pretty bright. Expecting a pretty active monsoon for much of the region. Already some extensive heavy rain earlier in the month.

Updates: MAM ONI: -0.4C no longer La Nina http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php May SSTA in Nino 3.4: -0.13C http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Weeklies have basically no cold water anywhere now in the Nino regions. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 Very warm waters surfacing in the next few weeks in Nino 3 looks like.

Looks like the city had 0.5-1.0 inches of rain today, with areas west of town reporting up to 3 inches and a couple confirmed tornado. Lots of hail and thunder around too. Rained so hard it was actually fell into the upper 50s around 3 pm, which is an amazing outcome for June.

Possibility of heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes on Sunday for much of New Mexico. Might give the city the first wet June since 2010. CAPE (up to 2000j/kg?) and Bulk sheer values look fairly impressive for this part of the world.

My analogs had a pretty hot start to Summer in June nationally, then the heat shifts to the NW. We're looking at possibly near record rain tomorrow in NM with high cape values and upper air moisture, and that was kind of my idea for the Summer here - lots of heat early, interrupted by heavy rain, and then once the rain becomes consistent it will be kind of cool v. long-term average highs. June is supposed to be the transition. If the El Nino holds on into winter, I think the SW will be fairly cold, at least for highs, maybe 3-8F colder v. the past winter.

Canadian trended the Atlantic colder for JJA, but has a warmer Nino 3.4 / El Nino.

CPC, the CFS and the GFS currently like a wet June for NM - let's do it. Kill the heat.

For anyone who remembers, my PDO Nov-Apr forecast method, blending October Nino 1.2 readings prior to winter with the PDO base state in Mar-Aug prior to winter ended up working pretty well at predicting the PDO for this past Nov-Apr. I tested it in three ways: Using anomalies against the most recent 30 years, against 1951-2010 means, and by actual SSTs, not anomalies. Run away winner was by SSTs, I dug this out from last October and filled in the final PDO value for Nov-Apr (+0.30).

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 A warm PDO typically has a cold tongue shooting out east from Japan, so even with the warming, the PDO still looks neutral or even negative given the warmer waters are nearer the NW Pacific than the NE Pacific. It almost looks like the cold ring is trying to develop by the NW part of North America.

That is this May v. last May. The cold by the North Atlantic by Canada has some implications for sea ice, looks like it is 5-6C colder than last year? That won't just disappear overnight. June is a good indicator down here, very rare to have a cold winter if June is more than +2F above the 60-year mean high (1951-2010), so will be watching that. In the SW, July ties in well with December precipitation, and August ties in well with precipitation for the Jan 15-Apr 15 period in my experience. The high MJO wave in June is unusual too by the way. High MJO, starting phase 3 in June last happened in 1993, and before that 1990, 1987, and that is it, all the way back to 1975 on the BOM MJO rotation site. Not a particularly extreme June nationally in the blend of those years.

Slow and steady progress, lots of subsurface warming still.

With the Pacific fairly Neutral now, the Atlantic and solar conditions are probably going to drive the pattern for 6-8 weeks. Cold AMO in May is fairly strongly linked to a colder June for TX and parts of NM too - we will see.

Maybe it is auto-correlation or a fluke or something, but we haven't had a warm-neutral winter with low solar since the 1950s, I think it would have happened more recently if it wasn't slightly disfavored by solar tilting the ENSO scale a bit. I do think the PDO will be much less positive than 2014-15, when you had the insane +2 reading for Nov-Apr by JISAO. An El Nino with an opposite sign PDO or even a flat PDO would be a pretty different winter for the US v. 2014-15 and 2015-16. Not a blow torch everywhere, and not cold in the East/warm in the West. The Mar-Aug PDO base state plus October Nino 1.2 readings re-created from analogs are a good PDO estimate for Nov-Apr, and we know Mar/Apr 2018 is neutral for the PDO. It's been a long time since the AMO was negative with an El Nino and a warm Pacific, that's a semi-ideal pattern for cold and moisture in the SW, so I do hope we hit the jackpot with all three phases aligned. The AMO looks legitimately negative this May.

The Jamstec has updated its Modoki values through March now. The DJF Modoki value was -0.08, way up from -0.48 last year. Negative Modoki values are generally events where Nino 1.2 is warmer than 3.4 by a lot, while positive Modoki events are when Nino 3.4 is warmer than 1.2 by a lot. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt Some kind of blend of 1933-34, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1980-81, 1995-96, 2005-06 seems like the closest match to last winter based on the AMO, PDO, ONI, Solar, SW Monsoon, Modoki, and ONI in the prior year blend that I use for my winter outlooks. Unusual concentration of major hurricanes hitting Texas prior to winter among the closest matches to last winter.

We've had two 50+ snow/rain free streaks since mid-October here - but the second one ended today. BTW, the Atlantic is absolutely frigid all of the sudden. Might be the coldest May AMO since the warm phase began in 1995.

Here are the weeklies. Had my first rain since late March, and my first thunder and lightning since last September here. We had a mid-Oct to mid-Jan streak with no rain earlier, then a 54-day dry streak that ended today. Any type of new pattern has to be better here for moisture, with the exception of Feb/Mar when the SOI crash beat back the dryness temporarily. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2