Daniel Boone

3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Maybe that's a good sign for cold weather here lol

Yeah, especially the way they've performed this Winter.

Weeklies have gone mild in 3 and 4.

Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

Snowing harder than chicken lips here in north jackson!! Half inch already. Very big flakes

Happy for you there man ! 

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And this current SSW should show up around early March.  We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now,  but maybe went to Asia.  It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event.  Tough to know.  I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though.  Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.

Yeah, the MJO is the problem; where it's going to be. Other than that I'd be pretty gung ho. If the MJO is low amp during warm phases we should still be alright if that Blocking and EPO Ridge sets up imo. 

On 2/10/2024 at 5:07 PM, PowellVolz said:

Flood advisory for E Knox, Jeff, Sevier, Etc…. Up over an inch now and the fire hose goes back to Texas.


.

Only . 14" of rain here today. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thunder in the mountains!

FTW ! 

Can we continue to get that SE trend ftw ! 

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The big thing to watch with NAO climatology, the better storms IMO often occur towards the end of the NAO cycle.  We have definitely had more -NAOs during the past 4-5 winters.  2-3 years ago it became more apparent that we were headed back towards a -NAO winter scheme.  We really had gone maybe a couple of decades without seeing consistent winter-after-winter -NAO stuff.  (Now, that is off the top of my head.)   So, it is important to really dig into storms versus actually seasonal or month by month analogs.  NE TN can score from a DC pattern that is snowy.   We can also score from an EPO pattern.  Where we have trouble scoring is with a moderate to strong ENSO of either type.  We need ENSO forcing to be weak but not nada either.  
 

As for middle TN during the past three years, I could make more of a case for La Niña driving those patterns as you all often need a bit of a SER to score.  It sucks in E TN, but that SER often produces a storm track along the Apps or through the eastern Valley.  Whether that SER is a product of an EPO or the EPO is the product of the SER...now that is a fun debate.  Why?  Well, the SER is basically a standing wave and maybe we could also call it a block.  When that SER sharpens along the SE region it backs flow again much like the NAO, and it consequently (one could argue) buckles the jet.  I will have to go back and look, but one of the big recent storms for middle TN or the ice storm had a stout SER which maybe was connected to the NAO.  It seems like one of those storms came directly at the end of NAO blocking or at the beginning.  I am not in a place where I can check NAOs currently.  
 

Either way, when the Atlantic has a block form (SER or NAO), that often forces the upstream ridge to pop.  Placement of the mid-continent trough is highly dependent on where the block sets up shop.  And it makes a big difference here.

 

Now, prior to these recent current -NAO winter episodes, the Pacific often drove the pattern as the NAO was absent.  However, that was not what my original post which was about re: whether the EPO drove this recent January outbreak.  The EPO during this recent outbreak was a likely by-product of the NAO.

 

So rule of thumb.  Some EPO pattens are a direct result of NAO blocking, but not all EPO patterns are a result of NAO blocking.  When a couplet of NAO and western blocks form...pretty good chance the NAO forced that.

You're on it today man ! Great work ! 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

And even with this system on 17th-20th(it has moved around a bit), if one goes to Tropical Tidbits at 500, all one has to do is toggle back until they see the heights over Greenland get stronger.  I think those runs are around Feb 7th at 6z(off the top of my head...I breezed through that a minute ago).  Then, go look at the surface for that storm. As the NAO has weakened during subsequent runs, the storm has gotten warmer (until 6z today which was a good run). One thing the NAO block also does is it also often turns the AO negative, not always but often.  That opens the door for cross polar flow from Siberia.  The NAO block then often forces that flow into the East - if it doesn't hook into the SER!  LOL.  

Yeah, hopefully we trend back stronger with the block. Just looking at 12z GFS and extrapolating if the Model is under estimating the block on how we could be in the game as early as the 15 th. At least a couple inches. Strong enough forcing southward and that massive PA Dumping would be over us. That's not going to be the case this go around though. But, could be enough to get in on some of that southern extent. 

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The downstream NAO ridge/block often forces the western ridge to pop by buckling the jet, and that is likely what occurred during January.  Without the NAO, the flow would have been zonal.  The NAO sharpens western ridges(forces the upstream jet to buckle) and brings cold southward but allows storms to gain latitude along the EC. The debate for me is not whether the the EPO was there,  I just don’t think it would have been there without the NAO buckling and forcing the trough into the East. That trough in the East forced the western ridge to pop.   I just don’t think the January pattern was EPO driven....the EPO was a byproduct of downstream blocking and a retraction of the Pacific jet.  Without the NAO, the EPO ridge doesn’t form in a meaningful way IMHO.  That is my point.  As soon as the NAO disappears, the forcing for the EPO is lost...and it disappears almost immediately.  This has been a common then during the past 4-5 winters.  The cold during the past few winters has often been coupled with a brief NAO episode.  Think of it like a water hose on high pressure.  When the end is blocked, the hose will often buckle.  That is exactly my point.  Without the block - no upstream EPO block this winter.

 

We can get into previous winters and storms later, my original comment was specifically about the January cold being driven by the NAO block, and it was.  I stand by that comment 100%.  You will find that is often a common theme during big EC storms.  And that has to be fished out of data (almost on a day by day basis) as the NAO (of late) appears for 2-3 weeks and won’t show in a monthly 500 pattern on reanalysis as it gets washed out.   Again, what the NAO does is it forces the jet to buckle in an upside down omega pattern and forces confluence over the eastern half of the country.  E TN, more often than not, needs it.  

That’s what I have, the defense rests.

Yeah, very good description. Actually started to mention yesterday that the blocking should provide enough buckle to be sufficient to support at least ine event this month. 

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad!   I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments.
 

What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too!   regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. 
 

what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. 
 

This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow.  This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. 
 

You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 
1958

1964

1966

A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino.  -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy!  We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades!  It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing.  
 

Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950!  If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 

Good Post and Point. Those Factors mentioned are looking more and more likely the culprit. All in tandem. 

24 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've got the H5 gifs from the January system. It looks to me like the EPO knocked the cold our way and then the NAO modulated the TPV in central Canada in just such a way so that the moisture aimed at the the TN Valley. I don't have the H5 gifs for afterwards though.

Alphabet soup indices incoming:

 

I hate to break solidarity with the TRI folks, but I am more of an EPO/ PNA person. This is not an attack on y'all. I love you and want you to live! But y'all can do better with a -NAO that the rest of the TN Valley. If we hadn't had the EPO dislodge the cold and the PNA spike, the TPV that drove the flow beneath it and aimed the moisture at us, might have been pushed by the NAO back to Seattle. (-PDO FTW then?) -NAO 100% helped in that situation, but there was an arm of the TPV acting as a 50/50. I've decided it is not the NAO I want for storms here, it is a semi permanent 50/50 low. You know how the troughs seem to magically try to always drop into the Southwest these days, I want a trough to be like that in the 50/50 spot. You don't have to worry about the NAO then. There will automatically be higher heights over the Davis Straits and Greenland in response to the 50/50. Kind of like Jax's pic above.

I guess we have to wait until the AMO flips, or as the Capital Weather Gang alleged a few days ago, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (another AMO) dies and the Atlantic dramatically cools. 

 

Honestly I think the January storm was a very rare set up in terms of the Continental synoptics. I don't think 8-10 inches of snow is as rare as some of the news folks who were saying this was our biggest snow since '93., but the TPV being in just the right place at just the right time and to have the NINO STJ there too was unique. It really was like a colder, drier version of my rainy "firehose" pattern, like we saw yesterday in some parts of the state.

Lord have mercy, how I would love to see the .qpf we had yesterday and overnight as snow!

 

 

Flooding gifs. Discussion of the MJO and SSWs. EPO vs. NAO. It must be February in the TN Valley! 

We need the guidance of the elk more than ever in these godless, commercial times. 

 

@Greyhoundhave you taken the abomination down yet? It may wish to be removed. Not blaming you or anything, but creepy metal snowmen can be fickle. 

 

Glad to see the 6z GFS showing more cold in the long range. Even got some TN Valley snow under 200 hours! OP Euro still bringing some cold on the 0z run too. 

This latest SSW looking less impressive to me lately, but I think we will see some atmospheric fallout around mid March. 

Welp, I'm off to float down the road in my raft. Will post pics if I survive or catch any food to feed the neighborhood. 

 

 

 

 

Started to put a laugh emoji due to the elk epo thing but, figured wasn't appropriate for the balance of the post. Lol

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right now it is the GEFS vs EPS/GEPS....there is not consensus that a warm-up is permanent.  It may well be the reality, but that is not the case right now.  Pretty substantial model war under way.  The GEFS has had a really bad warm bias this winter. 

Very true. The last upgrade apparently implemented too much warmth adjusting. 

35 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The strong pac jet is mauling any attempts at blocking there. This time of year it's hard to get cold enough for snow without Pacific help. The models were showing a developing -EPO that stayed in place, but now they are briefly showing it going negative and it moves out quickly. The snow/cold in January coincided with a major EPO ridge. It was negative for 6 days and it unloaded cold onto us. Most of our sub zero type cold comes from -EPO incidents. 

Exactly. Need at least a brief interlude of -EPO to inject enough cold with right timing of a Storm System as is with upstream blocking in place. May be enough cold for the higher eles to score regardless with proper Track but, would be tough for lower eles. 

18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yeah I think we are done. Outside of a surprise (March 21’) and a few cold days after a front, I’m turning towards spring severe.


.

Not looking great really. The Pacific has really hurt us once again. The Block may still allow for at least one more shot this month. 

28 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

It's interesting that the euro is really the only model showing it that cold. If the tpv really goes to southern Canada, the models, imo, should be much colder. Maybe they will catch on. That Raindance guy is good from what I understand but he gets the bighead sometimes. I would take a cold March if we can get a ULL out of it that supports snow

Yeah, Radiance did good overall with his outlook. A bit warm in our area with his January call. 

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm probably gonna

A) be wrong

and

B ) get a comment about slinging spaghetti on a wall

but I think we are about 7 - 10 days away from seeing a meaningful end to this cluster             of a pattern we've been in. I was really hoping about this time last week we'd see some better signs by yesterday or today and yeah the Euro above is nice, but I'd like to see all ops at least showing a way out.

Doesn't have to be an epic look. Doesn't mean it has to show snow. All I'm asking is for two weeks without a trough slamming into California. Hopefully the Euro is the first hint of changes brewing. 

 

That satellite imagery Jeff posted yesterday is not too encouraging, but if we can believe the GEFS RMM today (updated late) the mean splits the difference of 30 members between several big phase 8-1-2, several CODs, and several, I guess, status quos: 

 

I especially like the one member that goes back to phase six and stays there for a week. 

GFS OP likes the COD. I still think it lo amp/ borderline traverses COD 8-1-2-3. If it plays out like it did in January, our best chance for a January redo may be around the Raindancewx date of March 1. 

JMA has that low amp 8123. Maybe it'll score a coup

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so

Hopefully it scores a coup. That would be great with HLB. 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the mjo actually?

It's decided to live in 7.

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS wasn't too shabby for E TN and NE TN.  Good to see that storm still on modeling.   There is a chance that could be a good storm for the southern half of the forum area.  Blocking should be in full effect by that time.  

Suppression is more the worry for us in the upper South. However, if a similar setup occurs like strong blocking year's, ala., 1960 the entire area should do well by the time all is said and done. Of course, there was 1973. Deep SE Monster while our area received 1-3" deals. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

It "appears" that modeling has settled on passing through the colder phases of the MJO 8-1-2-3.  That should roughly coincide w/ Feb 14-March7.  We will see if the MJO loops back into colder phases after that.  My guess is that modeling is missing a pass through warmer phases after March 7th...but for now, LR ext modeling is fairly adamant of a 4-6 week cold shot.  I tend to think 3 to be on the safe side.  

I think ur spot on buddy. 

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

If anyone buys the OP GFS outside of 72 hrs, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Murphy I could sell ya

You can bet some weather outlets go with it as well as some Mets. It's beyond anything I can figure. Even on the boards they're raving over it. Used to they'd at least say " it's just happy hour," or it's the GooFuS. 

16 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

I would say the 17th - 20th period is definitely one to watch.

Yeah, looks prime. 

2 hours ago, Icy Hot said:

That was a fascinating article but left me wondering why they didn’t go further in their study to answer their own unanswered questions about teleconnections.

Yeah true. It left me mulling over where the MJO may have been during that period. Charts from then show the 500 mb structure. 

 Here's a good research/study regarding February and March of 1960 in the Southern Appalachian Region. Click Visit Site for Article in PDF Format. 

https://images.app.goo.gl/yVE87S6UhpbiYWUe6