Daniel Boone

On 9/12/2025 at 11:30 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha...sentence about proofreading wasn't proofread 

Lol. Can't believe I did that ! Should wear my Reader's. Big Thumbs don't work too well texting.

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I prefer to study females, but you do you.

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read. 

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. 

While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. 

Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen.

Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing. 

Yeah, the real worry at this juncture is possible impending drought.

23 hours ago, John1122 said:

Just read about a fairly rare SSW taking place over the South Pole. The article said that SSWs that happen there in August-October generally saw BN temps over the Central and Eastern U.S., and a warm Europe the following D-F.  

 

Yeah, some studies show that Correlation. Whether random coincidence or actual effect, probably not enough proof.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The east coast, from the mid-atlantic up to the northeast is very quickly going into full on drought conditions again. Been dry as hell since August 1st. Shades of last fall
 

Yeah, may turn out similar in several ways.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The bizarre MJO behavior continues
 

Yeah, quite the oddity. Couple years ago we had that weird shift with the QBO. Males for interesting research.

5 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

I topped climo last year, last time was 2018-2019. 2022/2023 and 2023/24 were horrific years in the single digits. I am thinking we have things still moving around, a bit early to make an official prediction for upcoming winter. 

We hit Average in this part of the State as well. 

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER.  I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances.  It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina.   Plenty of time for things to change.  The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.   

Yeah, they're basically going full bore canonical Nina Pattern for Winter. If those SST'S in the GOA and along British Columbia remain very warm or even warm further , I'd wager not a canonical Nina Pattern. Looks to me with that a general Trough axis average would be Rockies and Plains. Blocking would allow for a good setup for us with that alignment as it would support slider's and maybe some Miller A's if Jet dives deep enough as trugh would be shunted east under block.. Just some food for positive thoughts.

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks.  We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count.  The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought.  That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide.  We will see.  Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer.  Let's hope that is wrong!

Yeah, it's a concern as I don't like late season near record heat. Doesn't bode well. Hopefully a Monkey Wrench gets thrown in and alters the projected Pattern. Unforeseen TC Activity could do it.

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The actual global pattern for June-August 2025 looks a lot like a blend of 2013, 2018, 2022, 2024 to me, with -2007 in as a confirming anti log (it had low heights south of Alaska as an example). The blend with -2007 also has a similar look to Sept 2025 so far in the US. The temp blend with 2007 supports the West getting pretty cold in Fall, then it spreads East, peaks in December, and retreats until February when it returns for the Plains. Pretty boiler plate. I don't fully buy it. But it does support some pretty cold periods in the Southwest, which is increasingly likely the longer the hurricane season stays dead (now looks likely until Sept 16). The four main years average out to a slightly inactive hurricane season, with cold showing locally in mid-Nov to mid-Jan (2013), mid Dec-mid Jan (2018-19), early and late in 2022-23 (Nov, Feb-Apr 7), and January 2025.

 

Great work Man ! 

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

Yeah, that NEPAC Look would help augment and support a +PNA this Winter . Probably +TNH Episodes as well , looking at the whole Pac Profile. If we get some more improvement in the NATL we may get a better Winter Snow wise than most expect. 

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

1 month trend in the PDO region is actually not bad...

Early August 

 

Current 

 

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all show a bias towards upper level troughing near Japan over the next 2 weeks. Still way early and a long ways to go but with Nina enso conditions seeming likely this winter, a bathwater PDO region would be very problematic during met winter. If (and it's a big if) the -PDO collapses over the next 2 months, it would be a pretty big positive sign that winter could be interesting instead of soul crushing. 

Other than major blocking, which can't really be predicted until it's happening, there isn't much to get excited about irt a cold/snowy winter. Just pointing out something worth watching as we move through the next couple months. 

 

Yeah, looking some better out there. NATL looking better as well.

14 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I went to visit my son at ETSU today.  Amazing that the trees are already changing in this area.  I believe an early fall is on tap.  
Looks like we finally got some good rains in middle TN.  Hopefully this is the beginning of the drought being eroded away for middle & hopefully west TN.

Glad you all got a significant Rain. 

56 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

To bad this is CANSIPS this far out,its actually similar to  last year to an extent anyways,but this would be nice with an active jet tapping into the GOM,with a -NAO with that Aluetian LOW

Seasonal snowfall model projecting most of the country well below normal like it did last year. Canada well above Snowfall.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I’m pretty sure the model was forecasting all of that below average snow because it had a country wide blowtorch. So it was right for the wrong reason pretty much. 

Exactly. We averaged normal here. Model had us projected well below snowfall.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter).   We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend.  I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe.  So, this is welcome. 

As of this writing, I'm approaching an inch on the Day. Alot of lightning and thunder. Kmrx put a severe t storm warning out for Jonesville. It just missed my local about a mile to my South as Wallen Ridge and Powell Mountain appeared to do their thing of pulling the Storm South with their Lift.

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. 

Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive)

Here is May-Aug so far:

Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. 

Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ?

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

We had rain all morning.  It lasted for 6-7 hours.  Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer.  Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN.  We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal.  We were well AN on rainfall.  With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time.  The leaves here have started changing.  There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red.  Now, that isn't the norm, but man.  Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color.  That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration.  I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway.  I have seen several in the past couple of weeks.  They like my street for whatever reason.

Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September.  I would guess  right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm.  I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal.   A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit.  Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it.  

The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region.  That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season.  I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms.

Fingers crossed.  @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells. 

We had a couple hours of early morning rain..1.24" Total. Jonesville proper, 2.18". Thar same pecip field moved over your area and kept expanding and backfilling. 

   I'm expecting early cold and snow. May be another November Snowfall. Hopefully, an old fashioned big one.

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Ryan Hall video I was watching, he said 2010-11 was an 85 percent analog match for this coming winter. Not exactly sure where he's seeing that but it was very snowy that winter for my area at least. 

I saw that Video. 2010-11 was a great Winter. Basically all Forecasters were predicting a mild one due to the formidable La nina. Upstream blocking crapped their Outlook's.

I saw where 62-63 is being thrown around some as well. That one was just bitter. Not any big Snows but many Snowfalls. Blocking once again ruled the Roost.

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar. 

Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well. 

12 hours ago, IronTy said:

Only wild card for me is the North Atlantic water temps.  You have to go back to around 2015 to find BN anomalies this time of year like we have now.  Remains to be seen how that looks in a few months, but it's something.  GFS control has the NAO negative for the first half of September more or less.  

 

ETA - looking back to the 1980s I can't find an August with a similar north Pacific SST AN anom like we have now, it's almost unprecedented.  2023 had a sort of similar profile (yuck) but the SOI was completely flipped so I don't know if it's a valid analogue.  

Yeah. I brought that up in the Tenn Valley Sub. If those SST'S around Newfoundland remain similar to now along with the QBO State, I think the likelihood of a -NAO is greater than many think. 

55 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Last time August was this dry was 1962 apparently.  The winter of 1962-63 was brutally cold and snowy....I know....that is why I am putting this in banter.

That Winter was weak nina to neutral enso. I'm thinking a -PDO existed. My antique memory is not so good anymore. Should just look it up to be sure. 

46 again here this Morning. Around 40 in Mountain Valley Locations.

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm split on that. Do we need crazy cold source regions? Probably for sustained retro cold. Doubtful for quick intense shots like we get. Long as the AO flips cold will get delivered somewhere in the mid-latitudes. Other teleconnections help forecast exactly where, but as we've discussed it gets nebulous in the last decade or two.

One thing to note is a marine heat wave across much of the northern Pacific Ocean. Parts of the Atlantic are similar. Mercifully it's not all in the Tropical Atlantic. Some hypothesize, and after some success we could say theorize, warmer oceans up north create conditions favorable for blocking. I'm talking general blocking -AO not necessarily cold air destination. So while warm oceans could promote a mild fall, warm SSTs could also set up some winter blocking. 

Current situation is an example of how it can be warmer than normal in Western Canada, while the Southeast is cool. Well that's an old teleconnection too, but for sustained cold the source does need to reload. 

I'm liking the QBO State and the SST'S off Newfoundland. Hopefully they remain similar this Winter. That is if you want a greater likelihood of a -NAO.