Daniel Boone

On 11/5/2025 at 1:17 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Latest ECMWF Seasonal update detects a -PNA -EPO -NAO December. 

Shade's of some 1960's Winter's.

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Be nice if that came along and hooked up with an Arctic Front

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

It was called easternwx.  I remember that day...........  sad to lose everything that was put there.

 

Wright Weather before it. 

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This run backed off on Amounts. We'll see if that's a trend by 0z. I'd expect it to uptick as Lakes are very warm so plenty Upslope to be fed.

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week

If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined.

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

It appears to be focusing strongly on that huge warm pool south of the Aleutians with high pressure centered there. Time will tell if those SST'S are as forecasted and that Ridge sets up predominantly there.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow! By a good margin today’s run has the weakest SPV and highest % of members with a major very early season SSW in late Nov or early Dec: would likely be the earliest major SSW since Nov of 1968!

 

Before this, the weakest SPV was on this run from 2 days ago:

Amazing stuff showing up Larry.

12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Things look to get real interesting the end of the weekend around here. Will make a longer post this evening.

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That would put even Valley Locations in the upper 20's to lower 30's by 4 P.M. !

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Maybe an SSW but in general I like seeing the PV in a weakened state. We really don't need an SSW for blocking. Keep the PV weak and we will get our chances. This would lead us into December.

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Agree completely.. sometimes a SSW Event can foul up a good Pattern.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

From Ryan Maue

Just exclaimed to an esteemed colleague how gobsmacking it was to see -40°C contour at 500 mb over Indiana on November 10th -- so unlikely to be nearly impossible in 2025 let alone 175-years ago in 1850.

Historic cold -- we get to experience the pre-industrial climate in 2025!

This is extremely impressive.

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Absolutely amazing ! Guaranteed heavy duty lake effect. Expect Models to uptick Snow Forcasted Amounts if this continues showing up until game time. Also, possibly a Synoptic Snow event as well.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system.  I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE.  I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

 

 

Looking at the Snow Maps. For whatever Reason the GFS or Euro apparently don't "see" High Knob in Wise County.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

During the 70s, 80s, and 90s I rarely saw snow before Christmas.  But my parents remember lots of snows in the 60s which were early.  It certainly seems that early arriving winters are more normal now with February being less storm - kind of traded one for the other.

Just a quick update so I don't have to post twice.  The Euro continues to advertise a rather vigorous wave w/ the 9-11th cold shot.  The GFS and CMC not so much.  The Euro makes the most sense as that is a very common occurrence when cold are arrives which is that strong.  Something to continue watching.

We were apparently a bit more fortunate over here in the '70's irt November Snowfall. 8" Thanksgiving 1971.  2" early November '74, 4" Nov.12-13, 76. 11" (12" Pennington gap, 16" Big Stone) Nov.26,77. The '80's had no major November Snowfalls other than Higher Elevations in 1987. A few inch or less events ; 1981, 85, 87, 89.

   As you alluded to, the '60's had measurable Snow nearly every November.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We had a forum prior to AmWx.  It was basically the people from this site, but closed down.  We were in the SE forum then.  When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum.  There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area.  Eastern Weather I "think" was its name.  I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is.  It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library.  I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that.  But at least we would have a backup.  Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back.  Lost all of it.

Yeah. There was Wright Weather Board before Eastern that many went to Eastern from as well.

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Noticeable trend southward on 12z ensembles.  Something to watch, but it is a great example of why looking at 500 maps tells the story.  IF(stress IF) that holds, somebody would likely get hammered by that.  Definitely will be watching this for a few days.  Huge grains of salt as climatology really doesn't support snow this early, but Fountain mentioned a great example above of this actually occurring.  It is uncanny how close those maps look.  I will be interested to see the trends.  Also interesting, 2014-15 turned out to be a great winter.  I bet the QBO dipped around then off the top of my head.

I think it was November 11-12 ,2021 we got 4 to 7 inches from anafrontal. Let's not forget last year the first measurable snowfall was November 22. I measured 2.8" . Some Locations higher up had several inches more.

   November had decreased in Snowfall Averages over the last 50 Year's. Maybe that is changing. Who knows. 

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX from this afternoon....

Ridging builds back in Thursday afternoon with warmer temperatures
and quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere..
A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by
late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great
Lakes. A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected.

A few rounds of shortwaves will strengthen the upper-level trough
across the region Sunday night into Monday. Deterministic and
ensemble members are in good agreement even this far out from the
weekend. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of
temperatures less than 32 degrees across the valley next Monday
night, which is a fairly strong signal this far out for a widespread
freeze. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below
0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above
4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air
appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of
winter.

If you notice, KMRX always broadbrushes the elevation regardless of Latitude. Also, Models are showing flakes reaching Valley Floors in SWVA, and NETN. but yet no mention of the possibility . I know it's 5-6 days out but still. 

4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake. 

Hail.

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro weeklies 

Looks like it's factoring Nina with Blocking.

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just looking at this afternoon's Euro Weeklies....

1.  Still looks like a warm up mid month followed by winter after Thanksgiving.  December 1-15 looks like a good window for cold.

2.  Fly in the ointment is a little belly ridge over Texas which might try to shunt systems to our north.

3.  The control run is very aggressive.

4.  The Euro will often(sometimes woefully) under model eastern cold at range.  It is shoulder season, and it could still be badly wrong.

5.  American LR ext modeling (Euro Weeklies equivalent) will be cold on some runs for December and at other times....hook a mid continent trough into the NAO.  We really might not want a -NAO in December.  Still too early in the season to be a true playa IMHO.

6.  Overall, I still like a cold start to December which is followed by a warm-up.  That fits the pattern of recent winters.  Cosgrove's "late start" to winter idea is supported by this morning's GFS seasonals.  I still think it gets cold early, warms, and then is a crap shoot.  I tend to favor a return to winter after mid-late January. That second cold shot often favors western areas of our forum.  This year, due to the QBO, I think the cold manages to get to the spine of the Apps.

 

I usually agree with Coz for the most part but, this time I see no reason to. La ninas typically have early Winter cold followed by mild Feb. He's probably banking on losing the Nina early Winter and thinking that should lead to a cold end. If anything, if early typical nina cold does materialize and it progresses to neutral and the end turns like he thinks, that could mean a long cold Winter.

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon.

I saw that on Radar yesterday. Knew we were getting shafted.

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all. 

Just 0.02" here.

18 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Fall scenery has been epic down here this year. Ready for snow now lol

 

 

Sadly, it was terrible further West. An apparent Blight killed many Leaves in September here. What Color we got was a bit late and from Tree's that were fortunate enough to not been affected from the Blight. Trees are over half bare now. Some Oaks and a few Maples still have some Foliage left.

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of a big trend on today's models to -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Yesterdays models had the NAO very positive for the next 15 days. I like that trend, I think we're wanting to go colder this year. Not huge Winter cold but at least a decent shift to normal Winter conditions unlike so many Winters in the last 10 years. 

It is sure beginning to look that way Chuck. An overall Normal Winter would be a plus for most. That is if you like Snow.

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Upper 20s here as well, forecast low was 36 from MRX.

Yep. Lower than forecasted as usual.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

A little lesson from last year especially with the CANSIPS. The first picture was the modeled temperatures for last January. The second picture is the actual temps we had in January. The third picture is the modeled temps for January 2026. Now this can go either way but I don't put much stock in these long range predictions anymore.

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Yeah, all the lr(long range) Model's have Enso factored in very high. You can see La nina footprint.

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Been reading a lot from Eric Webb, who has found that high solar/-QBO/Nina winters stack up as front loaded with December and January being generally wintery, with a weak PV, and a lean towards +PNA/-NAO/+AO, and that they generally flip to the opposite in February. 

Read that too. His research shows pretty high percentage.