Daniel Boone

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I saw that. With the southeast trend, Jacksonville will probably get a foot. 

Historically that's prime Time we got Big Snowstorms but, our Luck this Year it'll find a way to miss one way or another. 

    That System Yesterday and last Night dumped 4-6 inches in Southern West Virginia and Tazewell, Bland and Craig Counties in Virginia. Had that System been 75-100 Miles further West we'd all faired well from the Plateau East. I wound up with 0.7" here from from this System.

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Amazing to see a road that I run on almost every day...show up in the newsfeed.  Photo number one for the win.  That was an intense band today, Holston.  One of these days you are gonna pass me while I am running.  Just look for the slow guy who is in his 50s w/ glasses!  I don't wear plush running gear.  

So you're the guy I passed running there recently that looked like Clark Kent. 

That was an intense band. I'd bet there for a bit it was at least 3" per Hour Rate.

20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can't post it. File is to large.  I guess I've been posting to many lol

Use Freeimage . Download pic to it then cooy and paste addy from pic to your browser and copy addy and paste in post box on here.. it'll post the Image. That's how you get around them cutting your allowed file size. I can't post anything without a host as they only allow me 123 kbs .

Another shot out front. No huge butterfly in this one , lol.

A half inch now but Snow has falling lighter now.

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Currently in the box area, looking NNW:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just started pouring here. Dime and Nickel Size.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think we warmed up for a while from around just after Christmas through mid January. Torch weenies kept predicting a big torch, but it was just average or a little abv. average. 

Yeah, it went against the grain of the MJO. It was well above normal until the 13th. 

8 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

It is flat out pouring the snow south of Kingsport to Colonial Heights. Everything is covered and probably close to an inch now.

Yeah, that heavy snow developed over Scott and Wise Counties and expanded. 

An area of heavy Snow developed to my East , Scott County up through Wise County. Norton down to Duffield to just northwest of Kingsport..slow moving as well. 

     The Wind once again is mainly from the NNE. That's downsloping here off big Black Mountain in Eastern Harlan County and what's known as little Black just south of it along the Border. Big Black is 4200+- elevation. Little Black around 3500. Stone Mountain is South of it and is just Noth of Pennington Gap.. it's just around 2500 feet in that section.

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Moderate to heavy snow here now. I left the mountain for a basketball game it's even snowing hard in town.

I saw before Dark on Resortcams La follette was already getting some decent sized Flakes. I noticed your area showed no Snow on MRX Graphic. I hadn't checked but did the NBM show no Snow for that Area ?

Lt dusting here . Very small Flakes so far. 

46 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Currently snowing and 32 degrees.  

No way, not there, lol

12 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

My first thought when I saw the snow hole was that maybe the high res models were overdoing some terrain effect... I didn't realize you were on the Virginia side of the Cumberland Gap, maybe the model just creates some super downslope effect in that area to try and more accurately match the erroneous snowfall totals in that area? I didn't realize the models got fed previous local snowfall data for future forecasts but it makes sense that if the models consistently busted high with respect to the erroneous data, someone would try and tweak the geography or something in the model to make it "more" (though in this case less lol) accurate for that location

The Model Ingest System uses Data from "Official Weather Station's" (Airports, NWS Coop Station's etc) and NWS Certified Observers. The NWS also uses Cocorahs Data. I don't know if it's implemented directly into the System or not. Should be. 

Recording and Incorporating all this Data is how the Model's should get better over Time. 

       The Model's also incorporate Weather Baloon, Atmospheric Sensor Data etc.. 

     There is downsloping that occurs, particularly from off the Mountains along the KY Border. Model's do overemphasize that sometimes.  It doesn't affect exteme Northern Lee much as it sits on a Plateau that runs on across the Norton and Wise area in Wise County.

      The main thing that is affecting the Model's irt Lee County is the Official Pennington gap Station. It is the only Official NWS Station in the County. It is at the Sewer Plant along the Powell River, Operated by Town Employees. 

   I have checked out the Site personally and found notable flaws that affect accuracy greatly. It is not manned 24/7. Just Day Shift. I'll hopefully get over there before long and get a Couple of Pics and post. 

33 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

It's kind of interesting how some of the models show the snow hole there and some don't. RDPS and NAM don't have it, but the NAM 3k does and the HRW literally has snow on all sides of Lee County but stops right around the county lines lol. Are certain models being fed the bad data while others don't have the resolution to pick up on it?

Could be the Case. I contacted NOAA via Email. Not heard back. Spoke with NWS and they couldn't give an explanation to why the Snow Data was doing that. They had my Reports and Cocorahs Reports that all showed well above what the NOHRSC Data showed. They couldn't figure where or how they came up with that.

   I'd say it has to be them just using the Pennington gap Site Data. That's the only thing I can see how they came up with that. Sad. That Site needs moved to a better Location or just shut down.

22 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Short range models have been consistently showing this dusting of snow tomorrow evening. I'll take any accumulation I can get if the ground temps cool off enough and we get enough moisture from the lee side low. Nickels and dimes still add up over the course of a winter

 

I see it's showing the my Lee County in the light area again thanks to the bad Data going into the Model's. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I see that Kentucky is getting heavy snow again this evening. This has been one of the most epic winter ever 150 miles north of our area. We are better at warming up from extreme cold and raining than any spot in the nation. 

It dumped it once you get up around Marion on to Blacksburg VA too. Blacksburg NWS shared some Pics on X. 

23 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's closer than any mrx map for here. I got inches before the ice started, and two after. And around 7 from this event and that has the 10 inches at least close to me. According to mrx I had about 3 total inches. They also showed less than .10 ice here and I had almost .4. 

Yeah, I agree it's closer overall John. I noticed it has your location pretty close. Still way off here. I've contacted NOAA. Hope to get a response Tomorrow.

   From what it looks like is what I've mentioned in here as far as this Area is concerned, and that's the flawed Pennington gap Station at the Sewer Plant. It's rightfully located to how it is; full of sh*t. 

57 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Total snow since 1/19/26…

They have it wrong for here. That is affecting Model Outputs as John noted. I'll contact someone regarding that. I don't know if that's estimated or based off Observations or both. Im in central Lee County and have recorded 7.8"

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

I got bored yesterday afternoon and so went across the street and cleared the driveway and sidewalks off for a lady that’s 85 years old and I did the same to my driveway. I am filling it this morning.


.

Cleared mine and am feeling it too. Glad it wasn't the heavy stuff.

4 hours ago, Jed33 said:

It’s currently 1° at the house, and I’m on a hill above the lake. Most certainly is below zero around the sheltered valleys. I also see TRI is reporting -6° Wow! MRX issued a cold weather advisory for just the temperatures as they said they didn’t expect it to get this cold. As others have said, it’s the power of a healthy snowpack. It will do it every time.

Most times they go with what Model Data is printing out like many do anymore. It caused them to miss by a large margin in much of the Area. Sometimes you gotta use logic and incorporate Human Input.

    Not downing them or the Other's as it's just the way things have become nowadays, sadly.

    Until Model's get (if it's really completely possible) more micro precise , if you will, without the Forecasters skilled Input it will remain the same.

Few flakes falling here now.

Here's end of 0Z Run 12Z Thursday.

Rgem still showing possibility for SWVA.

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems  impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

Yes, I know that . I'm saying the possibility at onset or ending as Snow in basically the SWVA Part of the Great Valley as the Euro and RGEM indicated earlier. Black Mountain and High Knob Massif Area.