Daniel Boone

4 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

gotcha i hope i wasnt sounding like a weather weenie wasnt trying to i was just thinking someday that things would have a normal cool fall and normal cold winter like we did in the 2013-2019 period i dont really remember but sometime in that timeframe we had cool fall and cold winter

2013-14 and 2014-15. 

PDO is quickly going deeply negative unfortunately. Doesn't bode well for Winter. Just as it appeared we were finally coming out of that long -PDO stretch, for whatever reason it comes roaring back. 

On 6/28/2025 at 8:43 PM, John1122 said:

Man, it just happened again. Big storm just split and collapsed around me. 

Hp overhead appears to be the culprit to a degree. Unusual for there as you're generally in a prime area for popup Afternoon and Evening Storms. 

On 6/17/2025 at 7:17 AM, Carvers Gap said:

This is the best easy summer for rain in a long time IMBY.  My garden looks like it is on steroids.  

We've been getting basically average Rainfall at my location. Everything is alive and green. I do worry that if a dry spell comes along it could be a bit problematic here. Areas all around have received abundant Rainfall so, no worries for the area as a whole.

On 6/14/2025 at 11:05 PM, jaxjagman said:

Pattern what CANSIPS is showing right now looks maybe similar to last winter.More NINA, weak NINA.I'm surprised it didnt show more blocking into the Hudson with the blocking its showing into around the four corners,but it still looks like a -NAO.Jan would seemingly right now be BN with the blocking its showing into the Western AK/.Bering Sea.Into Feb this blocking shifts into the Bering Sea,this seemingly could bring a early severe threat

Think myself the warm SST'S into the Yellow Sea into the Sea of Japan and off the east coast of Japan are unprecedented to rely on analogs.I mean the warmest SST'S in this region was in 2023 during a strong NINO

Yeah, that warm blob seems to want to be a mainstay.

22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it.  Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent."  It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap!   LOL.  

Yeah, it's easy to do. It's been a Thorn more times than not the last few Years.

11 hours ago, *Flash* said:

I worried about this year’s hurricane season, ya’ll…

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CDF5AFnTR/?mibextid=wwXIfr

That's pretty funny .Good one !Lol

As things look from this juncture ,we have a pretty good shot at a cold/ snowy Winter. The QBO should help lend to a more negative AO and NAO and the other drivers going to a more favorable position I see not much reason to not go for an overall cold and snowy Winter. However ,the IO bears watching as it , as we know, can throw a Monkey Wrench into an otherwise guaranteed Driver Setup but, not too concerned atm .

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The sky over my garden sure is smokey. 

Cannabis ?

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty rare to be this in late May

Been a windier Spring in general than usual this Year. 

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's been like Southeast Asia here this week. Huge drops and very heavy rain at times. There was street flooding Tuesday during a heavy, huge drops shower that blew in sideways. 

Shafted here so far. Western and Northern parts of the County have got bountiful Rain the last couple Days. Thundering now so looking like a decent one rolling in.

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Crazy dry IMBY right now.  I am not used to having to water a bone dry garden in April.

So far with this weeks rounds of Rain NETN and southern sections of Lee, Scott and Washington Counties in SWVA have been short changed. Hopefully things change next couple days. Your Local is much worse than most of the Area . Dry arid conditions next week won't bode well if the System doesn't produce the next couple Days.

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps at 700 mb and above on Thursday may promote golf balls. Who moved the Masters north? 

Also the low levels of forecast soundings are inverted V which allows for some gusty wind.

Valid Thursday April 10

Was just telling my Wife a bit ago that large hail up to golf ball.size is a legitimate threat tomorrow. Those lapse rates can get it done.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z runs for April 9th minimums:

GFS (not quite as cold as that very cold 6Z):

 

Euro (not as cold as GFS):

They're pretty close. Taking into account the Euro's warm bias, pretty much identical.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

6Z gfs is coldest run in several days for April 9th and colder than other current models making it a cold outlier:

Yeah, still expecting some Mountain Snow Showers. Going to be a serious shock to the System after the Heat.

53 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see this multiple cold front pattern be colder than advertised. 

Yes, and the Forecasts will most assuredly be warmer as they adjust to climatology.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Barney is even threatening to make an appearance….in April! No, you’re not seeing things.

12Z Goofy for 8PM on April 8th:

Should be some pretty good snow showers in the Mountains if that pans out. 

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

If this cold verifies, which is growing in likelihood, I will forever remember this as the Tony @dsaurcold wave since he’s been warning us about this potential around Masters time:

Yeah, it's basically inevitable now, unfortunately. 

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

We might need a Spring Banter thread. Anyway the Day 3 looks like a Dinosaur Attack!

 

Looks like it's about to chomp us, lol .

Had a Dusting this Morning. Reports of half to an inch some higher Elevations above 2500ft.

Occasional short lasting snow showers here. Temp. 35.

39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This is almost like connective snow coming across the tops of the mountains and down into the valley. Just starting to lay around 4500'

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Already have snow showers occurring here down to 1700 ft. Heading that way so you guys should do good tonight. Easily 1-3" above 2500, maybe a bit more in spots.

3 hours ago, greendave said:

April Fools anyone?

Yeah, GFS and Euro been hinting at a big one for the MA the last couple Days.ay have Legs for portions of the Area. 500 MB looks rather favorable then.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw some light snow flurries this morning. 

Did here too.

B. Ended with 19.8". Near normal Temperature and Snowfall.