Daniel Boone
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Posts posted by Daniel Boone
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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:
The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago
You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.
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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:
This is a look at what the month looks like to date. Had the right idea blending 2013/2024 -
Jan 2025/2014 doesn't look too different from month to date, but there are hints of changes by Alaska. I don't think the overall look of the pattern will collapse for a bit. But positioning of the key feature will migrate slowly in January.
Good work man !
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My reply from earlier just posted. My phone really fouled up tonight. It's sticking and closing out on me. Tan cleaner and took some things off but still not up to par.
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5 minutes ago, Jed33 said:
I’ve been following the weather for many years. Most years during my childhood (80’s) the weather was oftentimes very cold during the winter and I took note of it. I didn’t write down the dates when the brutally cold air would build in Alaska and Canada, but my dad and I watched it and we knew it would usually eventually be unleashed into the lower 48. I looked it up on google just now and found about 24 cases where the temps were between -70 to the record of -80. These were scattered from Jan 19-20 1952 to Jan 29 1999. The coldest being Jan 27 1989 at -76 and Jan 5 1997 at -77. The ultimate coldest Jan 23 1971 at -80. I don’t see any temps that cold though in the 2000’s. So, there is definitely precedent for it to be lower than -60 with 24 cases at or below-70 in Alaska.
-80 in Prospect Creek Alaska Jan. 23 1971. It was coldest US Record. Coldest lower 48 is -70 Rogers Pass Montana in 1954. -83 NA Record in Snag. Yukon.
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4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
I know it’s all fantasy but I think the 6z GFS was about to give us a new years present if it had run about an extra 36 hours.
That Block will either cause that northern plains/ Southern prairies LP to weaken and drift SE or shift South.
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:
Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period:
- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 3212Z 12/19 EPS:
0Z 12/22 EPS:
You have the maps listed opposite Larry. The bottom is 19th.
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2 minutes ago, *Flash* said:
This look could be a lot worse.
Pretty Standard La Nina looks like.
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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:
JB says there is a 10 to 15 day lag after Europe gets cold until it gets cold in the east.
He believes the trough will back in from the North Atlantic into the east.
That does happen sometimes if Blocks strengthen. Retrogression. There's been quite a number of Occasions of that transpiring. Thing is, it doesn't always of which is a no brainer. Depends on forcing and resistance.
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3 hours ago, *Flash* said:
Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...
Yeah, he's pretty concerned.
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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
Wonder which PV he's talking about in the above? Stratospheric or tropospheric? #PolarVortex doesn't make it clear. It's almost as if he's looking for clicks or something.
A strengthening -NAO can put pressure on the SPV and the TPV. Example from 0z Euro:
I chose 30mb because that pressure level is lower and closer to where the potential -NAO is forming.
The same processes that are helping to create the -NAO on the recent deterministic runs are also fluxing heat poleward at the tropopause.
500mb:
Tropopause:
Pac jet doesn't look terrible to me in deterministic progs. Right now, yeah, that's not good:
We never really want to see it all the way across the Pac. But going forward, looks buckly to me.
Of course that and anything can and will change. I'm encouraged this AM by the OPs finding the -NAO again and that wavy pac jet look. I seen years where that jet was just a fire hose all the way across the Pac in to California.
Good post man !
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11 hours ago, mappy said:
Aww shucks, thanks all!
Yw !
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1 hour ago, mappy said:
Might be the first time in 16 years it’s snowed (even if just flurries) on my anniversary
Happy Anniversary !
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1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:
What I’ve always seen is a -AO & -NAO always trump a -PNA. EPO is not as big of player when the other two are -.
Depends on strength of each really. Location of NAO as well.
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9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January. They have increasingly BN temps. That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today. We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends. In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends. 95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.
Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR.
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47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
The real fun with that is the NAO and Aleutian's highs bridge across the top. They trap a lobe of the TPV in NA. I think the biggest take away from 12z is that HL blocking is showing up across modeling, and the signal is stronger at 12z than yesterday at this time. Good trends.
That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early. Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile.
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21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
That Jan 6-7th Storm was a Monster ! Remember it well. Recorded 13" at the Radio Station amongst the buildings and Streets in Pennington gap. 16" outskirts of Town. 18 to 20" in Western Lee County in Rose Hill area(there was a deformation of sorts that ran across there ). Some Highest Elevations up to 24". As we all know, that went on to be a Major Blizzard in the mid Atlantic with over 40" in area's !
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39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
I was trying to pull the radar imagery from IEM as gif, but the file won't process. Here's a link if anyone wants to check it out:
I think most folks who were alive at that time in upper east TN and SW VA know where the pattern ends up about Jan 7 - 8, 1996.
That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.
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41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
That definitely looks better, but as far as I can tell, there's nary and Aleutian ridge o' death to be seen
I had to go back to early December 1995 to see something similar:
I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.
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Nina HP was well south then . By Christmas a +PNA with the HP centered over the NW and LP over Aleutians. Trough in East. We should further that Winter in increments in Time and see what evolution was.
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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:
I got this one from the NCEP reanalysis site for todays date in 1995:
I used to get mine to post the map now just does Link. Anyway, look what a change by Christmas then.
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This is this day in 1995
Plymouth State Weather Center Compare to Christmas then : Plymouth State Weather Center
I know it just shows Site link but it goes directly to Map.
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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:
Unfortunately, the Aleutian Ridge has been a staple of recent past Nina winters - the big red ball on 500 maps. If forces a Rex block.
Models have a very difficult time "knowing" when it ends - much like the NAO. I don't think there is a lot of data in that area, and that can be a problem. It seems like the Aleutian Ridge has a tendency to disappear with little notice, and the trough kicks almost immediately eastward. Those ice and snow storms that middle and west Tenn have experienced occurred when that Aleutians Ridge pattern relaxed. It seems to me that usually occurs between the first and third weeks of January.
I know some think the trough retrogrades and does not come back. If the NAO goes negative, that could balance things out. We lacked the NAO w/ recent analogs where the trough pulled back, and wouldn't budge.
There is a lot of uncertainty going forward. I generally like uncertainty, because that leaves room for crazy weather. In winter, that could be anything from severe (which I don't like) to winter storms.
I think the key going forward is the NAO going negative. It is the ingredient in many EC storms. That doesn't necessarily help you all just to the west...but it can force sliders in addition to coastals.
Yeah, la nina augmented you might say. Nina actually strengthened a little recently after a steady weakening. Should see a rather fast weakening from here on. I think i'll go back and look at some NPAC Charts from 95-96 and see how or if the AR was prominent then.
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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:
There will likely be some model chaos(and even real time chaos) w/ two strong and very opposite teleconnections IF they verify. The Aleutians Ridge and -NAO are not going to play well together. I suspect we end up w/ a very similar pattern to what we exited, but maybe with the pattern being forced south of where it was due to the NAO and seasonal climatology. It seems like the Yukon will be cold and will send cold air southeast into a suppressed storm track. I do think ridges will roll through between cold shots. But we roll the dice and take our chances if that is indeed the setup. Suppressed storm tracks with cold involved...we take.
The nice thing is that most of the models are eliminating feedback over the Pacific Northwest, and we can see what is a reasonable pattern unfolding. Infinite Baja lows and Pac NW lows.... I guess the question I have now is if there is feedback w/ the Aleutians low and maybe the NAO? Those are two other areas where models will sometimes under-do and over-do things.
Yeah. If that AH will scoot over Alaska and bridge to the -NAO . A retrogression west or SW of the GOA Low would then setup a pretty much solid cold Pattern.
12Z GFS illustrates what you mentioned ; Model Chaos. Rather tricky Pattern for Models to decipher.
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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:
Clippers are hard to get in southern Tenn. Northeast Tenn can benefit from them. Yeah a clipper can happen in Chinook but it'd be tough to get it down here. GaWx is right about the -NAO which could over-achieve northeast only - prolly more like NE USA.
GaWx is a good follow even though mainly Southeast. Close enough his posts can be relevant here. Then I have to whine about how I miss clipper action growing up near KC. Felt like two storm tracks work, clipper and Colorado/SW low. Here it's gotta be near perfect with little margin for error. Guess that's what makes snow in the South special!
Yeah, Larry is a great Asset to American Weather in pretty much all Aspects. Great guy with a Ton of Research Data and Information along with Meteorological Knowledge and Skill.
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Mid to long range discussion- 2025
in Southeastern States
Posted
Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster.