Daniel Boone

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is Montana weather right there.  Indeed, those were some great winters with incredible cold fronts. I should note that I lived in Knoxville then and was just a grade schooler.   And we received a lot of snow there when I was a kid compared to nowadays. Places that were always mentioned were Paducah, Memphis, Crossville.  I thought the Tri-Cities were always cold and snowy.  Unlike today, southwest Virginia was not even on my radar.  My only weather came from Margie Ison on WBIR and my weather radio.  Between those two, I thought I was the stuff.  I have liked weather for a long time!  But then, like today, I was not always right.  

Brother,  you are an inspiring poster !!  I too watched Margie, as a teenager. She was good . 95-96 was closest to 77-78 with just over 50 inches in Pennington gap un my years of observations.  Incidentally,  Wise seasonal state record of 123.5 was recorded that winter.

There have been times we had a ser in tandem with a -nao,  particularly when there's a trough out west. A -pna. Or, when the SER is there when a -NAO sets up. Either case, the SER almost always gets beat down .

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I took a look at the CPC teleconnections just a minute ago.  The AO is forecast to go severely negative and the PNA to go strongly positive.  I don't trust the NAO index...but it rising later this month likely signals an EC storm.  What I "think" is going to happen in early December is a likely +PNA/-AO.  I think we will see some blocking over Greenland, though some has appeared to be east based.  What does that mean?  Likely it means quick moving features that will have difficulty phasing, but northwest flow areas will see some action.  Still early December is pretty hostile territory when it comes to snow IMBY.  I have lived here off-and-on for 37 years, and early December is just not a great time for snow in valley locations.  The mountains and elevation are another story altogether.  We see skiffs, dustings, and flurries, but not big storms.  So, I think it important to note that even though the pattern looks pretty decent.  While here are many things working against snow at this time of year I admittedly note that northwest TN (the new snow Mecca of the forum area) just recently cashed-in.  What a great run for them during recent winters.  Reminds me of the late 70s when I always thought all of the snow kept going to areas around Memphis!  Right now the pattern for the early December time frame is not even close to being in focus...so I don't really have any changes.  I really like the potential pattern that is coming after the warm-up.  Like others, I get a bit skittish when it looks a little too good.  If it is too good to be true.....Anyway, I hope all have a great Thanksgiving.  What a great community!

Late 70's winters were extremely cold/snowy here in Lee County.  72" reported in Pennington gap area in 77-78.

9 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

At last after a lot of trial and error I was finally able to get at least one of the images through! I sure hope this is a preview of winter. 

Exactly the way it looked here in Lee County this morning.

I remember the days of yore and big snows in this area in November.  Just curious, had that tropical system not been in the sw Atlantic,  whether the trough would be situated farther East.  Saw that alluded to in another forum.

Excellent discussion guy's! I remember November '76 well. First flurries the 6th. 1st measurable snow the 13th with 3-4in. Below 1500 ft. 4-6" above. Very cold month that heralded the infamous winter of 77. 

Let's not forget, the Euro does have a warm bias. Even though it is the best medium range model, it does have it's flaws. Not only the warm bias but, also it not being precise in terrain detail in our area.  I.e; the higher terrain along the ky/va border. Much of Buchanan County is not within the higher elevated high knob landform like northern Lee , Wise and Russel Counties are. The snow map clearly shows the Model sees it as it is.

Good luck on that weak to moderate moDIke. Lol. 

Peak here now. 2 weeks behind schedule.  Amazing how late it is. 

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Great post Carvers  but we will indeed have to disagree on the QBO. I look at it more this way, there were 54 months of -QBO during DJF for the last 38.5 years. Only 12 out of 54 saw a moderate -NAO average out for a winter month and 12 is debatable as I point out below regarding Jan 85. When you throw in the fact that it was almost equal from + QBO years, it just doesn't seem like a strong indicator to me.  So a -QBO in winter saw a 20 percent rate of -NAO coinciding with it. +QBO saw a -NAO 12 percent of the time.

As Jeff pointed out, times of change may be a factor. January 85 it flipped from - to + and in reverse, the NAO flipped from + to -.  I even list 85 as -, because technically it was at -.30, but it was + for the latter half of January and rising rapidly during that time. So it could be argued that the split was 11-7-1 on the QBO years that produced -NAO, as the QBO was neutral essentially in Jan 85. 

I'll look later and see if I can find a QBO reading for the 1950s - 1970s. Not been able to find one so far. Not really sure why the -NAO was so common before and why it became so rare over the last 28 years vs the prior 40.

Good stuff John. You would think coming up with what caused the change irt the Nao state from those early years to now could be the key to forecasting it's state. Maybe it is just a cyclical thing but, I'm thinking probably not. Even if it is cycles, what drives those? What's the catalyst ? For whatever reason, maybe it's something from the stratosphere or gw induced  .  Anyway you slice it it's hard to believe it's just by chance.

On 9/24/2018 at 3:36 PM, WVclimo said:

Thanks for sharing the forecasts.  Like yours better.  1969-70 was a 40" winter in this area.  January 1970 was a top 5 month all-time for cold here.  Would love a repeat of that winter.

Same here in the Cumberland gap area. Extremely cold and snowy January following a 10 inch Christmas Snowfall.

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. 

But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV.  And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. 

Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.

Those years you listed stadium were as you said. 77 Nov. Was mild till after 20th then winter set in with a vengeance , long, cold and snowy. 86 was a mild Nov. Then slightly colder than avg. Winter with very snowy spine of apps eastward(note: 2-3 feet of snow April 87 here ). 09-10 cold / snowy Dec thru Feb. . A nws statistic several years ago had a correlation of 60% odds of cold winter when Nov is cold. So, some greater prob. If it's cold.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  It is the most west of the models that I have seen.  However, the NHC is not far from its depiction w its cone.  If so, strong winds will be in the mountains and might be anyway as the winds funnel down the spine of the Apps on the east side.

Right with you on that Carvers. There may even be some fairly strong north downsloping winds in our area of which would cut back on rain amounts here but if euro track pans out, expect rains back to east ky at least for a time.

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Florence on the 12z Euro pushes its precipitation and wind shield slightly closer to NE TN.  Stat tuned.  

If it's center comes into nw nc as depicted on Euro, it's rain shield will cover ne tn.

26 minutes ago, Solak said:

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 12m12 minutes ago

The risk of prolonged extremely heavy rainfall with #Florence is increasing. Remember that flooding is a major cause of inland deaths with tropical cyclones. Get prepared now for the potential for torrential rains! #ncwx

That is more than likely way underdone !

On 9/17/2017 at 6:02 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

2005 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2005-2006 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7).  Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Yes

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes

9-1-2

This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. 

Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). 

The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. 
The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69). 

 

Jacks "cold pool "

Winter 95-96 Wise, Virginia set state seasonal snow record , 123.4 inches!

recorded 52 inches at my local. That feb. storm was followed by record cold. Pennington gap recorded low of -21 the 4th with a high of -4 !