Itstrainingtime

It'd be disappointing to miss this one, at the same time it's kind of a bonus opportunity before the real meat of the pattern change occurs anyway.

I was getting pretty excited until I saw the Ukie. We need the good doctor to deliver a big emphatic "YES" in 30 minutes...

That's where we shopped when I was growing up! I would love a repeat of '96...or '83...or '78. Or a whole bunch of storms from the past 15 years or so. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers in a big way. Tired of mud and high water, that's for sure.

If I remember correctly, every (or almost) computer model had that storm sliding off well to our south until the last 36-48 hours before game time. Paul Knight was on Weather World during the week preceding the storm (it hit on a Sunday) and it was on Wednesday's show that he went against all models and other mets and called for a flush hit. And at least for the southeastern 2/3 of the Commonwealth, flush hit it was. It was one of the great classic storms where the initial forecast was for 3"-6", which was the call late Friday night. Saturday morning it went up to 6"-12". Saturday night it was 12"+, and by Sunday morning it was something like 20"-30". It was super cold too...woke up to moderate snow first thing Sunday morning with an air temperature of 10. Ended up with 30". Got 2" more on Tuesday and then 10" more on Friday. 42" that week was the most weekly snow I ever saw until 2/5 - 2/10/2010 when I got 44".

Interesting modeling war as the Euro wants no part of this save for coastal Delmarva.

That would be a cold powdery snow too. My favorite kind of snowstorm. Bring 'er home!

Horst mentioning a 4-5 day transition to colder weather with an "outside chance of snow on January 13th."

You know it's been a bad winter to date when you walk outside and it feels really cold...and then you realize it's 46 degrees.

You know I posted that primarily with you in mind. Thanks for the compliment!

Oh I've been reading every post in that thread, trust me. To be honest I'm really excited about what is coming but at the same time I really think we have a little more time yet before we see a new pattern result in white gold in our yards. We'll see!

Yep! February 1st to March 15th looks like prime time for us... Question is: can we sneak something in before then?

Hopefully we get a good soaking...we're not looking at any more rain until Monday night.

Great write up MAG. Man...I sure hope you're right...

Here's an excerpt from what Horst had to say this afternoon: Here in the Mid-Atlantic, however, a pattern so wholly owned by the Pacific jet--and devoid of blocking--is a tough thing for snow lovers and skiers. Glancing shots of cold air can make for some accumulating snows in places north of the I-80 corridor, but farther south the shallow cold pushes are so easily routed out that mild rain events are the norm. And this, my friends, is the pattern I see continuing into mid-month...and perhaps even into late month. (Yes, it can snow here in a mild pattern like this...but everything needs to line up just right, so it's a long shot...and it wouldn't last anyway.) For weeks now, I've been hearing rumors of a "dramatic shift to cold, snowy conditions" in the big cities of the East--but these rumors are fueled by nothing more than very unreliable long range computer models. Of course, the frigid air hasn't arrived yet...and won't...for a couple/few more weeks. We need a wholesale shift in the upper-level pattern across the Arctic to make for a sustained southward push of frigid air. While we may actually observer (in reality, not in models) this process begin over the next week or two, for it to come to fruition here (in terms of sustain cold and significant snow) typically takes another week or two beyond that. So, while I'm not ruling out some brushes with winter here in the second half of January, I believe snow lovers' hopes for a significant spell of wintry conditions will hinge on the period from February 1st to March 15th. --Horst

I appreciate those of you who do not perceive me as negative. In the past I have been one of the most active cheerleaders for winter storms...when the pattern supported it. However, we have been in a lousy pattern, we are in a lousy pattern and we look to stay in a less than a lousy pattern for potentially a couple more weeks. I'm not going to get falsely excited when the reality is there is nothing to be excited about. When the pattern looks at least somewhat conducive to winter weather I will say so and jump aboard. Until then... Carry on.

He reiterated as such today. Thanks for posting that. He also once again reminded everyone how unreliable long range models often are. There "might" be a couple of brushes with winter later in January, snow lovers will need to wait until February for an actual wintery pattern.

First, I am not on any ledge or giving up or anything else. I just add what he says on here because quite frankly I don't know of anyone better at long range pattern recognition than Horst. He might not be right...I get it. He's not God. I do think that beyond his very high skill level it's prudent to consider his viewpoint as a possibility. Further, he is saying that of the next 2 months February looks far more wintery. He acknowledges that there will be "brushes" with cold and snow. One thing he said a couple of weeks ago is that he saw January having a 4 to 7 day stretch of wintery weather. That sure is looking mighty good right now. I'm sorry if I've been a thorn lately. I'm just not one to hang hope in something blindly. I'm going to step away for a good while and let you guys have fun without me and my "negative" posts.

Horst punted January weeks ago and no one listened. The fact that he is talking about a cold and snowy February IS encouraging. If I could be totally selfish I would wish for our winter weather now when sun angel is low and temps are near their lowest on average. In February 2010 I had a net 32" on the ground the morning of 2/10. I had grass showing 6 days later.

Horst not backing down one bit from his warm/wet January call from weeks ago: E. Horst, MU WIC@MUweather (2/2) But when will real winter weather return? Recent weeks have featured rumors of a sharp turn to cold conditions in early January. Personally, I don't see it--yet. While there may be some "brushes" with wintry weather...I believe February will be the colder/snowier month.

That's an amazing stat...somewhat misleading. (that's not really the right word) For example, back in November during the fall snowstorm I believe MDT was running 27 or 28 nearly the entire day. The high must have occurred near midnight either at the beginning or end of the day. Still, it's crazy!

Awesome post @psuhoffman and Happy New Year's to everyone!

Agree! Especially PSUhoffman who has posted here in the past. Love his insight.

I guess most of us have "a storm" or weather event that ignited our passion for weather. February 1978 was the storm for me. I was 12 at the time, and the 70s were largely void of winter storms (at least down in our area of the state) until that blizzard hit. I have 2 specific memories...waking up in the middle of the night, turning on our outside floodlight and seeing NOTHING but blowing snow. The visibility was literally zero. All the big boys since (93, 96, etc.) have never reached what I would call a total whiteout like the blizzard of '78 did. Second memory is still sitting in my den...a picture of me standing in our driveway in front of a drift that my dad measured at just over 10'. It was so big we had to contract the township to dig us out with their front end loader. I was already a kid who loved snow, but that storm...boy, that was a game changer.

Approaching 82" for 2018. Wow...

I do as well but honestly feel like we'll have to wait at least 2-3 weeks. God I hope I am wrong.