Itstrainingtime

Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle.

Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while.

I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now.

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

Please understand, I wasn't being critical of you in any way. I don't do that. It was just ironic that the GFS jumped on to something it largely wanted no part of even when the Euro did.

And then...came the 18z GFS.

Thank you for sharing this. I hope you are feeling better. I know that I can harp on certain things incessantly. It's something that I'm aware of and even at my age continue to try and improve on. For years, I've posted about how I actually like it when we get storms that change over to sleet. For me, while I love the thrill of a 2' blizzard, I'd actually prefer a long-lasting winter landscape. To get that, we need something to preserve the pack. And that something is sleet. While I was in Florida reading @Mount Joy Snowman posts during the late January storm about how hard it was sleeting, I was actually giddy. I KNEW when I got home there would be a nice, solid snowpack awaiting me AND I knew it wasn't going anywhere for some time. The past 3 weeks have been Exhibit A of what I've talked about forever. Give me a lot of sleet after a "lot" of snow and we'll reap it for a good long time. Edit: March 1993, I had continuous snow cover for over a week in mid-March. 4" of sleet in the middle of the storm did the trick.

Not a lot, honestly.

You posted 6z...12z is even better!

Even down here, my forecast on Thursday evening (night before the storm) was for "4 or more inches, with the potential for as much as a foot" - the following day, 24.5" fell.

I recorded 5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm along with multiple rounds of lightning and thunder. I was a senior in high school and was worried that I wouldn't graduate until July because of the storm. Fortunately it came on a Friday, so we missed that day but we were back on Monday with a delay.

Also, the 12z Euro says we're still in the hunt this weekend...

Yep, 17 days only came in 17th place but the all-time record is 25 days, so there are a bunch of years in that 15-25 day range.

Should be interesting to see how mid to late next week works out. Some models are already backing down somewhat on the extent of the "heat." I feel like most years warmups are always underdone but this year has been an exception in so many ways.

Some models indicate warmer than that. 70s up into central MD.

I feel pretty good about the storm reaching us. I don't feel nearly as good about it being cold enough. The air mass leading in isn't our friend but there still is a path (narrow) to get at least some snow.

Forecast high for today was 38, at 10:50 in the morning it's 42.

Okay, if that's true, and I'll take your word for it, then please start at least sharing some positive things to balance your posts out. If anyone would look at your posting history in this thread, it is filled with these words/phrases: "Whiff" (a bunch) Wayyy south (a bunch) Rain (too many) Rainer (this is a new one today) Miss (far too often) That is almost literally your posting history here. How are we to accept you if this is all that you contribute?

I'm sure you would have done the same if he was predicting a blizzard, right? You clearly have one agenda here. We've been through this, yet you continue to only post negative stuff in this thread, the Philly thread, the MA thread... Many people, many long time posters have you on ignore. There's a reason for that.

I said last week that this coming weekend had my interest. Suppression just doesn't seem to fit the current regime. I'm much more concerned about over-amped than a whiff south.

By the way, thanks for taking my post yesterday and copy pasting it in other forums. Just when I think you can't get worse, you find new ways to do just that.

I don't think I've ever rooted harder for a storm to hit us.

Even if we don't see more snow this winter, I'm going to have a hard time grading this season below a B or B-. One more significant (6" or more)snowfall will move this winter to an A, especially given the forecasts going into it. Not sure if I'm thinking right grading it this high if we end up well below normal snowfall (which would be the case if we're done) but the past the past few weeks have been remarkable. Glad I returned from FL in time to enjoy it.

MU on the upcoming weekend: During the second half of the weekend, there has been more unwarranted "hype" in recent days regarding a potential winter storm. The odds of that actually happening are very low. Instead, a developing storm system over the southern Plains on Saturday will likely track due east through Sunday and exit into the Atlantic somewhere between South Carolina and northern Florida. Either way, that's too far south for any precipitation to reach northern MD or southern PA, and Sunday will likely just turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and dry with highs in the 40s. Behind the system, early next week should turn out equally as nice with mostly sunny skies accompanying an even bigger moderating trend. Essentially, the weather is going to be a "snoozefest" for at least the next week, and our moderate-to-extreme drought conditions are only going to worsen.

Isn't sleet wonderful? I know it can be demoralizing when we change over, but my goodness it can do absolute wonders for a snowpack. Outside of February 2010, all of our long-lasting packs have had a lot of sleet/freezing rain embedded in it. 10" of snow with a ton of sleet will last so much longer than 24" of cold powder. We've reaped the benefit of those hours of sleet we had back on 1/25. Even with the cold temps we've had since, the ground would look far different today without that sleet.