Itstrainingtime

Upon further review, Lancaster and Lebanon are squarely in the screw zone with more just west and east. GFS brings the inverted trough west of the river to save them.

GFS is down to .5-.75" of QPF for a lot of us. Between 2-3" near Philly. Again, the gradient is tightening/bleeding east.

Pissed about losing gold in women's hockey and worried about getting swept in the morning by the men.

RGEM is less than 2" in parts of Lanco. No big amounts until you get into NJ.

Dude...I can think of something better to daydream about on the freaking beach during the summer...

I would if I could. @MillvilleWxactually wrote it!

Looks like an even tighter gradient as well. Despite the bomb those of us on the western fringe lost some off our totals.

Great writeup on the WPC page. Truly.

True. But we might be in the mid 30s which is different.

MU just released a full discussion. He admits he is low balling most other forecasts but defends his reasoning in a fair way I believe. He also said this is the most difficult forecast in his career and his bust potential is high but he's riding on what he feels will happen. Used several analogs and pattern recognition to make his forecast.

My forecast is 6-12" and grid is 4-7". I think concerns about temps tomorrow is very warranted. It's late February and not early January. Unless it's ripping it will not do a lot during the middle of the day even at 32.

4 different contours in our county alone.

I'm here. Despite my wife's misgivings...

Holy SREFs...

Just realized that WGAL is still calling for just 2-5".

Damn. MU is lock and step with me. 3-6" for all of us and he doesn't go up in amounts until you get into extreme eastern Chester County. Seems quite confident we'll all be in the subsidence zone.

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

"Pappy" (me) has his granddaughter at ZooAmerica this afternoon. What a beautiful day and loving the new guidance! Love being out the day before a snowstorm in shorts!

He does this same thing in 3 different forums. He's been asked to stop repeatedly and refuses to do so. Funky, when everything was trending well yesterday he was largely silent. Of course he's active again today.

Well that matches my call for my area to a T. But is this done bleeding east?

We lost a good bit of QPF.

Agreed

Reasonable my friend, reasonable. Going off of the pattern, my climo and some weight to models, I'm sticking with my 3-6" idea from last evening. My boom beyond that has lowered significantly. I do agree with MU on the idea that the progressive nature will probably lead to a bit more offshore track. You mentioned my other concern...what if we don't have rates tomorrow and then largely miss the coastal? My total goalposts are 2"-8" for my house with 3-6" the most likely outcome. That's not being negative, that's 60 years of storm, climate, pattern and instincts.

Sounds like MillvilleWx screw zone is between 83 and 81 as of now.

Best thing? When the overnight run of the Euro caved, the majority of models have stuck their middle finger in the air right back at it. Very happy that guidance is caving to it.