Itstrainingtime

Yes indeed!

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models.

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week: Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now) Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

Oh, maybe they did close? My wife texted me that it was snowing while kids were getting on the bus. It might have been a bus for a private school.

Yep. Someone mentioned a day or two ago that they didn't buy what the NAM was showing...I sure did.

Add Donegal to the list of schools that did open late. Good for you and your wife for getting your kiddo to school in a real district.

This is exhibit A of why you never want to be close to the southern/southeast edge of a snowfall map. This is from just hours prior to the event. The "blues" were only 30-40 miles farther north in reality which is difficult for a model to nail down precisely, but if you're near the southern edge of any model output snowfall map...brace for the screw-o-rama.

Ah the joy of living in Lanco: @MUweather Despite early mixing issues, this last burst of snow should push snow/sleet totals into the 2-4” range for most areas north of the Turnpike and west of Rt 15 or South Mtn. However, southern parts of Lancaster and Chester Co’s won’t even get a coating.. along with @millersvilleu .

I thought we were still snowing at home, my wife just informed me that it's been pouring rain for at least the last 30 minutes. The only evidence of wintry precip here on Turkey Hill is the tree line behind the office is icy...and that is it.

I'm sorry, he did say "we" but I assumed he meant that for his area in which he lives.

I thought he said that "he" would end up with 1"? He is at home in Dover. It's raining here at work, it is snowing moderately at home.

Home or Mount Joy?

As this heavier batch of precip moves in, I've actually flipped back to a snow/sleet mix in Maytown. Just rain here at work now. Talking to some colleagues at work that live in southern Lanco and there was nothing at all. Just rain with a few ice pellets at the very beginning.

Just saw that officially in Lancaster (MU) the official snowfall total was zero. Nothing measurable fell.

Rain/sleet mix and 31.2. Finished with 0.5" of snow and sleet which is right about what I thought. The GFS got absolutely schooled by the NAM for down this way.

Now up to 31.1 - hoping for some cooling at onset of precip.

Temp is 29 after falling to 27 earlier. Clouds are moving in.

I think @Blizzard of 93should still do pretty well...although the mix line often ends up even farther NW than short-term models indicate. The rest of us need a thump, which is still quite possible.

WGAL responds to the predicted last minute shift north:

It better thump from the onset. Otherwise, even these numbers might not materialize.

Here it is, snowfans: my Storm Outlook Map for Tuesday's #winterstorm! I expect a tight gradient between very little & a half foot of snow across eastern PA & northern NJ. Areas N/W of I-81 should receive a plowable snowfall, but <1" is more likely south of Rt. 30 & east of I-83.

Meanwhile -

I had a brief period of snow, then a lull, then a period of moderate sleet, a lull followed by mist/drizzle. The "rain" amounted to 0.01".