Itstrainingtime

Thing is, I don't recall anyone saying winter was over? I made a post about what other mets were saying from other subs but I certainly never said it was finished. Is the fat lading warming up? Absolutely she is. But while warming up, the game continues on.

Updated: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 337 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Near-term temperature and dew point adjustments * Conditional threat for tornadoes expanded to cover all of south-central Pennsylvania. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Spring-like conditions continues through Wednesday. 2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. 3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like conditions continues through Wednesday. As heights continue to build over the eastern US into Wednesday, temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge +20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more like an average day in mid-May than mid-March. Record-breaking temperatures on Tuesday have already been observed as of 3PM across the region, with more information on those records coming with the 5PM evening climate report. Recent forecast continues to outline record-breaking warmth potential tonight and for high temperatures on Wednesday. See the climate section for more information on possible records. Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal heating, with increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates aloft creating just enough instability for convection. Showers across NW PA have already been observed with better instability/shear slightly north of the border; however, cannot rule out showers/thunderstorms in the near-term across Warren/McKean counties. Focus for shower activity this evening shifts closer to the central-third of the forecast area, based on recent HREF model guidance. KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday) Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central PA with minor changes to the afternoon update today, with changes limited to expanding the CIG1 hatching across the southern tier of Pennsylvania (see more below). The main uncertainty with respect to this threat continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area (maybe SE PA sneaks out a couple breaks early) by sunrise Wednesday. Recent model guidance does continue to like the idea of some shower activity in the morning hours, which could further limit instability for the afternoon/evening hours. Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF have decreased some with recent guidance indicating a second corridor along I-81 and extending closer to the Harrisburg area; however, probabilities have even dropped in this corridor as well. With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend, there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very strong low-level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong as it can be this time of year across western PA. While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop in that area on Wed, they could be strong. KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week and weekend. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation likely. Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point, the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable precipitation are expected. &&

Earliest it's hit 82 in Lancaster in 112 years.

These are days that fascinate me as an all-weather enthusiast - your basic 33 degree disparity between the coast and 10 short miles inland this afternoon: (Rehoboth vs. Georgetown DE)

I wonder if/when MU will claim another victory? He's on South Beach right now...

Officially, Lancaster (MU station) is now at 82 and climbing!

This is ramping up pretty quickly:

Yeah the timing of the front sped up enough that it'll impact us during prime hours now. Yesterday it looked like it wouldn't arrive here until early Thursday which would have greatly mitigated our chances.

Image updates automatically once SPC releases a new update. The map I posted yesterday was their day #3 map for Wednesday. Today's day #3 map (the one that you posted) is for Thursday.

2nd severe threat of the very young season already:

I admit that yesterday was exceptionally nice to be outdoors. And it was obvious judging by the throngs of people on local trails that many, many people were feeling the same way. Having said that, I'm sorry but I found nothing brutal about this winter. I enjoyed every single bitterly cold day we had and I won't apologize for it.

AC will be humming this afternoon. Got up to 71 in the house yesterday and I'm not down with that nonsense again today.

Well there's at least 2 that I've never once seen "waffle" - doesn't mean they're right but I think you're being a little too dismissive just because they don't fit your narrative.

If winter isn't over, the fat lady's warmup is now ramping up a few octaves. Discouraging to see good mets in the New England forum waving the white flag now.

For sure. Just not when you specifically tell us to get our shovels ready.

I mean this in both a fun and respectful way - you say this at least a couple of times every year. I'm pretty sure that I've never had to shovel a single time after you've said that.

Total rainfall here was 0.00". Sigh. Today; however is a gem! Temp is already 67.2!

Just had the first TOR warning issued. Several thunderstorm warnings also out currently.

Heading there as well. To the zoo.

Endless drought talk? What? I haven't said a word in months. Literally.

Not a good look but fits the pattern and seasonal trend. Can already see how the LSV gets jumped on that map. Late developing Miller B.

I am. It's been an ongoing concern for months. That's kind of a strange comment to make when some areas of the LSV are already in a moderate to severe drought.

Thanks for sharing. I'm well below normal as well. I know that many here only care what MDT has recorded as their basis for for determining snowfall, but I'm WELL below what MDT has recorded this winter and quite frankly...to me, that's what matters.

.63" of rain fell yesterday, .94" for the week. Air this morning is noticeably (to me) chillier than it was yesterday. I thought it felt humid, this morning it feels raw. Temp is 39 currently.

Thunderstorm in progress here. Cats aren't happy.