Itstrainingtime

Picked up a shocking .27" of rain yesterday. The tiniest cell popped directly over Maytown and dumped. There was zero rain in any direction outside of town...at least in our general area it literally rained only over about a 2 mile area in circumference.

I will be in Florida from August 17th to the 24th!

Just in - he's concerned about mixing issues southeast of interstate 81 that might hold down accumulations.

I'm surprised that you were able to sneak this post in before Climate Change. He loves to promote cold weather records.

It was 61 at midnight but I only managed to get down to 59.3 from there. Just a splendid weekend. As @Mount Joy Snowmanalluded to, a warmup ensues but nothing that we can't handle after what we've already been through this summer.

@MUweather Due primarily to oppressively warm nights and a slew of days with highs between 89-95F, #July2025 concluded as the 2nd-hottest on record @millersvilleu since 1914. It was also the 10th-wettest on record thanks to a seemingly endless onslaught of slow-moving, drenching T-storms.

I got down to 64 - and 64 never felt so good. 0.42" of rain for me.

0.22" of rain has fallen in Maytown. Looks like part of the Rt. 30 corridor is closer to 3-4" of rain so far.

Cell in Cumberland County is diving more SE and probably away from you. Meanwhile, after getting 0.02" the rain at home has stopped. LOL

Yep, wife just texted that it just arrived. It is a deluge down here at work now.

Nary a drop in Maytown...

No rain at home nor here at work, but the latter might be changing soon. Nothing imminent at home.

My in laws are getting crushed in Landisville.

Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Another note - a lot has been said about flooding/rainfall totals (rightly so) but Elliott is really hyping severe weather this afternoon. He said that CAPE is as high as it ever gets in these parts and he fears that storms will pack winds of 60-70 mph. That concerns me.

I'm at 89 currently.

Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made.

Yep. I've had your yearly total of rain just since May 1st BTW. And I've gotten missed repeatedly over the past 10 days.

From CTP: Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the front will support storms enveloping the region with additional storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95 corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60% chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches.

Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside.

Rain is SO close to me...and yet so far.

This sounds sorta ominous: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... *Elevated risk of excessive rain with some higher end flooding impacts possible across east-central/southeastern PA Thursday SFC-850mb low pressure is progged to move along the southward sinking frontal zone which continues to trend slower with its equatorward progression. There also appears to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form of height falls and right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High/efficient rain rates within low topped warm rain convection combined with ample deep layer moisture /1.5-2+" pwats/ will continue to support an increasingly elevated excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across the southeastern portions of the area. Some model guidance is also showing an inverted trough axis on the NW side of the low track the could be a fulcrum point for heavy rain. WPC (along with neighboring offices LWX/PHI/BGM) discussed the possibility of upgrading the D2 ERO to a moderate risk for eastern PA with this cycle, but given lingering QPF detail uncertainty we decided to collectively stick with an "enhanced" level 2 (out of 4) risk area for now. We will continue to highlight the heavy/excessive rain and potential significant flood threat in the HWO and IDSS partner briefings.

I had a grand total of .26" of rain for the entire weekend. I was fringed or missed in every direction both Saturday and Sunday. (I got nothing yesterday, not even a drop)

Unfortunately, it also now appears that flood concerns are elevated on Thursday: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models show t-storms accompanying the southeastward moving front through CPA on Thursday. A wave of low pressure is now progged to move along the boundary, which has trended slower with its southward/southeastward progression. There also appears to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form of right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High rain rates combined with ample deep layer moisture will continue to support an excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across the southern tier of CPA on Thursday/D4. The slower southward movement may also delay north to south clearing, and we can`t rule out a stray shower lingering early Friday morning in southern tier/far southeast PA. That said, much of the area will be firmly in the dry/cooler sector by Friday afternoon. Behind the front, a comfortably cooler and refreshing airmass (much lower humidity) is poised to arrive just in time to begin the month of August. Slightly below average daytime highs 70-80F and lows 50-60F are forecast along with no rainfall through the first weekend of August. Dewpoints will plummet into the

CTP mentioned this morning that the SE counties will see Heat Indexes approach 100 today...the criteria for an advisory being issued is over 100. I suspect that the LSV will see advisories tomorrow and Wednesday. Also - they used the words "fall like weather" when looking ahead to the end of the week.