Itstrainingtime

I feel much more comfortable seeing it south than north - especially in this setup.

NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked.

Truth!

For tonight's storm the southern extend of the snow zone has shifted northwest like 250 miles over the past 3 days...

I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight?

NAM also looked last night like it was going to be farther N/W of other guidance for Thursday. NAM is riding the hot hand right now... Sorta.

I agree. If we don't see bleeding today I'll feel better. Even if we're in the "snow zone" tomorrow but have lost ground from where we're at now, I'm taking my skeptic hat back from Nut.

You woke up as me today. I don't disagree with anything you're suggesting. I thought yesterday I would take my skeptic hat off...I didn't realize that you were waiting to put it on so soon!

As I said in my first post- Thursday is tenuous. It's a thread the needle deal for sure as we'll only have a small window of opportunity before we lose the air above our heads...

Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco.

Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now... #itshappeningthursday

Yes - confluence. Again, i like the flow aloft...

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm. #itshappeningthursday

Looks like Thursday trended somewhat better- nice front end thump of snow even down here. Do we need to sacrifice Tuesday to get a better outcome Thursday?

@Blizzard of 93 to your point - no one should be making any definitive statements about next week. We just don't know what will happen, and much is still on the table. Trends aren't good, but there is still hope given how close we are to the boundary.

For our big storm 2 weekends ago, I looked just looked at what the NAM and the Euro were depicting for Maytown 24 hours out: NAM: 11" Euro: 26" My final total - 12" I know that @paweather was riding the Euro really hard and ended up disappointed. It's only 1 storm, but it's interesting that the Euro was WAY snowier than reality. This is specific to my locale. Okay, carry on!

Exactly!

I remember the 0z GFS that you posted hours later that gave Carlisle 9" of snow that night. NAM has been doing better than given credit for. It has serious issues just like every other model. I'm waiting patiently for my 40 something inches the Euro was giving me earlier this week. Only post I will make on this. Let's hope this week trends better.

Did Rouzerville join the Tug or something? It's always snowing in Bubbler's hood.

I have only used Ewall - ever. That is plenty to overload my brain.

Exactly!

But it is rare - last year was the first time I recall not dropping below 10 degrees once. And it looks like it might very well happen for the 2nd year in a row.

@Jns2183 That GFS snow map showing 3.9" for LNS is the same model that had 46.5" for LNS 5 days ago. I know I'm in the minority and I also appreciate and respect other's views, but this is why I despise those maps. I think there's a certain feeling that comes over us when we look at a map like that as a snow weenie - can't really describe it, but given how many love those maps, I suspect that the feeling I'm trying to describe is felt by many in here. I just don't like them because the very best thing that they're good at is this... Getting my ( or others) hopes up only to squash them in subsequent runs. I'd rather just not see the 45" or more that I'm not going to actually get. Hopefully - and I mean this - that map is revived in real life and we all get dumped on.

I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over. As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday.

Speaking of north trends and how often they occur - we haven't paid attention to tonight for a couple of days now, but tonight's wave looks like it might produce some snow much farther north than it did 24 hours ago. In fact, snow might very well make it up to DC tonight, last night it was buried some 90 miles further south. (aka, Bubbler's "King's Dominion" special) Doesn't affect us, but it's worth noting and filing away.