Itstrainingtime

Overall though - I have to say this and then I need to do some work: I find what's happening today to be 100% fascinating. We spend hours meticulously breaking down models, analyzing this and that, reaching into our own personal climo history books and memory. And yet - every storm is so unique and different. I know @paweather was/is hoping for up to 10" of snow today, most of us were somewhere between 3-8". Certainly NO one was expecting amounts at or exceeding 1'. And yet, out of nowhere, there are locations just west of Philly taking a solid run towards...who knows? Conshohocken is over 14" and ripping. That can't be predicted by anyone. What an amazing surprise for those people. And that - is why I love the weather as much as I do.

Thanks for the update - Gap is only what...5 or so miles from Parkesburg?

Heh, I'm bouncing around today like I did 50 years ago Jon.

The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout.

Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now.

I'm at 3.2" here, back to all SN.

Sheesh, parts of the Delaware Valley at the 8" mark already - those people gave up 36 hours ago...

Good morning! I don't think there's a traditional mix line with this event - I have sleet mixing in now, but there are reports of snow (mostly sleet, but some are snowing) well to my south across MD and VA. Some of it might be intensity driven, but it's not all of it. I think nut had a good explanation earlier.

Snow/Sleet mix here now.

3" down, have now passed the 30" mark for the season. SN continues.

You said that exactly like Horst would say!

Moderate snow continues here, 2.8" so far.

Riding my 3-6"...we'll see.

Euro even drier - looks like .25" - .50" QPF through tomorrow evening.

Anyway - if we're thumping, sun angle isn't a worry. If it's light snow and 30 degrees at midday, it becomes a concern. On to the Euro...

Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. That's a post from the Philly thread - the pros at Mt. Holly are discussing sun angle.

For the record, I do NOT believe this is an issue tomorrow - I was stunned that he mentioned it. Glenn is one of the best around.

Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4...

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals.

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology"

@Festus Here is Mark Ellinwood's map - I always thought he did a tremendous job with snowfall predictions:

I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory.

Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA)

CTP just hoisted warnings from Perry County down to Franklin and SE of there it looks like. Edit: Fulton County on east. Edit (2): That includes the Skook as well!