Itstrainingtime

Yes sir. I thought about days like this all freaking summer. Double bonus to have it come to us earlier than normal. Couldn't ask for a better group to have fun doing this with. I swear Blizz of 93 tracks for about 21 hours a day this time of year.

I was thinking about that last evening. It often seems like we go from winter to summer overnight, it's nice to have it flip the other way this time.

Do you ever sleep in the winter? I'm sitting at 31 here. Hoping precip arrives before 9am.

That radar is juiced...if only it was going to be all snow...

Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead.

Thanks...I was reading in the forum to our south it was warmer. I should have looked for myself.

I think it was kind of warm like the GFS.

Interesting battle setting up between the Euro/Ukie against the rest. Up until about 2 years ago you could take that combo to the bank. Not so much last year...who will grab the early lead in winter 2018-19?...

And I think that's why this is only an 8 hour storm.

I think you'll be closer to the 6 but in your range. I know nothing though.

I think 8" of so is probably gonna be about the max with this baby...it really looks like about an 8 hour storm give or take followed by some drizzle. There just won't be enough time for amounts to get much above that.

I didn't want to start his day off on a bad note. (Hi Steve!)

I miss @heavy_wx and his analysis in here. I never understood a word he said but i could always tell when we were getting the goods. Random guess: LNS: 2.5" MDT: 3.1" Canderson/Sauss: 4" Blizzard of 93: 4.5" UNV: 6" MAG: 7" Williamsport: 7.5"

Wow! Even I'm in the 3"-7" range. If I get over 3" I'll do a little dance, make a little love, and get down tonight... Nah. I'll just be giddy.

Hey! Welcome back. What are you thinking for these parts?

I stand by what I said yesterday. 6" or more for you. Embrace and enjoy!

Appreciate your thoughts...and doubly appreciate when you're optimistic.

A lot of times over the past few years I've noticed that you usually guess low on amounts, or at least lower than what I would guess, but I was thinking earlier this morning that 1"-2" at the airport seemed about right. I have a feeling that you'll end up being really close on that...

Thankfully, mercifully...

There was some discussion last night about the deform band, and that is a potential wildcard in how much the final tally is.

Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now.

This is where our buddy from Williamsport stays quiet all week and then goes about his business removing 6" of paste while we get our cars washed...

As I said...it was pure fantasy. For most if not all of us it's gone already. I probably shouldn't have posted it, but like Nut said it's just nice to be at the point where purty maps are starting to show up on modeling again.

Overnight run from our friends up north. Obviously this is mere fantasy, but at least we've reached the time of year where fantasy happens. Besides...when is the LSV ever in the bullseye?

Well hello there, Eric... Next week looks quite cold...perhaps more like early December than mid-November with high temps mainly in the 40s here in Lancaster...and in the 30s in the mountains. Saturday through Monday looks mainly cold and dry, before a jet stream amplification in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Obviously it's way too early for details, but given the December-like look (as I see it)...this system could bring snow to parts of northern and western PA...and perhaps even a rain-snow mix here. Again, this system is 8 or 9 days away and so it's a very uncertain forecast--the above is my pattern-based speculation and NOT an official forecast! Behind this nebulous system will come another blast of unseasonably cold air lasting into the following weekend. --Horst