Itstrainingtime

Good morning! I don't think there's a traditional mix line with this event - I have sleet mixing in now, but there are reports of snow (mostly sleet, but some are snowing) well to my south across MD and VA. Some of it might be intensity driven, but it's not all of it. I think nut had a good explanation earlier.

Snow/Sleet mix here now.

3" down, have now passed the 30" mark for the season. SN continues.

You said that exactly like Horst would say!

Moderate snow continues here, 2.8" so far.

Riding my 3-6"...we'll see.

Euro even drier - looks like .25" - .50" QPF through tomorrow evening.

Anyway - if we're thumping, sun angle isn't a worry. If it's light snow and 30 degrees at midday, it becomes a concern. On to the Euro...

Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. That's a post from the Philly thread - the pros at Mt. Holly are discussing sun angle.

For the record, I do NOT believe this is an issue tomorrow - I was stunned that he mentioned it. Glenn is one of the best around.

Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4...

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals.

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology"

@Festus Here is Mark Ellinwood's map - I always thought he did a tremendous job with snowfall predictions:

I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory.

Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA)

CTP just hoisted warnings from Perry County down to Franklin and SE of there it looks like. Edit: Fulton County on east. Edit (2): That includes the Skook as well!

@Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS.

They cut it by 1/3. LNS was 9" on the previous map...

I say they update between 3:30 -4:00. They want to take a good look at the king first. (NAM)

I'll bite on point #3 - we've been lacking a large temperature gradient for much of the winter that has hampered the development of large storms. This is an overexaggerated example - as we roll into March, I'd anticipate a bigger range (gradient) and the opportunity for larger storms to present itself.

That is 100% correct! Para was a biggy snowstorm north and south of the Rt. 30 corridor...Euro filled the center of the sandwich and removed the buns.

Yes - this run as depicted helped those who traditionally mix at the expense of those who don't.

For us...it might actually be better. For those north, obviously not. We might get a little more white gold at the expense of mixing.

I hate my instincts... I woke up today with a bad feeling. Don't know why.