Itstrainingtime

Pretty impressive growth field of cumulous over eastern PA over the past hour and along with that, the first showers have fired in a few locations. Activity is drifting SW as it forms. 

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think this part of the MU commentary should be posted (below).  Albedoman called it.   I suspect the Government will be up here late month if this comes to fruition.   Most farms are fully protected by different laws that "encourage" them to farm so the brand-new US budget is going to take a hit from the Mid Atlantic if the drought continues.  FWIW, this is still not nearly as dry as the 2020 Drought in the Western LSV and slightly westward into the App chain.  where some areas had less than 1/2" of rain over a 2 1/2 to 3 month span.   Areas slightly to my west were in D4 status locally though that did not show on the USGS large scale map as it was micro based.   Hundreds of people had to have their wells drilled again or drilled deeper. 

The Monthly Drought Outlook for June forecasts a developing and worsening drought across a large portion of the mid-Atlantic States, including most of MD and PA (see below).

 With little rain ahead in the foreseeable future, expect large diurnal temperature variations to continue and impacts from the drought to become more detrimental and far-reaching. By mid-June, farmers may need to begin irrigation efforts to prevent crops from dying. Water shortages will also become a concern, and water restrictions could certainly become a reality by the end of June or July. The duration and severity of a drought are very difficult to predict. One soaking rainfall of just 2-3 inches can change everything, but it doesn't look good in the coming weeks..

 

 

 

 

Ah, so someone does read his thoughts.  I was going to provide a bullet-point synopsis but decided to see if anyone would read and then comment. LOL

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

When is the next one, that is the big question. 

Not in the next 7-10 days.   

The first 90-degree day of the year is officially “in the books” at @millersvilleu. The #June2nd record high of 98F from 1925 is out of reach, but the high should still reach 94F or 95F.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere pivots over PA mid next week on the GFS.  850 Anamolies

 

 

From Elliott's summer outlook, this might be the last bonafide BN weather before the heat really ratchets up...he's going HOT for July and August. 

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners, sunny and quite warm.  80 here and MDT 84 at 11:45. 

LNS is currently 92 - not often there's that big of a difference on similar weather days like this. 

Here is MU's summer/tropical/drought outlook:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

90 here at 11:50am. Now I'm getting really curious as to how far into the 90s we go...

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, East is the beast tonight and early tomorrow. Still only 69 here at 10AM.    

Holy cow, it's up to 82 here already! (also 82 at MU) 

44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Still 65 here. 12Z HRRR gets the first showers cranking in Lanco, York and Adams around 3PM today.  Fingers crossed.   Pretty widely scattered. 

Looks like CTP has Maytown almost 10 degrees cooler than Rouzerville tomorrow- low 80s out your way, low 70s here. 

My "tried and true" ratio for 90+ degree days (assuming sun through mid-afternoon) is for the temp to reach 80 by 10am. It's currently 80 at 9:49am. Unless something pops early, 2nd straight 90 is all but a lock today. 

90 yesterday followed by a low of 59 this morning. Already up to 68! 

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS is cool to normal and dry going into Mid-June.   We really need this weekend to come through., 

This morning my POPs for Friday night/Saturday/Saturday night were 50/70/50. Now it's 30/50/30...

High today was 90. (90.1)

Currently 71 at 10:15pm.

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

Officially 90 here 

and at MDT, just checked 

Just turn the damn thing on already...

Up to 88.3 in Maytown. Plenty warm enough for me. Tomorrow I'll be reminiscing about snow in Mammoth. 

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

86 outside the house, 73 inside the house. Might be able to go sans AC one more night. 

86 in Maytown as well. 66 inside though.   

30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that prior post clearly did not go through as intended haha. Let’s try this again…..

 

Related, Sterling VA NWS did not issue a single Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the entire month of May anywhere in their forecast area. (first time since 1987) 

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Me too. Just had mine serviced yesterday, ready to go. 

i will add, my daughter, who i think is @Itstrainingtimekid, has not been happy about the lack of AC. In my defense, it has been spectacular sleeping weather with the temps falling overnight. 

As my kids marry and start families, my son in law and daughter in law aren't super thrilled with me...seems that my kids are keeping their homes down in the "ITT chill zone" a little more than they hoped they would.   

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

My house would probably not fall below 77 right now with no AC.  That is not good sleeping weather indeed.   The basement (finished) is cooler but still stuffy if no AC.  It is not insultation as my house stays warm in the winter....my heating bill was paltry this past winter.  Less than $800 for Nov-April. In contrast I know people who had $1500-$2000 heating bills during that time...they are all electric. 

We lost power for 4 hours in 2020 from a storm - temp inside went from 66 up to 75 and that was with temps outside only in the 70s after the storm. At 75, I'm melting. LOL

Areas east of the Susquehanna upgraded to a Moderate Drought: 

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Back door ULL goodness.   The GFS (just a prog, not my forecast) squashes early summer. 

 

WPC's 7 day QPF looks a bit more promising than their outlook that @Jns2183 posted yesterday:

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A not too shabby 71 Nooner temp.    MDT 73. 

74 in Maytown, 73 here at the office on my first day back at work. 

Today marks the 38th anniversary of the great PA Tornado outbreak - 19, yes 19 confirmed tornados on 5/31/1985. I remember my old NOAA weather radio going off over and over and over again during the evening hours as the event unfolded. Worst of it was across northern, and especially NW PA. 

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_May311985

First off, I'd like to thank each of you who sent well wishes to me for our trip. It was so much appreciated and I consider many of you my extended met family.  

Second, I'd like to thank all of you who put up with months of my drivel of excitement over going to Mammoth Lakes. Yes, I'm a giant kid in a 57 year old body. It has been a dream of mine to go there for at least 10 years, and my excitement got the best of me. I'm sorry for my thread cluttering over the past several months.

The trip itself:

Traveling by train was amazing. There are a few caveats to that - I am a train buff. I love trains. And I don't mind the "nuances" of train travel. (delays, cramped quarters, hit or miss food offerings, etc.) My wife and I are not picky, we don't typically get excited when something goes wrong, when traveling we roll with what is going on. That's important when considering Amtrak. If you want seamless, guaranteed on-time experiences, look elsewhere. We had a roomette booked for 95% of our trip. It suited us just fine. We had room to sit and sleep in our private "cabin" and not much more than that. We spent a lot of time during the day enjoying the lounge car where we were able to stretch out more and relax. The entire experience was amazing because we knew exactly what we were getting in to. And we loved it. @Jns2183 - if you have a dream of taking a similar experience, do it! So long as you do your homework and understand the quirks of long-distance train travel, you'll have an amazing experience! 

The United States of America - my dear wife took exactly 3,341 pictures and 143 videos during our odyssey. It will take us months to work through it all. I shared a few peeks into our trip, perhaps in a few months I'll be able to share a separate thread with a picture/video montage. So many incredible sites - if we had one regret (and it really isn't a regret, it was a "it is what it is" kind of thing) was we might have wanted to wait a few more weeks before traveling. We began booking 2 years ago, and at that time we could not foresee the avalanche of snow out west. Many of the places that we wanted to see we could not because of road closures due to snow. The thing is...I wanted to go early enough to SEE snow but was hoping it would be confined to the higher peaks so that travel was pretty much open. Obviously, that was not the case in the far west. Over the last couple of months leading into our trip it became pretty obvious what was happening so again...expectations were adjusted. We traveled through parts of the following states: PA, Maryland, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Montana, Nevada, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. Keep in mind that some of those states, we disembarked our train, rented a car to visit certain areas, then got a later train to continue our trip. Our favorite state as far as beauty? Utah. Breathtaking. Stunning. Diverse. Utah was amazing. Most of the other states were as well in their own ways. 

Mammoth Lakes, California: It is an incredible place to visit. Key word in that sentence is "visit". LOL. It is NOT this guy's retirement community. Single homes often are in the 2-4 million range. Condos can be snagged for as "little" as about $750,000. It is one of California's ultimate playgrounds. There is so much more than snow and skiing in Mammoth - miles hiking and biking trails, fishing, camping - it is an outdoors mecca. And to live in the midst of it will cost more than this guy's salary and savings can muster. It is a true tourist town - mostly empty during the week, packed uncomfortably full on weekends. My wife and I tend to be very casual in nature and there were times where we felt almost "second class" there...some of the people we were around had a lot of money and weren't afraid to let others know it. Not our vibe at all. Minus that, the town is gorgeous. The mountains are majestic. When we arrived, there was about 8' of snow on the ground at our resort. Obviously, that was the most snow I've ever seen. I was hoping to see snow outside of town on the mountain but obviously was treated with a little more coverage.  Even today, there is still about 15' up higher on the ski area. They will easily make it through July- you can buy lift tickets online through 7/31 currently. Funny thing, the lifts now stop running at 1pm each day. It's warm enough that the snow now gets so sticky that they shut down during peak heating. Interesting. 

It was truly a trip of a lifetime. Would i do something like that again? No. We do have other dreams that we're chasing...geez, there are so many incredible things out there to see. We were in Alaska 10 years ago and we're starting to get an itch to go back. We also enjoy warm locales and St. John in the US Virgin Islands is calling us back as well. The past few days have felt odd -  we literally were planning this trip for more than 5 years. We enjoyed every single moment of each day. And now that it's over? It feels...yeah, odd. Sort of empty. But also really glad to be home. We had the kids over on Monday and that was awesome. 

Now - can we please get some freaking rain around here?

Oh yeah, one more thing...currently sitting at 14 mows in Maytown.   

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I sent it by carrier pigeon. Keep waiting. Low of 44 here. 

And a few miles NW of you, my low this morning was 52. (forecast low was 42)