lakeeffectkid383

It’ll come, and it’ll likely be here before we know it. I’m loving this 60-70 degrees and sunshine everyday with mornings starting out in the 40s. Just fantastic!

On the 13th anniversary of the October 13th snowstorm? Sounds perfect lol.

Only thing I can think of was maybe from evaporative cooling as the water evaporated as you were driving around causing whatever moisture was left to freeze? I could be way off though, just a guess lol.

Down to 36 here. By far the coolest of the season. Don’t really see any frost though. Edit: as I head out this morning there is frost on the top of the car. The windshield and windows are just dew but the top and the roof rack have frost on them so I guess you could consider it a light frost this morning here.

I agree with you 1-2’ would be a large event. 2-3’ is a big time event from me, and. 3’ plus event is epic for me. I think for the northtowns it may be slightly less with anything over 2’ being epic thus why the 20” storms in January seemed amazing especially with how frequent they were. To me I don’t think there’s been an epic event since Nov 2014. Would be awesome to see an epic one this year to keep us at our average of 5-6 years in the southtowns

Again I think at all depends what you consider a “big time” event. If it’s 3’ plus theres no way it’s every 2-3 years unless your considering Coleen or Holland a Southtown. To me it’s more like every 5-6 years in the southern metro and southtowns and 10-12 years in the northern metro and north towns.

You can watch the convection die frame by frame as well as the lightning count get cut almost in half each frame. Will be nothing more than glorified showers once they arrive here. Guess that should be expected with a less than 70 degree lake...

TSW issued. Line has a nice bow to it. Let’s see how it holds together as it interacts with that SW wind...

85 out with a 74 degree depewpoint making it feel like mid 90s in October... wow. Highs may not even hit 50 by Friday. Pretty impressive swing.

Yeah I Remember this one as I just bought my house in West Seneca and haven’t moved in yet. I was still living in Amherst and commuting to work in Hamburg and landed up getting stuck at work in Hamburg. Made it to the Tim Hortons at Southwestern and Abbott by the Stadium in OP but there were so many cars stuck and stranded I could not make it down as every major road was just clogged with stranded cars and traffic. I had my 4 wheel drive pickup truck and made it through the snow no problem but had to turn around and head back to work to spend the night cause there was no way I was making it back to Amherst. That was a pretty intense storm and especially with how short the duration was (if I remember correctly there was about 2 feet in 12 hours) and tons of thunder and lightning from what I remember. However, in my opinion I think this storm still falls just short of the big ones of 3’+.

I consider a big one the same way 3’ or more within 20 miles of the city of Buffalo itself or a super anomalous event such as October 2006. The big ones for me in the last 20 years are December 2001 (82” in 5 days) , October 2006 (24” in the second week of October is certainly anomalous), December 2010 (40” in just over 24 hours around Depew/SB/WS), November 2014 (70-90+” in 4 days) Sure the 20”+ events last year were impressive especially considering the frequency of them with how close they hit and the brutal cold that hit with the one but to me they’re not the blockbusters like the other ones I named above. Just my opinion but I’m still waiting for that big one for my 4th winter in West Seneca.

Last big one was Nov 2014 so are we due this year lol?

Glad the site is back up but not sure I’m a fan of the new look, maybe will just take some time to get used to. Looking at the medium to long range it looks like a good cool down Friday into this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s which is a bit below normal but nothing crazy, then the last several runs have reverted right back to around average temperatures with highs from 60-70 degrees depending on the day. Honestly to me this would be perfect as it’s only the beginning of October and that weather is perfect for doing outdoor activities/festivals now that we have 2 kids. Winter will be here before you know it and as BuffaloWeather has said on here many times until you get to early November it’s really tough to get any kind of snow anyways so why waste all the lakes energy on below average days with 40s and 50s and rain.

“Only” 2.3” of rain here overnight (all from 3AM to 5AM). Finding numerous reports of 4-5 inches near Blackrock/Riverside area of Buffalo up to the South Grand Island Bridge. Wow is all I can say. There is flooding literally everywhere. Niagara Falls Blvd underwater with multiple stranded cars as well as reports of stranded vehicles all over the city.

Sure is a stormy pattern, picked up close to an inch of rain yesterday and another 0.84" this morning in less than an hour with those storms. Definitely much needed as my lawn is totally brown. Looks like we could get some more storms this evening and overnight tonight.

Most constant thunder and lightning I've seen since I've moved to West Seneca. Flashes literally every 3 seconds at most. Storm looks pretty intense on radar, surprised its not severe.

So is this just for the Cleveland office or across all the NWS offices?

Anyone know why it’s only Lake Erie that kills convection? As you said it’s crossed over other Great Lakes since yesterday, of which are also colder than Lake Erie due to their depth.

Not a chance. Those things fell apart quicker than the Sabres after a November last year. Until the lake is warmer than the surrounding air you can forget about storms surviving. There's a severe thunderstorm warning here and I have no idea why, as the storms have literally completely fallen apart. Oh well, only about another month or so until the lake temp should start adding instability instead of stability to storms.

This “heatwave” has been a HUGE bust here. Was 82 for a high yesterday with the heat index never getting above 90 and today we hit 85 for a brief moment but the temp has slipped back down to 82 with overcast and a current heat index of 91. Trust me I’m not complaining because this is still plenty hot enough for me but for all the hype surrounding this heatwave on social media and news outlets it’s been nothing but a dud.

They may dry up as soon as they hit that strong SW lake breeze off Erie. Have a feeling they’ll fall apart south of IAG to Lockport with secondary convection firing south of Hamburg/Boston from the convergence as the NWS stated leaving the metro high and dry. Sun in tried to peak out for a few minutes but the thick cloud cover is right back and wind speeds have picked up even more, prob gusting in the low 20s mph, and temps have actually dropped a degree back to 80 F.

A lot cloudier and cooler than expected so far today, only 81 degrees at work in Hamburg with a stiff breeze. Actually feels the coolest it’s felt all week, on a day a heat advisory is in effect. Maybe the skies will break later and the temps will soar but so far I’m surprised at how cool it still is especially considering it was already 79 degrees at 5 am, I figured that would be a high platform for temps to sky rocket.

You guys are getting pounded and it looks like a whole train of things to come out over Lake Ontario. Only 0.4” here with only broken showers to come according to radar. I bet you guys have another 1-2” coming so would not be surprised to see some 3-4” reports over the Eastern L.O. Counties.

Pretty interesting read on the HWO for Buffalo area. 100-105 is pretty serious stuff around these parts. The tropical remnants of Barry will cross our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms that will likely contain torrential downpours and locally heavy rain. This will elevate the threat for localized flooding. Thursday through Saturday will then be oppressively warm and humid. While apparent temperatures (heat index values) are forecast to climb to around 95 on Thursday and Saturday...they are expected to peak on Friday with readings as high as 100 to 105. At the very least...this would prompt the issuance of heat advisories. It is not out of the question that Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed.