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lakeeffectkid383

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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383

  1. lakeeffectkid383
    Finished with 11.1” here. 9.8” on the ground. Exceeded forecast of 6-10”. The top few inches is very fluffy and the bottom is mashed potatoes. Actually averaged very close to 10:1 with 1.08” of liquid.
  2. lakeeffectkid383
    8.6" in West Seneca at 10:30pm, snow continues to fall. Average just over 7" in my yard with 5 different measurements. Should hit 10" before all is said and done here.
  3. lakeeffectkid383
    7" on the dot in West Seneca as of 9:15pm. It's gonna be close to double digits with the final push the next 2-3 hours before much lighter snows push through before shutting off completely by 2-3 am by the looks of it.
  4. lakeeffectkid383
    I have 5.7" at 8:15 so seems spot on to me as I'm only 4 miles to your SE.
  5. lakeeffectkid383
    HRRR had this exact scenario this morning and we all discounted it including myself. Good call BuffaloWeather saying this was gonna go further NW then modeled.
  6. lakeeffectkid383
    I thought this was supposed to be a long duration event lasting until at least 6am tomorrow morning? If this thing clears out at midnight no way we make it past the low end of the forecast 6-10”. The flake size has dramatically increased in the last few minutes and is coming down much harder, probably 1”-2”/hr now. If we can keep this up till midnight great but that back end is hauling azz through Michigan so maybe it will be done sooner than expected.
  7. lakeeffectkid383
    Mostly snow now but flakes are so tiny it’s gonna take forever to accumulate even though it’s coming down moderately. What times this “death band” supposed to hit? Interested to see if we can make it to 6-10” , it’s gonna be tough with these sugar crystals.
  8. lakeeffectkid383
    Still mixing with sleet in West Seneca. About 3” though...
  9. lakeeffectkid383
    Working in Springville today, snow has switched over to all sleet. Not what I was expecting this far north this early...
  10. lakeeffectkid383
    Actually picked up 1/2” of snow overnight with light snow continuing to fall.
  11. lakeeffectkid383
    Wow GFS!
  12. lakeeffectkid383
    It’s already all snow here and coming down nicely. 32 degrees.
  13. lakeeffectkid383
    My final predictions: KBUF: 8.6” KROC: 11.3” KSYR: 5.9” KART: 9.6” KBGM: 2.8” Good luck everyone!
  14. lakeeffectkid383
    Latest GFS run too...
  15. lakeeffectkid383
    Hey you guys got your fair share in Nov 2016 when BGM got 30” from a Synoptic storm while BUF got nada. Lol. Of course I’m Kidding , but I don’t remember the last widespread synoptic storm in early November in BUF. 2016 missed to the SE and even the storm last year was not much in metro BUF with more about 15-20 miles south once you get up in elevation.
  16. lakeeffectkid383
    06z Euro, again there’s no Kuchie ratios, only 10:1 available. Burlington,VT NWS has already issued WSW off to our East so I would imagine ours should be coming this morning too, but who knows?
  17. lakeeffectkid383
    Make it 4 for 4. Now queue the Euro coming in way west or way East lmao.
  18. lakeeffectkid383
    Man you’re getting spoiled on here now lol. And this is 10:1 , no Kuchie available on 06/18z runs. This is a perfect run for all of us. Verbatim widespread 6-12” and likely warnings for those lake enhanced areas including ROC. As Dave said earlier, things are looking good now, too good for still 2 days out haha.
  19. lakeeffectkid383
  20. lakeeffectkid383
    06z Euro. Mind you this is 10:1 so does not include ratios like the Kuchie maps I post for 00z/12z. Most important thing is a widespread 1/2”-3/4” of QPF. This looks like a high end advisory event to me which is awesome for the first half of November.
  21. lakeeffectkid383
    00z Euro looks good.
  22. lakeeffectkid383
    Nam and gfs both coming in weaker and maybe slightly East. Just a meh blob of low pressure scooting off to our S and E and not that impressive of a precious shield when it’s so weak. Looking more like a 3-5” type event to me which is still a bonus this early in the season but think you can pretty much count out the warning criteria snows. We’ll see what the Euro says but weaker has definitely been the trend the last few runs.
  23. lakeeffectkid383
    12z Euro for those interested.
  24. lakeeffectkid383
    12z GFS is the perfect track for almost the entire forum unless your in the southern tier where there will be some mixing issues. Puts down between 8-12” region wide depending on if you use 10:1 or Kuchie ratios. Only 18 more runs to go!
  25. lakeeffectkid383
    Yep I’d rather not be in the bullseye 96 hours out. It’s likely gonna change if only 50-100 miles E or W and like I said yesterday that could be all the difference. Intresting we went from talking about frigid temps with high ratios to it possibly missing us off to the E to rain possibly mixing in just 24 hours. Again I’m waiting until Saturday night/Sunday morning before getting excited as there’s just too much to go wrong this far out with a system like this.
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