lakeeffectkid383

06z GFS has a huge shift West. Puts the goods right over our forum but not much wiggle room so let’s lock it in. Any further west and we all taint for a good part of the storm. As is now though this would be a nice 4-8” system.

Yep, only about 1/2” QPF now as frozen and ratios aren’t as high as temps don’t really fall till middle to late part of the event.

I'd still proceed with caution, today's event 4 days ago looked like it would be a 3-6" snowfall consistently on all models only to fall apart quickly as we moved inside 2-3 days. Would be awesome to experience a widespread snowfall with midwinter cold and high ratios so early in the season but I'll wait until Sunday's models before feeling confident as there's not much margin for error. If this thing shifts 100 miles either way we could be talking an inch or two.

Euro with ratios, granted 2-3" of this is from today's snow. Still about a foot with ratios, not that I buy ratios that high this early in the season but none the less impressive to see.

Where are these from? I’m assuming the Southern Tier or Boston Hills?

Temp dropped from 38 to 33 here in less than a half an hour and we heavy steady heavy wet snow with huge flakes. Went from rain to sleet to snow in a matter of 5 minutes. Coming down good now. First real flakes of the season!!! Maybe a coating of white before all is said and done with how much it’s coming down out there right now too.

Was literally just looking at this, they just started live streaming this on YouTube yesterday, was down for a few years but remember watching the camera years ago whenever the lake effect band would be in East Aurora and I would be watching the clouds off to my south from Amherst... speaking of I may be moving back there as I am changing jobs and will be working out that way.

Literally the single greatest run I can ever remember for here. Obviously it’s going to change but just dreaming of something like this is absolutely fantastic. What would the winds with something like that be? 80mph ??? Probably couldn’t even sustain lake effect snow with winds of that speed. Look at how close those isobars are!!

Winds are already insane here. Not sure what they’re gusting to yet but literally sounds like a freight train here in West Seneca. Easily the strongest winds since I’ve lived here. Multiple large branches down in my yard already and strongest winds aren’t expected until after midnight, HWW doesn’t even go into effect until 8pm...

Never heard of truewx.... just looked at their page and it looks decent. Please let us know how it is if you try it.

Sure does.

I just got a subscription to weathermodels.com . It is only $12.99 a month which is half the cost of other model subscription sites such as tropicaltidbits or wxbell. It's graphics are fantastic and has all the models you could think of including the Euro, high res Euro (which only goes out to 90hrs but has a 06/18z suite), EPS, and Long Range Euro (47 days). I love how you can also chose your exact geographic region too so you can see every little detail even on global models which you obviously can't see when your looking at a view of the entire CONUS or even NE US. Below I've attached a 2m temp forecast from the GFS zoomed in to the NY region to show detail compared to a zoomed out view. To me it's well worth the price and even more. Excited to use it when we actually have some real snow to track!

Thank you! Just bought model subscription today since we are now at least getting close to interesting weather. 12z gets it down to a minimum of 978 over Michigan/Lake Superior before slowly weakening as it pulls NE, high res wind maps show widespread gust of 60+ mph throughout most of this forum.

This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Hence why the NWS heavily favors the Euro/CMC blend over it. Anytime there’s a cold blast in the 8-10 day range as it gets within 5-7 day timeframe it vanishes. Would have been fun to have an early lake effect event but there will be plenty of time for lake effect as we move into the coming weeks.

What trick or treaters lol? With those wind speeds the kiddos in costume from Buffalo will land up in Syracuse and the ones from Syracuse will end up in Montreal! Halloween cancel for heavy accumulating snow or hurricane force winds? Should be interesting.

Are those at the surface or above? I've never seen surface winds modeled that high outside of a tropical system.

Nothing posted my friend. Blank map.

Wow what a difference for only about 7-8 days out between this and the GFS. Canadian says break out the flip flops and GFS says break out the shovels. Who will win on battle of the Halloween forecast.... stay tuned.

If it does happens it always lands up further north than expected this early in the season. I would love to be on a ridgetop in the Boston Hills for this one. Could be quite a pasting if the latest run is correct (I am skeptical because of the Euro and CMC not agreeing with it however the last several runs of the GFS have showed this scenario in varying degrees of intensity).

Maybe it will be a white Halloween after all.

12z totally flipped the script which lines up much better with the last several runs of the Euro showing well above average heights with a Eastern US ridge setting up towards months end. May need to break out the shorts towards Halloween if the Euro is correct. Probably some nice mid/upper 60s if it pans out. Hope it’s wrong but did not like seeing the GFS totally abandon ship and cave to the consistent Euro.

29.8 here right now. Growing season should be over with a heavy frost.

Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now!

Great find and great read. Thanks for posting. Would be awesome for something similar to happen in several weeks from now but just because there’s a storm in the WPAC does not mean it’s gonna happen again as this article states. One can hope though!