The Iceman

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed at PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October at PHL since 1884. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

RIP Winter 2020-2021 if this comes to fruition. Remember the old adage, "Snow in October, Winter is Over"

Mods feel free to move if this isn't in the right place but I'm just looking for some advice. Right now I'm in a pretty comfy job that is unfortunately very unfulfilling even though I have amazing benefits. I was a met major originally back in college but switched to environmental geography after about 40 credits because I admittedly was smoking too much pot/ doing other things and found that geography was easier and I didn't want to put in the work for meteorology. The only job I could find out of college was in a field completely unrelated to the environment or mapping. I'm actually in accounting now and it's just because it was the easiest/first job available. This has been the theme of my 20's and honestly I'm ready for a change. I was plagued by addiction until I was 25 and have been living sober for almost 5 years now. I just feel like I'm mature enough now to follow my passion this time and complete the major. My worries are how realistic would it be for a school to even take me now? And what would job prospects look like for someone just graduating with a met degree in their mid 30's? Can anyone here offer any guidance or other advice? I'm open to all suggestion even if it's against my goal.

Rest of the week looks fairly above normal. The mid 70's feels balmy this time of the year.

ECM has been straight trash this summer, hard to take it seriously at this point.

Hmmm usually we get the epic trough in late october that lingers through late november that then transitions to ridging for 3 months straight.

Ray up in the NE forum posted his preliminary preliminary winter thoughts yesterday and from what I took from it, it's looking pretty no bueno for winter again this year in these parts. He does say things can certainly change in October, but early signals are pointing to a dud again down here. Not sure how we can manage worse than last year though(1.5")....Hoping my 20 mile move to the north will help me a bit in borderline events.

Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell.

Looks like the flash flood watches should be extended into the lehigh valley and cut further south. Pretty clear how this event is shaping up and it's n and w of 95.

We got a squall near the end that brought the heaviest wind, I wish I saved the radar grab. It was like a severe thunderstorm for 20 mins. Then it passed and we got the backside winds but they weren't nearly as strong as that last squall. I want to say it remained in the 30-40 MPH range after the rain ended. It was a really tense 20 mins or so though and it really tore my area up.

My cousin went down to his place in Cape May and took this video at the height of the storm: https://www.instagram.com/p/CDgZyfSJN4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Finished with 3.14" of rain in Hopewell. The real story though ended up being the wind. Multiple large trees down on my street. Power not expected back until August 9. Trenton recorded a 58 mph gust but I'd estimate we saw a bit higher than that. Looked more in the 70 mph range but I don't have my weather station set up yet at the new house so it will remain a mystery. Really great little storm that exceeded my expectations.

Mt Holly thinking the winds could overperform inland

12z Euro is the ideal track for heavy rain. Low tracks right through NJ, albeit as a tropical storm. Deluges the entire area though. Pretty evident ticks west continue across all guidance.

Very pleasant evening... perfect for the fire pit. Currently 70F with a dew point of 48F.

Thinking today will be the first 90 in many locations.

6z 3k NAM for later this evening... Round 3?

Very surprised the derecho was uneventful for you. Lots of damage across lower bucks county.

Can't wait to check my weather station when I get home to see what kind of wind gusts were recorded. 64 MPH reported about 5 miles to my south in Bristol.

The HRRR brings a round 2 complex through SE PA in the 23z-00z time frame. Doesn't look nearly as potent as what just came through though. Other meso's are more potent this evening but none of them had this morning's complex as organized as it became. I'm a bit skeptical that the atmosphere can recover in time for another round of severe. However, another round of heavy showers with a rumble or 2 doesn't seem out of the question this evening.

Peco reporting almost 250K outages already based out their outage map. Edit: Up to 320K+ on the last update.

Here at work in Trenton, sky got pitch black and we got some pretty decent wind gust. I would estimate in the 50 MPH range, will be interesting to see what the airport reports. All in all not too bad of a boomer and we still have power at the office. 95% chance it's out at my house lol

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.