The Iceman

You said this was a strong nina like a month ago. Now it's solid moderate in your own words. So how isn't it weakening?

They say the big ones are sniffed out at range... Well only 14 days to go til our HECS. It's a beaut of a fantasy storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011300&fh=378

Sorry , that was meant to be sarcasm. I really meant it's way too early to be saying that. In the near term, the AO tanks then the ensembles are kind of torn on where to go from there. The blocking in the NAO region seems to be going nowhere quick and many times the AO follows the NAO. Plus a rise towards neutral after going sharply negative is when we see our biggest events. Imo the pattern looks the best it has all winter starting next week.

AO sure looks to be going positive ...

Most boring pattern in history and no signs of breaking any time soon. I wonder if we ll see any synoptic events in January or if they'll all wash out SE... Seems to be the case going forward...

I'm still not giving up on the 12th yet. Will it most likely fail? yes but still some uncertainty there. I'm going to go a bit weenie to show why I'm still interested but here it goes. The closest model that brings a storm so far is the 12z CMC. It ends up phasing the N stream but just a bit too late. However, take a look at the NAM and RGEM and that piece of energy that phases too late on the CMC is further SE at 84H. Also the GFS doesn't even have that piece of energy Will need some really lucky timing for this one to work out but I don't think the threat is dead, yet. I'll give it until Saturday 00z probably before throwing in the towel. If it does end up sliding harmlessly out to see this would be back to back threats the models sniffed out 8 days in advance and didn't budge.

Still a decent signal for the 12th at least so all is not lost there

Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out we won't see that consistency the rest of winter...

Thanks for sharing. I still love going through your winter storm archive. One of my favorite winter weather sites. Any chance you'll find the time to update it again? If it's something you're interested in at all, I wouldn't mind helping either since I know it's got to be a lot of work putting all the maps together. It's an awesome resource to relive the past winter storms .

I think it's a combination of futility, the Dec. 17th storm going from 95 MECS to SECS last minute, and the fact the pattern has been somewhat of a tease I think are all leading to frustration but I agree that things are looking rocking for the 2nd half of Jan. Seem's like the clipper train opens up and possibly we can get in on some miller B action. Should be fun times ahead and the build up of cold air in the long range combined with the continuation of arctic blocking is very promising. I still think the 12th bears watching too still. Just have to get through this week and we should be tracking threats for the forseeable future imo get some rest...

I think the 12th is our first real threat of this pattern.

32 and sleet

Where do you get upset from that post? Just my own thoughts. We are still threading the needle with every threat with the marginal cold air in place. Do you see high ku potential within 7 days? I don't with that airmass in place unless we get a perfect track.

Its funny how often we talk of needing to thread the needle without a -nao but you still need do the same thing even with it in place. I personally won't feel warm and fuzzy or hyped about this pattern until something interesting shows up on guidance within 7 days. Right now, looks mostly like cold rains or sheared out messes to the south.

Hope you're correct. The lack of cold air continent wide has me concerned though. Combine that with ocean temps in the atl still above normal and things look pretty bleak snow wise for 95 through at least mid month imo.

Woke up to a dusting outside. Anyone else? Nice surprise.

January looks pretty bleak as long as those series of lows continue to rip into AK. We even get good storm tracks but the entire continent is flooded with pac air. I see talks in other sub forums of SSWE have begun. Winter must really be on the brink...

Just lost power in Hopewell. Merry effin Christmas....

Don't rule out 1-3" Sunday evening se pa and NJ. 3km nam picking up on the low level cold.

Yeah definitely buckdd the NW trend and way less amped. Mix line touches 95(still frozen) but sinks back down. It isn't the rgem but it's actually more in line what I'm thinking. Warning level event 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet. 10-15" with lolli's in the 20s N and W of 95 toward Lehigh Valley. Sharp cut off south of 95 though(sorry s. Jersey).

Agree with lv blizzard. Gfs is def out to lunch 95 is going over to sleet at this point for a decent amount of time. Still should be mostly frozen and I still like my call of warning level event for 95 N and W.

Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch.

Yeah coastal areas will probably see rain but that was always the case. There may be a sneaky warm layer we will have to look out for as we get closer if the tucked into the coast members verify.. warm ocean temps may lead to some sleet but I don't know that for sure. Just based more on experience around here. Lows tucked into the coast typically have mixing issues further nw than progged. However we have a high in just about the perfect place. I'm pretty giddy tbh. My expectations are set at warning level(6") and it's looking great for at least that for 95 n and w.

Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance.

I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday.