The Iceman

Don't think the N ticks are done. Good for you and me but bad news for dc/balt. This could honestly end up being PHLs biggest snowfall this year... Wouldn't surprise me with the way it is trending.

2-4" @ 10:1 = 3-6" @ 12:1 just saying

3-6" of pow pow region wide. I'm just going to repeat it until it comes true

3-6" of fluff region wide. Never in doubt

I was 4 but I remember the inches of ice on the streets vividly, never seen anything like it since. Honestly don't even remember the storms themselves, but I remember the streets being like a skating rink.

yikes, the euro ticked even further south. now gives the area nothing on wave 1 or 2. That would be disappointing to not even see a flake after all this.

I count 5 possible events in the next 10 days. Obviously we don't bat 1.000, but even if we bat .500 it'll be a great stretch. Plus the pattern doesn't look to be breaking down anytime soon so the threat train may continue into the end of the month into March. I really can't find anything to bitch about, we are pretty much at normal snowfall on the year and it's active AF. We won't miss every single one.

Uk looks similar to the icon but probably icier. Hard to tell. Overall I like the potential for possible .5" of frozen LE.

Here is the ICON for saturday night, it doesn't do the best with thermals but good to see it kill the primary faster like the cmc:

We are now inside 5 days on this threat and the global are in agreement that some kind of winter event will effect the region this weekend. The gfs hangs on to the primary way too long imo and as a result the area turns to rain but I think with the Arctic air nearby, this is one that has all the makings of a major sleet/ice storm. Here's the 12z cmc. And there is also likely a decent 2-4" thump of snow before the changeover. The ICON also is showing a significant event for 95 n and W. Overall with the snowpack and Arctic air along with the banana high in canada, this one has major cad potential. Discuss here

Definitely a good tick north on wave 1, we get another 24 hours of those and we are sitting pretty. unfortunately another tick south on wave 2. Looking like a one wave event now but we definitely take.

Is 2/14/06 still showing up in the cips analogs for this weekend? Would be crazy to see another massive sleet storm 15 years later. The set up looks very icy and CAD will probably be severely underforecasted. Even if the low amplifies to our sw, I still think we'd see significant icing before tapering to light rain.

I still think this will be 3-6" region wide Wednesday night into thursday when all is said and done. Wave 2 may be another 1-3/2-4 type deal, not as confident that comes north enough. I'll be surprised if wave 1 is a complete fail here though, I think at the very least it will be a 1-3" refresher.

Coating to an inch possible. Nothing major though.

Still think this will end up as a 3-6" storm for the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

What an evil, evil model. First the aforementioned No Hope-well dry slot, and second it is jackpotting VA/DC in the mid range again. Wonder how it'll play out for them I still like 3-6" region wide Wednesday night.

Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January.

Rgem for tonight into tomorrow am. N and W burbs may cash in on 1-3". Nam is much further north and gets warm air further north... May be too warm though imo will be interesting to see if we can get a nice little surprise again.

12z Rgem and nam are both 4-6" of powder region wide with wave 1 Wednesday night. We take.

Coldest morning of the winter in my neck of the woods too. Made it all the way down to 10F.

Doesn't quite get it done but oh is it so close! Epic potential, maybe best of the season.

3 km nam too. Seems like n of the turnpike 1-3" deal. Keeps trending colder though as we get closer and with fresh snowpack, could trend to a nice primer before the main show Weds-Thurs.

It's in clown range, but the HRRR drops 1-3" Monday night into Tuesday from Philly N.

Anyone think Tues could trend enough to get some light snow, coating - 2"? Poor low track but thermals are really close especially nw of 95.

UHI just may be too much to overcome anymore in these borderline situations. Looks like there were similar gradients in dc and balt.