The Iceman

Are you looking at the right paragfs run? Looks like heavy rain almost to the pa/nys border at 6z. Just seems like all guidance is bleeding the wrong way now even the euro was a bit warmer at 06z than 00z. Hopefully we start to see a reversal soon but trends have been more and more liquid the last 24-48 hours.

Overnight guidance only has increased the flood threat this week. Gfs has Philly hitting 60 on Friday morning in addition to 1" on qpf.

06z guidance even warmer. Don't think there is a model that even keeps lehigh valley under 32 now. 084 hr nam is the new king.

Do you have stats showing the icon is trash? Not totally trolling, I just legitimately have never seen icon verification scores one way or another anywhere so a link to see how good or poor it's done recently would be a cool bookmark.

18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though.

Rgem is even warmer than the nam at 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021218/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_84.png

Guess you haven't been paying attention to the nam(and rgem) both cleaning the globals clock the last week in their long range.

Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84

Ensembles seem to think there's a threat. Obviously it's greater on the gefs but naefs still shows some concern: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7

Can't ignore that the se ridge has been significantly under forecasted the last two weeks. It's why dc has failed. As we lose the blocking, it makes sense for it to flex further as a response and with the pv not pressing s as it was, there's nothing to prevent the warm air from scouring out the air mass. Hopefully the pv trends stronger, further s, and the se ridge isn't as strong but I really don't like what I see anymore. Good chance tomorrow is the most frozen of the 3 events next week now.

Honestly the flood threat is now more intriguing than any winter threat next week unless you're in the Poconos. Brutal trends the last 24 hours. But if the gfs and cmc are correct and we see 2 separate 1" basin wide rain storms, we could see some serious flooding. Pretty disappointing developments though coming off a -5sd ao. Maybe late month into March will deliver, but I think we slide into an early spring pattern after next week.

Tomorrow may end up more impactful than mon-tues. Light precip falling with temps well below freezing and have been below freezing for awhile, recipe for disaster.

Looks like the high amplitude phase 7 MJO wave is having more effect than we originally thought. If we didn't have the ao/nao in place, we'd be making a run at the 70s.. the Arctic blast that had been delayed and delayed now looks like barely below normal once it reaches here. Tues threat has devolved overnight to where plain rain is looking like a legit threat for many now because the se ridge pumping. It's a good thing we made out during this 2 week period because it looks like our snow threats are coming to an end. Average snowfall in a moderate nina is pretty good though.

I think I remember you posting that... What an all time great play in weenie history

I think you'd have a better bet starting your own weather forecasting service than looking to get into an existing company without a degree in the field. The field is extremely competitive even with a degree so I'd imagine it's close to impossible to land one without a met degree even if you have a physics background. Maybe someone else can shine better light but this is just my two cents.

This one reminds me a lot of the set up of the December storm which would have played out a lot better of it wasn't December. The amount of sleet showing up so far is concerning but also could be noise with the big pv over top. Early thoughts are 4-8" level with a lot of sleet while central pa gets jacked. Should be all frozen though and this event at the very least should really solidify the glacier before any potential meltdown. Let's hope this one can cap off one hell of a February first half!

28.5" on the year in Hopewell after last night's fluff. 21.5" since Jan 30. What a run this month!

If we get a flush hit by the HA event, we could likely take a full grinch washout and still have snowpack in place for late month...

2.5" of fluff in Hopewell.

Mt holly new map: Edit: idk why the old one always posts. But they significantly increased totals region wide.

Damn I'm trying to say this without coming off like a dick to the guys over there or to ant as I don't know this from personal experience since I don't post there just have seen it happen there... they aren't very kind to people posting model content without analysis... while here we are just happy he's sharing the premium shit

Agreed, the pattern doesn't look torchy at all any time soon, there is a legitimate shot I could have a snowpack the entire month of February which rarely happens in these parts.

I think tonight will be our last "clean" all snow storm for awhile.. upcoming week looks sleety.

Me personally? In Hopewell, NJ we hit 11" snow/sleet on Jan 30-feb 2. Don't think I'll top that this storm but after 7.5" on Sunday, another 3-6" of fluff will be welcome. I thought PHLs biggest snowfall was only 5.9 for some reason... Think they have a really solid chance at 6 inches.

Shit really? When was that? I feel like my friends in the city have told me there's been nothing over 6" all year.