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gymengineer

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Posts posted by gymengineer

  1. 1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

    It dropped precipitously from its prior highs of 100k-200k deaths. Some wobbling at the new high point is expected. But the model is no longer predicting peaks in August with 200k dead last I checked. 

    It was showing in the 80,000’s when the 100,000-240,000 number was being thrown out by the task force. It went up to the 90,000’s, dropped down to around 60,000 and now is up to around 68,800. There were articles written about how no one could figure out where the 100,000 to 240,000 range came from. 
     

    In any case, the model is not working out on the back side of the peak for Italy and Spain. The model is incapable of showing a gradual descent.

  2. 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

    The IMHE model being used by the Federal government and most of the states. It has been pushing totals deaths downward and peak dates earlier with each update. If you watch the Cuomo briefings, he posts data from the model and he is saying NY is at peak, or perhaps even slightly past now. That’s the epicenter in the US right now. 

    Albeit not by much, the IHME model actually went up the last two updates. 

  3. What Alexandria City P.S. is doing for grading in the 4th quarter is that it is pass/no record for secondary students (grades 6-12). So as long as a student earns a 60% or higher, 4th quarter counts as a pass at a flat 100%, with the 4 quarters being 25% each in weight (e.g. (72+68+75+100)/4)). If the student doesn't hit 60%, then 4th quarter does not exist grade-wise, which means the three previous quarters factor in 1/3 each for determining the final percent. 

    • Like 1
  4. 1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

    The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month.  If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close.

    Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.   

    If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

  5. The thing about the IHME model that is striking to me is how quickly it projects the backside of the curve of daily deaths to plunge towards zero. Today was modeled to be in the 420’s for both Italy and Spain. Granted, daily death counts still are reflecting a catching-up, but Italy’s was 542 today while Spain spiked again up to 757. 
     
    The model is showing both countries dropping to under 100 daily deaths in 11 to 13 days. This backside of the curve for each country/region is really going to be significant in determining the final death toll. If it’s not as sharp as in the IHME model, that model’s projection will be too low. 

  6. So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness. 

    • Thanks 2
  7. 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Hi everyone,

    This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

    Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

    Thank you.

    I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

    • Thanks 1
  8. 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

    Ha! 

    The one big difference I did see from the order is that now curbside and other pick-up of food from any restaurants is suspended in MD (but not in VA?).  Unless I read that incorrectly.  That was kind of a shocker, but that may be more temporary, not sure.  I believe you can have things delivered...if a place offers that.  I had patronized "carry-out" places a couple of times recently just to support them, as I know they're going to really suffer economically.

    https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OLC-Interpretive-Guidance-COVID19-07.pdf
     

    See the second paragraph. Restaurants can continue to do carry-out/pickup. Non-essential businesses can no longer continue pickups.  

    • Thanks 1
  9. For physics teachers, this is a great opportunity to apply physics to get your circle of influence to understand what’s going on. 

    d vs t graph- derivative is v vs t. A constant v vs t means a linear d vs t graph. A constant non-zero a vs t graph means a linear v vs t and a curved d vs t graph. 
     

    Once we have to introduce the concept of “jerk,” which will show as a changing a vs t graph, the ripples through the v vs t and d vs t graphs can be complicated to understand. 

    US deaths represented by graph format is currently into “jerk” territory in terms of physics terms.

    • Like 2
  10. Here’s a COVID-19 tracking site that’s been pretty good in terms of matching the MD/DC/VA numbers, and other state numbers: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

    The most startling graphic is the one showing the continued exponential growth in deaths, because that figure is less sensitive to testing capacity (the most sick have had the greatest access to tests, other than VIPs apparently). When the dark blue death-per-day line itself starts showing non-linear growth like the last few days, that’s the sign that things are going not well at all. 

    • Thanks 1
  11. 44 minutes ago, PDIII said:

    I guess we would be looking at something like that ^^^ if we just let nature take its course.

     

    Did you ever calculate what 3% or 1% or even 0.5% of 58 million was before posting? 

  12. My partner was able to go liquor shopping on Friday during the day while I was at the office for the last day until further notice.

    He picked up 7 liters of potato vodka, 3.5 liters of Tanqueray gin, 1.75 liters of Jameson whiskey, and restocked our Cointreau. That should tide us over for 3 weeks. 

    We accidentally ordered 144 rolls of toilet paper by mail late last year so we are still all set in that department.
     

    • Haha 9
  13. 35 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

    I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind? 

    Well the big one that is legendary in that regard is 59/60. Snow season basically started with a storm on 2/13/60 and then three significant events in March

    For BWI: 8.2" 2/13-14/60; 0.5" 2/21/60; 2.0" 2/25/60; 10.5" 3/2-4/60; 5.9" 3/9-10/60; 5.1" 3/16/60. There were 12 snow cover days that March.  

    • Like 2
  14. 15 minutes ago, attml said:

    Wow - That is a great catch!  I just went back and looked at that year and we had 6 inches on the 24th and 5 inches on the 28th.  It looks like somehow my March totals over-wrote my February totals for that year in my Averages spreadsheet?  I am manually correcting it now.  Thank You!

    Once you add those totals in, you actually have 6 seasons above average, not 3. 

  15. It's not the 1960's, but having lived through the 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's and reviewed the stats on the 1970's, I would always prefer the past 10 snow seasons. Yes, it includes 09/10 to start. Then 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 were three very different ways to get to above average. The 2016 blizzard was the best single storm in my lifetime at my location.

    The 70's through the 00's had plenty of crap seasons for the three airports too, so nothing about 16/17 and 17/18 really phased me. If you can get through 75/76 or 80/81 or 88/89 or the 96/97-97/98 combo or 01/02 or 07/08 or multiple other horrid seasons without dying, then 16/17 or 17/18 are just part of the deal of being in this area. Probably the dividing line for looking at the past 10 seasons is last season. Of course the immediate DC area got in on the 10-12" storm, which the morning after still had the feel of  "This was a big one." 

  16. I’ve always taken the long game as a DC area lifer and I’ve described both good and bleak stretches of DC area snow history. Newspapers did their Decade review heading into 2020 with the CWG opting to fold the 2010 part of 2009-2010 into their decade review

    So this is the simplest start of the review of the past 10 winters. I can break it down much more if people have questions.

    The past 10 snow seasons’ average:

    IAD: 27.2”  (above average)

    DCA: 17.2” (above average) 

    BWI: 24.1” (above average)

    Number of the past 10 snow seasons that were above average:

    IAD: 5

    DCA: 5

    BWI: 4

    In other words, just wait and you’ll have a good snow year in our current snow regime.... in spite of any reactionary meltdown every week.

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